Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum     

Clotaire Michel  Helen Crowley  Pia Hannewald  Pierino Lestuzzi  Donat Fäh 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(10):4639-4660

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.  相似文献   

Geology of the Pedwardine district,Herefordshire and Powys     

Helen E. Boynton  C. H. Holland 《Geological Journal》1997,32(3):279-292

The stratigraphy of the Pedwardine inlier of Precambrian (Longmyndian), Tremadoc, and what are now shown to be upper Llandovery rocks is described. The inlier is surrounded by Silurian rocks, including upper Llandovery (two very small areas), Wenlock, Ludlow and Přídolí (Red Downton Formation). The Ludlow rocks provide a distal record of the mass movement recorded more fully in the Wigmore Rolls area to the east. The Pedwardine area lies along the Church Stretton Fault Zone. Though ill-exposed, it shows evidence of the history of faulting, including thrusting. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Denudation and retreat of the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil derived from in situ‐produced 10Be concentration in river sediment          下载免费PDF全文

André A. R. Salgado  Breno R. Marent  Luís F. S. Cherem  Didier Bourlès  Leonardo J. C. Santos  Régis Braucher  Helen N. Barreto 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(3):311-319

The Serra do Mar escarpment, located along the southeastern coast of Brazil, is a high‐elevation passive margin escarpment. This escarpment evolved from the denudation of granites, migmatites and gneisses. The granites outcrop in the form of a ridge along the escarpment crest, due to its differential erosion (‘sugarloaf’ hills) from the surrounding lithologies. Several studies suggest that the passive margin escarpments are actively retreating toward the interior of the continent. However, no prior study has calculated the long‐term denudation rates of Serra do Mar to test this hypothesis. In this study, we measured the in situ‐produced ¹⁰Be concentration in fluvial sediments to quantify the catchment‐wide long‐term denudation rates of the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil. We sampled the fluvial sediments from ten watersheds that drain both sides of the escarpment. The average long‐term denudation rate of the oceanic side is between 2.1‐ and 2.6‐fold higher than the rate of the continental side: 26.04 ± 1.88 mm ka^‐1 (integrating over between 15.8 ka^‐1 and 46.6 ka^‐1) and 11.10 ± 0.37 mm ka^‐1 (integrating over between 52.9 ka^‐1 and 85.4 ka^‐1), respectively. These rates indicate that the coastal base level is controlling the escarpment retreat toward the continental high lands, which is consistent with observations made at other high‐elevation passive margins around the globe. The results also demonstrate the differential erosion along the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil during the Quaternary, where drainages over granites had lower average denudation rates in comparison with those over migmatites and gneisses. Moreover, the results demonstrate that the ocean‐facing catchments have been eroded more intensely than those facing the continent. The results also reveal that drainage over the granites decreases the average denudation rates of the ocean‐facing catchments and the ‘sugarloaf’ hills therefore are natural barriers that slowly retreat once they are exhumed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Decadal variations in a Venus general circulation model     

Helen F. Parish  Gerald Schubert  Richard L. Walterscheid  Sebastien Lebonnois 《Icarus》2011,212(1):42-65

The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), a 3-dimensional Earth-based climate model, has been modified to simulate the dynamics of the Venus atmosphere. The most current finite volume version of CAM is used with Earth-related processes removed, parameters appropriate for Venus introduced, and some basic physics approximations adopted. A simplified Newtonian cooling approximation has been used for the radiation scheme. We use a high resolution (1° by 1° in latitude and longitude) to take account of small-scale dynamical processes that might be important on Venus. A Rayleigh friction approach is used at the lower boundary to represent surface drag, and a similar approach is implemented in the uppermost few model levels providing a ‘sponge layer’ to prevent wave reflection from the upper boundary. The simulations generate superrotation with wind velocities comparable to those measured in the Venus atmosphere by probes and around 50-60% of those measured by cloud tracking. At cloud heights and above the atmosphere is always superrotating with mid-latitude zonal jets that wax and wane on an approximate 10 year cycle. However, below the clouds, the zonal winds vary periodically on a decadal timescale between superrotation and subrotation. Both subrotating and superrotating mid-latitude jets are found in the approximate 40-60 km altitude range. The growth and decay of the sub-cloud level jets also occur on the decadal timescale. Though subrotating zonal winds are found below the clouds, the total angular momentum of the atmosphere is always in the sense of superrotation. The global relative angular momentum of the atmosphere oscillates with an amplitude of about 5% on the approximate 10 year timescale. Symmetric instability in the near surface equatorial atmosphere might be the source of the decadal oscillation in the atmospheric state. Analyses of angular momentum transport show that all the jets are built up by poleward transport by a meridional circulation while angular momentum is redistributed to lower latitudes primarily by transient eddies. Possible changes in the structure of Venus’ cloud level mid-latitude jets measured by Mariner 10, Pioneer Venus, and Venus Express suggest that a cyclic variation similar to that found in the model might occur in the real Venus atmosphere, although no subrotating winds below the cloud level have been observed to date. Venus’ atmosphere must be observed over multi-year timescales and below the clouds if we are to understand its dynamics.  相似文献   

Trust in the fisheries scientific community     

Helen Glenn  Diana TingleySonia Sánchez Maroño  Dennis HolmGurpreet Padda  Ingi Runar EdvardssonAlexis Conides  Kostas KapirisMintewab Bezabih  Premachandra WattageSakari Kuikka 《Marine Policy》2012,36(1):54-72

This paper explores the issue of “trust” in the fisheries science community, a key corollary of effective risk communication. It presents the findings of a survey undertaken in Iceland, Greece, Spain, United Kingdom and Faroe Islands during 2008. The findings reveal differing levels of trust and mistrust in the fisheries science community between countries and between stakeholder groups, demonstrating areas for future attention in the interests of improving fisheries science and management. As this paper explores, unfortunately the “trust” necessary for effective stakeholder cooperation and participation within current fisheries science is currently somewhat lacking. The cited reasons behind this lack of trust include: a lack of soundness, credibility, responsiveness, flexibility and stakeholder involvement, flawed data and weak science, poor communications and political and lobby group interference. Notable from the results is a lack of consensus on the existence of a common language and vision. It is evident, however, that certain aspects of fisheries science are strong contributors to trust and that there are opportunities for improvement.  相似文献   

Tracking eutrophication in Taihu Lake using the diatom record: potential and problems   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Xuhui Dong  Helen Bennion  Rick Battarbee  Xiangdong Yang  Handong Yang  Enfeng Liu 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2008,40(1):413-429

Taihu Lake is the third largest freshwater lake in China and has been experiencing eutrophication problems for several decades. Diatoms in short sediment cores from three bays in northern Taihu Lake were studied in addition to 1-year of seasonal phytoplankton samples in order to evaluate the rate and magnitude of nutrient enrichment. The dominant species found in the phytoplankton samples appeared in high percentages in the surface sediment samples, suggesting that the latter faithfully record the modern diatom flora. The diatom preservation status varied among the three cores, while in all cores the preservation deteriorated with sediment depth. Due to the superior diatom preservation in the core from Mashan Bay, the fossil diatom record of this core and an established diatom total phosphorus (TP) transfer function were used to reconstruct the nutrient history of Taihu Lake. Diatom assemblages changed from Aulacoseira-dominated to other eutrophic planktonic species, such as Stephanodiscus minutulus, Cyclostephanos tholiformis, Cyclotella atomus, C. meneghiniana and S. hantzschii in ca. 1980. Diatom-inferred TP concentrations exhibited little change prior to 1980, with values around 50 μg/l. However, after 1980 TP concentrations increased significantly and remained in excess of 100 μg/l, reflecting eutrophication of Taihu Lake. Comparison with TP measurements in the water column from 1988 to 2004, as well as the analogue analysis among fossil and modern samples, demonstrates that the diatom-TP inference model can reliably hindcast past TP concentrations. Therefore, the baseline TP value of about 50 μg/l, can be used as a restoration target for Taihu Lake. However, due to the complexity of this very large, shallow aquatic ecosystem, caution should be exercised when employing the diatom record to track eutrophication. Further studies on the mechanism of diatom distribution, evolution and preservation are recommended for Taihu Lake.  相似文献   

High‐frequency water quality monitoring in an urban catchment: hydrochemical dynamics,primary production and implications for the Water Framework Directive          下载免费PDF全文

Sarah J. Halliday  Richard A. Skeffington  Andrew J. Wade  Michael J. Bowes  Emma Gozzard  Jonathan R. Newman  Matthew Loewenthal  Elizabeth J. Palmer‐Felgate  Helen P. Jarvie 《水文研究》2015,29(15):3388-3407

This paper describes the hydrochemistry of a lowland, urbanised river‐system, The Cut in England, using in situ sub‐daily sampling. The Cut receives effluent discharges from four major sewage treatment works serving around 190 000 people. These discharges consist largely of treated water, originally abstracted from the River Thames and returned via the water supply network, substantially increasing the natural flow. The hourly water quality data were supplemented by weekly manual sampling with laboratory analysis to check the hourly data and measure further determinands. Mean phosphorus and nitrate concentrations were very high, breaching standards set by EU legislation. Although 56% of the catchment area is agricultural, the hydrochemical dynamics were significantly impacted by effluent discharges which accounted for approximately 50% of the annual P catchment input loads and, on average, 59% of river flow at the monitoring point. Diurnal dissolved oxygen data demonstrated high in‐stream productivity. From a comparison of high frequency and conventional monitoring data, it is inferred that much of the primary production was dominated by benthic algae, largely diatoms. Despite the high productivity and nutrient concentrations, the river water did not become anoxic, and major phytoplankton blooms were not observed. The strong diurnal and annual variation observed showed that assessments of water quality made under the Water Framework Directive (WFD) are sensitive to the time and season of sampling. It is recommended that specific sampling time windows be specified for each determinand, and that WFD targets should be applied in combination to help identify periods of greatest ecological risk. © 2015 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Controls on the contemporary distribution of lake thecamoebians (testate amoebae) within the Greater Toronto Area and their potential as water quality indicators     

Helen M. Roe  R. Timothy Patterson  Graeme T. Swindles 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2010,43(4):955-975

Thecamoebians were examined from 71 surface sediment samples collected from 21 lakes and ponds in the Greater Toronto Area to (1) elucidate the controls on faunal distribution in modern lake environments; and (2) to consider the utility of thecamoebians in quantitative studies of water quality change. This area was chosen because it includes a high density of kettle and other lakes which are threatened by urban development and where water quality has deteriorated locally as a result of contaminant inputs, particularly nutrients. Fifty-eight samples yielded statistically significant thecamoebian populations. The most diverse faunas (highest Shannon Diversity Index values) were recorded in lakes beyond the limits of urban development, although the faunas of all lakes showed signs of sub-optimal conditions. The assemblages were divided into five clusters using Q-mode cluster analysis, supported by Detrended Correspondence Analysis. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) was used to examine species-environment relationships and to explain the observed clusterings. Twenty-four measured environmental variables were considered, including water property attributes (e.g., pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen), substrate characteristics, sediment-based phosphorus (Olsen P) and 11 environmentally available metals. The thecamoebian assemblages showed a strong association with phosphorus, reflecting the eutrophic status of many of the lakes, and locally to elevated conductivity measurements, which appear to reflect road salt inputs associated with winter de-icing operations. Substrate characteristics, total organic carbon and metal contaminants (particularly Cu and Mg) also influenced the faunas of some samples. A series of partial CCAs show that of the measured variables, sedimentary phosphorus has the largest influence on assemblage distribution, explaining 6.98% (P < 0.002) of the total variance. A transfer function was developed for sedimentary phosphorus (Olsen P) using 58 samples from 15 of the studied lakes. The best performing model was based on weighted averaging with inverse deshrinking (WA Inv, r_jack² = 0.33, RMSEP = 102.65 ppm). This model was applied to a small modern thecamoebian dataset from a eutrophic lake in northern Ontario to predict phosphorus and performed satisfactorily. This preliminary study confirms that thecamoebians have considerable potential as quantitative water quality indicators in urbanising regions, particularly in areas influenced by nutrient inputs and road salts.  相似文献   

An Ex Situ Salinity Restoration Assessment Using Legume,Saltbush, and Grass in Australian Soil          下载免费PDF全文

Mohammad S. I. Bhuiyan  Anantanarayanan Raman  Dennis Hodgkins  David Mitchell  Helen Nicol 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2016,44(7):840-848

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Forthcoming events     

Dr Helen Mounsey 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(1):97-98

Tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) produce high winds that can generate waves capable of damaging coral reefs. As cyclones frequently pass through northeast Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), it is important to understand how the spatial distribution of reef damage changes over time. However, direct measurements of wave damage, or even wave heights or wind speeds, are rare within the GBR. An important factor in estimating whether cyclone damage was possible is the magnitude and duration of high‐energy wind and waves. Thus, before the spatio‐temporal dynamics of past cyclone damage can be modelled, it is necessary to reconstruct the spread, intensity, and duration of high‐energy conditions during individual cyclones. This was done every hour along the track taken by each of 85 cyclones that passed near the GBR from 1969 to 2003, by implementing a cyclone wind hindcasting model directly within a raster GIS using cyclone data available from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Three measures of cyclone energy (maximum wind speed—MAX, duration of gales—GALES, and continuous duration of gales—CGALES) were derived from these data. For three cyclones, where field data documenting actual reef damage from cyclone‐generated waves were available, the predictive ability of each measure was assessed statistically. All three performed better in predicting reef damage at sites surveyed along the high‐energy reef front than those surveyed along the more protected reef back. MAX performed best for cyclone Joy (r ² = 0.5), while CGALES performed best for cyclones Ivor (r ² = 0.23) and Justin (r ² = 0.48). Using thresholds for MAX and GALES obtained via comparison with field data of damage, it was possible to produce a preliminary prediction of the risk of wave damage across the GBR from each of the 85 cyclones. The results suggest that while up to two‐thirds of the GBR was at risk from some damage for 30–50% of the time series (～18 out of 35 years), only scattered areas of the region were at risk more frequently than that.  相似文献