基于土地集约利用的长株潭城市群建设用地供需仿真模拟   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

熊鹰  陈云  李静芝  阎晓静 《地理学报》2018,73(3):562-577

土地集约利用反映了土地利用的综合状态,是协调土地供需平衡的重要指标。运用系统动力学（SD）构建城市建设用地供需反馈关系回路以及指标变量函数,在此基础上,建立长株潭城市群建设用地供需系统模型,仿真模拟低土地集约利用度、中等土地集约利用度、高土地集约利用度三种不同状态条件下,2016-2030年区域的建设用地、工业用地和居住用地供需变化趋势。结果表明：① 研究区用地规模仍处于扩张状态,城市建设用地数量增长速度总体较快。但三种发展状态下用地增长规模、速度存有差异;② 在低集约度模式下,建设用地规模及供地数量大,易造成土地资源的浪费;高集约度模式下,建设用地供给紧缩,用地规模增长缓慢,总规模偏小,不利于城镇化的良性发展;中等集约度模式则在用地规模和供给量上均与社会经济发展相适应,能体现现代城市发展理念;③ 工业用地占建设用地比例保持在15%~21%之间,其中低集约度模式下比例逐年上升,中等和高集约度模式下呈缓慢下降并趋于稳定之势;居住用地占建设用地的比例维持在27%~35%之间,其中低集约度和中等集约度模式用地占比呈下降趋势,高集约度模式比例总体维持在较高水平。研究通过对三种发展模式的设定,确定了不同指标在三种模式下的变化趋势,可为土地供需决策优化、城市建设规划及土地供给侧结构性改革提供科学参考。  相似文献   

The CAMS Climate System Model and a Basic Evaluation of Its Climatology and Climate Variability Simulation     

Xinyao Rong  Jian Li  Haoming Chen  Yufei Xin  Jingzhi Su  Lijuan Hua  Tianjun Zhou  Yanjun Qi  Zhengqiu Zhang  Guo Zhang  Jianduo Li 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2018,32(6):839-861

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纪念侯德封先生百年诞辰     

杨敬之 《第四纪研究》2000,20(1):16-17

回忆侯德封先生在野外工作时认真负责的工作态度和工作作风。他的求实精神和活跃的学术思想是我学习的榜样  相似文献   

Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks of a New Coupled Model CAMS-CSM to Idealized CO_2 Forcing: A Comparison with CMIP5 Models     

Xiaolong CHEN  Zhun GUO  Tianjun ZHOU  Jian LI  Xinyao RONG  Yufei XIN  Haoming CHEN  Jingzhi SU 《Journal of Meteorological Research》2019,(1)

Climate sensitivity and feedbacks are basic and important metrics to a climate system. They determine how large surface air temperature will increase under CO_2 forcing ultimately, which is essential for carbon reduction policies to achieve a specific warming target. In this study, these metrics are analyzed in a climate system model newly developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM) and compared with multi-model results from the Coupled Model Comparison Project phase 5(CMIP5). Based on two idealized CO_2 forcing scenarios, i.e.,abruptly quadrupled CO_2 and CO_2 increasing 1% per year, the equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS) and transient climate response(TCR) in CAMS-CSM are estimated to be about 2.27 and 1.88 K, respectively. The ECS is near the lower bound of CMIP5 models whereas the TCR is closer to the multi-model ensemble mean(MME) of CMIP5 due to compensation of a relatively low ocean heat uptake(OHU) efficiency. The low ECS is caused by an unusually negative climate feedback in CAMS-CSM, which is attributed to cloud shortwave feedback(λSWCL) over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean.The CMIP5 ensemble shows that more negative λSWCL is related to larger increase in low-level(925–700 hPa)cloud over the tropical Indo-Pacific under warming, which can explain about 90% of λSWCL in CAMS-CSM. Static stability of planetary boundary layer in the pre-industrial simulation is a critical factor controlling the low-cloud response and λSWCL across the CMIP5 models and CAMS-CSM. Evidently, weak stability in CAMS-CSM favors lowcloud formation under warming due to increased low-level convergence and relative humidity, with the help of enhanced evaporation from the warming tropical Pacific. Consequently, cloud liquid water increases, amplifying cloud albedo, and eventually contributing to the unusually negative λSWCL and low ECS in CAMS-CSM. Moreover, the OHU may influence climate feedbacks and then the ECS by modulating regional sea surface temperature responses.  相似文献   

汶川地震农居震害特征及其成因分析与恢复重建建议   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

温瑞智  魏景芝  赵纪生  吴景发  师黎静 《震灾防御技术》2008,3(4):391-397

本文总结了汶川地震中农居倒塌、严重破坏与中等破坏的特点,并分析了破坏程度与地震动、地震地表破裂、滑坡、滚石和房屋质量等因素的关系。为了减轻未来地震造成的震害,城镇选址应避开危险地段和抗震不利地段,且农居设计与施工应严格遵循抗震设计规范中的相关条款。同时,本文也强调了当地政府在灾区重建中的重要作用。  相似文献   

降水时间随机性对月总降水量的影响          下载免费PDF全文

苏京志 《大气科学学报》2019,42(1):109-116

降水量在时间分布上呈现较大的随机性,极端降水事件尤为如此。受此影响,月初(月末) 1～5 d之内的累积降水量很可能会超过当月总降水量的50%乃至更多。对1961—2017年中国2 400多站点资料统计分析结果发现,月初(月末) 1～5 d累积降水量对当月总降水量显著影响事件的出现频次,在季节和空间分布上都有鲜明特征。主要包括:1)月初累积降水量对秋冬季中各月的总降水量影响更大,月末累积降水量对1—4月的月总降水量影响较大。2)受月初累积降水量的影响,显著站点数在某些年份的某些月份出现极大值;受单次事件显著影响的站点数占全国总站点数的30%～50%,此即对应着一次全国大范围的极端降水事件。3)受月初(月末)累积降水量显著影响的站点空间分布随季节变化呈现出明显空间集聚特征。  相似文献   

An Assessment of CAMS-CSM in Simulating Land–Atmosphere Heat and Water Exchanges     

Guo Zhang  Jianduo Li  Xinyao Rong  Yufei Xin  Jian Li  Haoming Chen  Jingzhi Su  Lijuan Hua 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2018,32(6):862-880

The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) has been devoted to developing a climate system model (CSM) to meet demand for climate simulation and prediction for the East Asian region. In this study, we evaluated the performance of CAMS-CSM in regard to sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE), surface temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth, focusing on the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project experiment, with the aim of participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. We systematically assessed the simulation results achieved by CAMS-CSM for these variables against various reference products and ground observations, including the FLUXNET model tree ensembles H and LE data, Climate Prediction Center soil moisture data, snow depth climatology data, and Chinese ground observations of snow depth and winter surface temperature. We compared these results with data from the ECMWF Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Our results indicated that CAMS-CSM simulations were better than or comparable to ERAInterim reanalysis for snow depth and winter surface temperature at regional scales, but slightly worse when simulating total column soil moisture. The root-mean-square differences of H in CAMS-CSM were all greater than those from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, but less than or comparable to those from GLDAS. The spatial correlations for H in CAMS-CSM were the lowest in nearly all regions, except for North America. CAMS-CSM LE produced the lowest bias in Siberia, North America, and South America, but with the lowest spatial correlation coefficients. Therefore, there are still scopes for improving H and LE simulations in CAMS-CSM, particularly for LE.  相似文献   

汶川8.0级地震滑坡、崩塌机制   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

赵纪生  魏景芝  吴景发  周正华 《震灾防御技术》2008,3(4):379-383

本文总结了汶川8．0级地震引起的滑坡、崩塌的破坏特征,分析了地震地质灾害的外因和内因。鉴于本次地震导致的大量人员伤亡和巨大的财产损失,在进行城镇灾后重建工作或类似山区城镇规划时,强烈建议进行地震地质灾害评估工作。  相似文献   

辽宁省生态足迹地理分布及其可持续发展分析   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8  

王青  顾晓薇  刘建兴  Li Guangjun  DING Yi  Liu Jingzhi 《地理学报(英文版)》2004,14(3):303-312

This paper presents the detailed results and analyses on the ecological footprints and bio-capacities of the individual cities and the province as a whole for the year 2001, providing a clear picture of sustainability for the province. Results show that the ecological footprints of most cities in Liaoning exceeded their respective bio-capacities, incurring high ecological deficits. The ecological deficit of the province as a whole was 1.31 ha/cap. Those cities with resources extraction and/or primary material-making as their major industries constitute the “ecologically black band“, whose ecological deficits ranged from 2.45 to 5.23 ha/cap, the highest of all cities in the province. Fossil energy consumption was the major source of footprint amounting to 1.63 ha/cap at the provincial level,taking up 67.3% of the total. For cropland, modest ecological surpluses occurred in Jinzhou, Tiding,Huludao, and Panjin while modest ecological deficits in Dalian, Benxi, Fushun, and Dandong, resulting in an overall surplus for the province. Liaoning had a certain level of surplus in fishing ground (water area), mainly distributed in the coastal cities of Dalian, Panjin, Huludao, Yingkou, Jinzhou, and Dandong. Most cities had a small ecological deficit in pasture and all had a small ecological surplus in forest. The eco-efficiency, expressed as GDP value per hectare of footprint, exhibits high variations among the cities, with the highest (Shenyang) more than 10 times the lowest (Fuxin). Cities with manufacture, high-tech, and better developed service industries had high eco-efficiency, while those with resources extraction, primary material-making, and less developed service industries had low eco-efficiency. Based on the components and geographical distribution of ecological footprint, strategic policy implications are outlined for Liaoning‘s development toward a sustainable future.  相似文献   

基于地理空间分析和AHP的线路通道滑坡风险性评价     

王景致  袁嘉彬  尹海兵  姜文东  周啸宇 《测绘与空间地理信息》2021,44(4):29-34

输电线路常需要跨越地质灾害易发区域,为了保证电力的正常、安全输送,对输电线路通道所经区域进行滑坡地质灾害的空间分布及潜在风险评价具有重要意义。本文结合GIS和AHP方法进行了某输电线通道滑坡灾害危险性评价,选取地形地貌、气候条件、水文条件、人为活动条件、植被条件、地质岩组条件等影响因子,建立评价指标体系,利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各因子权重,基于GIS地理空间分析评价了输电线路通道地质灾害危险性,划分了5类区域:极高危险区、高危险区、中危险区、低危险区、较低危险区。危险性评价结果可为输电线路电力设施通道滑坡灾害防治、安全设计和施工提供科学依据。  相似文献