Additive versus multiplicative models in ecologic regression     

W. Douglas Thompson  Daniel Wartenberg 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):635-646

Much research in environmental epidemiology relies on aggregate-level information on exposure to potentially toxic substances and on relevant covariates. We compare the use of additive (linear) and multiplicative (log-linear) regression models for the analysis of such data. We illustrate how both additive and multiplicative models can be fit to aggregate-level data sets in which disease incidence is the dependent variable, and contrast these results with similar models fitted to individual-level data. We find (1) that for aggregate-level data, multiplicative models are more likely than additive models to introduce bias into the estimation of rates, an effect not found with individual-level data; and (2) that under many circumstances multiplicative models reduce the precision of the estimates, an effect also not found in individual-level models. For both additive and multiplicative models of aggregate-level data, we find that, in the presence of covariates, narrow confidence interval are obtained only when two or more antecedent factors are strongly related to the measured covariate and/or the exposure of primary substantive interest. We conclude that the equivalency of fitting additive versus multiplicative models in studies with individual-level binary data does not carry over to studies that analyze aggregate-level information. For aggregate data, we strongly recommend use of additive models. Supported by Grant #1 U19 EH000102 from the National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.  相似文献   

Inferred ground motions on Guadeloupe during the 2004 Les Saintes earthquake     

John Douglas 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2007,5(3):363-376

Accurate estimates of the ground motions that occurred during damaging earthquakes are a vital part of many aspects of earthquake engineering, such as the study of the size and cause of the uncertainties within earthquake risk assessments. This article compares a number of methods to estimate the ground shaking that occurred on Guadeloupe (French Antilles) during the 21st November 2004 (M _w 6.3) Les Saintes earthquake, with the aim of providing more accurate shaking estimates for the investigation of the sources of uncertainties within loss evaluations, based on damage data from this event. The various techniques make differing use of the available ground-motion recordings of this earthquake and by consequence the estimates obtained by the different approaches are associated with differing uncertainties. Ground motions on the French Antilles are affected by strong local site effects, which have been extensively investigated in previous studies. In this article, use is made of these studies in order to improve the shaking estimates. It is shown that the simple methods neglecting the spatial correlation of earthquake shaking lead to uncertainties similar to those predicted by empirical ground-motion models and that these are uniform across the whole of Guadeloupe. In contrast, methods (such as the ShakeMap approach) that take account of the spatial correlation in motions demonstrate that shaking within roughly 10 km of a recording station (covering a significant portion of the investigated area) can be defined with reasonable accuracy but that motions at more distant points are not well constrained.  相似文献   

Global-Scale Relationships between Climate and the Dengue Fever Vector, Aedes Aegypti     

Marianne J. Hopp  Jonathan A. Foley 《Climatic change》2001,48(2-3):441-463

Considerable interest exists inthe potential role climate may play in human healthissues, especially regarding the effect of climatechange on vector-borne disease. The Aedesaegypti mosquito, the principal vector for dengue,considered the most important vector-borne viraldisease in the world, is particularly susceptible toclimate variability and climatic change. Here wepresent a modeling analysis focusing on global-scaleassociations between climate and the development,potential distribution, and population dynamics ofAe. aegypti. We evaluate the model by comparingand contrasting model data with observed mosquitodensities. There is good agreement between theobserved and modeled global distribution of themosquito; however, the model results suggest thepotential for increased latitudinal distributionsduring warmer months. Seasonal fluctuations inmosquito abundance also compare well to observed data. Discrepancies possibly reflect the relatively lowresolution of the climate data and model output andthe inability of the model to account for localmicroclimate effects, especially in coastal areas.Future modeling efforts will involve study ofinterannual variability in mosquito dynamics.  相似文献   

Microhydrodynamics of flotation processes in the sea surface layer     

Marianne Grammatika  William B. Zimmerman   《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2001,34(2-4)

The uppermost surface of the ocean forms a peculiarly important ecosystem, the sea surface microlayer (SML). Comprising the top 1–1000 μm of the ocean surface, the SML concentrates many chemical substances, particularly those that are surface active. Important economically as a nursery for fish eggs and larvae, the SML unfortunately is also especially vulnerable to pollution. Contaminants that settle out from the air, have low solubility, or attach to floatable matter tend to accumulate in the SML.Bubbles contribute prominently to the dynamics of air–sea exchanges, playing an important role in geochemical cycling of material in the upper ocean and SML. In addition to the movement of bubbles, the development of a bubble cloud interrelates with the single particle dynamics of all other bubbles and particles. In the early sixties, several in situ oceanographic techniques revealed an “unbelievably immense” number of coastal bubbles of radius 15–300 μm. The spatial and temporal variation of bubble numbers were studied; acoustical oceanographers now use bubbles as tracers to determine ocean processes near the ocean surface. Sea state and rain noises have both been definitively ascribed to the radiation from huge numbers of infant micro bubbles [The Acoustic Bubble. Academic Press, San Diego].Our research programme aims at constructing a hydrodynamic model for particle transport processes occurring at the microscale, in multi-phase flotation suspensions. Current research addresses bubble and floc microhydrodynamics as building blocks for a microscale transport model. This paper reviews sea surface transport processes in the microlayer and the lower atmosphere, and identifies those amenable to microhydrodynamic modelling and simulation. It presents preliminary simulation results including the multi-body hydrodynamic mobility functions for the modelling of “dynamic bubble filters” and floc suspensions. Hydrodynamic interactions versus spatial anisotropy and size of particle clouds are investigated.  相似文献   

The level of deterrence provided by data from the SPITS seismometer array to possible violations of the Comprehensive Test Ban in the Novaya Zemlya region   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David Bowers  Peter D. Marshall  Alan Douglas 《Geophysical Journal International》2001,146(2):425-438

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Hydrogeologic studies for nuclear-waste disposal in Sweden     

Douglas D. Walker  Björn Gylling  Anders Ström  Jan-Olof Selroos 《Hydrogeology Journal》2001,9(5):419-431

Safety Report 1997 (SR 97) of the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company is a comprehensive performance assessment of three hypothetical radioactive waste repositories in Sweden. It includes hydrogeologic studies (data compilation, parameter synthesis, and groundwater flow modeling) to determine groundwater flow and the associated uncertainties for the three sites. This report reviews and compares the hydrogeologic characterization programs, the site characteristics, and the groundwater flow models used in the SR 97 performance assessment. Although differences in site-characterization programs tend to mask differences in site characteristics, the sites do have notable differences that affect the results of the performance assessment. The effects of model uncertainties evaluated by the variant cases appear to be smaller than the variability of results for the base case (best estimate of site conditions) of each site. Electronic Publication  相似文献   

Analysis of the Effect of Borehole Size on Explosive Energy Loss in Rock Blasting     

Changshou Sun  Douglas W. Later  Gang Chen 《Fragblast: International Journal for Blasting and Fragmentation》2001,5(4):235-246

In this paper, studies were conducted on the effect of borehole size on explosive energy loss in rock blasting. Since most industrial explosives are nonideal ones, the charge size and the confinement condition have significant impact on the detonation performance of these explosives. Analyses indicated that smaller boreholes will cause more loss of explosive energy than larger ones. This is especially true for most industrial explosives. The paper presents the analyses of energy loss for a number of different explosives with various borehole sizes. Based on these analyses recommendations and guidelines were given for borehole size determination in rock blasting operations.  相似文献   

A determination of source properties of large intraplate earthquakes in Alaska     

Hilary J. Fletcher  Douglas H. Christensen 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1996,146(1):21-41

Historically, large and potentially hazardous earthquakes have occurred within the interior of Alaska. However, most have not been adequately studied using modern methods of waveform modeling. The 22 July 1937, 16 October 1947, and 7 April 1958 earthquakes are three of the largest events known to have occurred within central Alaska (M _s =7.3,M _s =7.2 andM _s =7.3, respectively). We analyzed teleseismic body waves to gain information about the focal parameters of these events. In order to deconvolve the source time functions from teleseismic records, we first attempted to improve upon the published focal mechanisms for each event. Synthetic seismograms were computed for different source parameters, using the reflectivity method. A search was completed which compared the hand-digitized data with a suite of synthetic traces covering the complete parameter space of strike, dip, and slip direction. In this way, the focal mechanism showing the maximum correlation between the observed and calculated traces was found. Source time functions, i.e., the moment release as a function of time, were then deconvolved from teleseismic records for the three historical earthquakes, using the focal mechanisms which best fit the data. From these deconvolutions, we also recovered the depth of the events and their seismic moments. The earthquakes were all found to have a shallow foci, with depths of less than 10 km.The 1937 earthquake occurred within a northeast-southwest band of seismicity termed the Salcha seismic zone (SSZ). We confirm the previously published focal mechanism, indicating strike-slip faulting, with one focal plane parallel to the SSZ which was interpreted as the fault plane. Assuming a unilateral fault model and a reasonable rupture velocity of between 2 and 3 km/s, the 21 second rupture duration for this event indicates that all of the 65 km long SSZ may have ruptured during this event. The 1947 event, located to the south of the northwest-southeast trending Fairbanks seismic zone, was found to have a duration of about 11 seconds, thus indicating a rupture length of up to 30 km. The rupture duration of the 1958 earthquake, which occurred near the town of Huslia, approximately 400 km ENE of Fairbanks, was found to be about 9 seconds. This gives a rupture length consistent with the observed damage, an area of 16 km by 64 km.  相似文献   

Interactions of growing folds and coeval depositional systems   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Douglas Burbank  rew Meigs  & Nicholas Brozovi&#; 《Basin Research》1996,8(3):199-223

Responses of both modern and ancient fluvial depositional systems to growing folds can be interpreted in terms of interactions among competing controlling variables which can be incorporated into simple conceptual models. The ratio of the rate of sediment accumulation to the rate of structural uplift determines whether a fold develops a topographic expression above local base level. The balance between (a) stream power and rates of upstream deposition vs. (b) bedrock resistance and rates of crestal uplift and of fold widening determines whether an antecedent stream maintains its course or is defeated by a growing structure. Modern drainage configurations in actively folding landscapes can often be interpreted in terms of these competing variables, and through analysis of digital topography, detailed topographic characteristics of these folds can be quantified. Modern examples of growing folds display both defeated and persistent antecedent rivers, deflected drainages and laterally propagating structures. The topography associated with a defeated antecedent river at Wheeler Ridge, California, is consistent with a model in which defeat results from forced aggradation in the piggyback basin, without the need to vary discharge or uplift rate. Reconstruction of the long-term interplay between a depositional system and evolving folds requires a stratigraphic perspective, such as that provided by syntectonic strata which are directly juxtaposed with ancient folds and faults. Analysis of Palaeogene growth strata bounding the Catalan Coastal Ranges of NE Spain demonstrates the synchronous growth and the kinematic history of multiple folds and faults in the proximal foreland basin. Although dominated by transverse rivers which crossed fold crests, palaeovalleys, interfan lows, structural re-entrants and saddles, and rising anticlines diverted flow and influenced local deposition. In the ancient record, drainage-network events, such as avulsion or defeat of a transverse stream, usually cannot be unambiguously attributed to a single cause. Examination of ancient syntectonic strata from a geomorphological perspective, however, permits successive reconstructions of synorogenic topography, landscapes and depositional systems.  相似文献   

Microphytobenthos: The ecological role of the “secret garden” of unvegetated,shallow-water marine habitats. II. role in sediment stability and shallow-water food webs     

Douglas C. Miller  Richard J. Geider  Hugh L. MacIntyre 《Estuaries and Coasts》1996,19(2):202-212

The microphytobenthos form an important component of all shallow-water ecosystems where enough light reaches the sediment surface to support appreciable primary production. Although less conspicuous than macroalgae or vascular plants, the microphytobenthos can contribute significantly to primary production and can modify habitat characteristics. The microphytobenthos alter sediment properties (e.g., erodibility) both directly, in the extreme forming a mat or scum on the sediment surface, and indirectly by modifying the activities of benthic infauna (e.g., pelletization, burrowing, tube building, and sediment tracking). Carbon dioxide fixed by the microphytobenthos supports higher, grazing trophic levels. These include deposit-feeding and suspension-feeding macrofauna as well as meiofauna and microfauna. Quantitative relations between the feeding and growth rates of macrofauna and the abundance of microphytobenthos and suspended organic matter (i.e., functional responses) are reviewed. Given the current state of knowledge of the direct and indirect interactions involving trophic dynamics, sediment properties, and benthic microalgae, we argue for reductionist studies of particular interactions as distinct entities. This is a prerequisite for the emergence of a comprehensive picture of unvegetated ecosystems and the ability to predict their responses to man’s activities. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY074 00005  相似文献