Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?     

Martina?S?tteleEmail author  Michael?Krautblatter  Michael?Bründl  Daniel?Straub 《Landslides》2016,13(4):737-750

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.  相似文献   

A bridge over troubled water: A contextual analysis of social vulnerability to climate change in a riverine landscape in south-east Norway     

Vegard Gundersen  Bjørn Petter Kaltenborn  Daniel R. Williams 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2016,70(4):216-229

Local communities in the Gudbrandsdalen region in Norway are increasingly exposed to climate-induced hazards such as floods and landslides. A core question is how community members respond to climate change and what factors contribute to more resilient communities. The authors used a contextual approach to analyze data from semi-structured interviews along five dimensions. In Gaustad Muncipality they found that individuals’ motivation to adapt to climate change depended largely on subjective values such as identity, place attachment, cultural values, and social networks among individuals, which means it is crucial that strategic plans for adaptation to climate change at different policy levels are experienced as relevant by community members. While the studied community has experienced heavy floods in river systems and streams, little evidence of adaptation was observed. Instead, they appeared to adopt coping strategies. Landowners may have limited incentives to adapt to climate change due to contraproductive policy measures such as economic compensation for direct losses without requiring improved practices. Effective adaptation to climate change on the local level is likely to require making compensation mechanisms contingent upon landowners showing willingness to change from coping to adaptive practices, as well as a contextualized approach integrating local and scientific forms of knowledge.  相似文献   

Market-driven organizational lock-in: A case study of a former first mover     

Rune Njøs  Stig-Erik Jakobsen  Vegar Rosnes 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2016,70(3):140-151

ABSTRACT

The article addresses the question of how an innovative firm develops from being a first mover to an innovation laggard and whether this process can be reversed. Informed by the evolutionary perspective and path-dependence theory, the authors explore how a low-tech Norwegian firm in the oil and gas industry has lost its foothold as an innovator. They also employ the concept of organizational architecture as an analytical tool to investigate the agency for breaking organizational paths. Through participant observation and semi-structured interviews, their study revealed that the innovation activity of the case firm is in a state of lock-in following a path-dependence development. Product development in the firm is linked to incremental changes to existing products based on the feedback from the customer, and the process is characterized by knowledge exploitation rather than knowledge exploration. The article adds to the literature on path dependence by identifying how a strong market pull can be a driver for organizational path dependence and lock-in.  相似文献   

Geochronology,stratigraphy and geochemistry of Cambro-Ordovician,Silurian and Devonian volcanic rocks of the Saxothuringian Zone in NE Bavaria (Germany)—new constraints for Gondwana break up and ocean–island magmatism     

Höhn  Stefan  Koglin  Nikola  Klopf  Lisa  Schüssler  Ulrich  Tragelehn  Harald  Frimmel  Hartwig E.  Zeh  Armin  Brätz  Helene 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2018,107(1):359-377

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Stratigraphically well-defined volcanic rocks in Palaeozoic volcano-sedimentary units of the Frankenwald area (Saxothuringian Zone, Variscan Orogen) were...  相似文献   

Causes and consequences of long-term groundwater overabstraction in Jordan     

Brückner  Florian  Bahls  Rebecca  Alqadi  Mohammad  Lindenmaier  Falk  Hamdan  Ibraheem  Alhiyari  Mohammad  Atieh  Ala’a 《Hydrogeology Journal》2021,29(8):2789-2802

Hydrogeology Journal - In 2017, a comprehensive review of groundwater resources in Jordan was carried out for the first time since 1995. The change in groundwater levels between 1995 and 2017 was...  相似文献   

Combined three-dimensional electric and seismic tomography study on the Åknes rockslide in western Norway     

Björn Heincke  Thomas Günther  Einar Dalsegg  Jan Steinar Rønning  Guri Venvik Ganerød  Harald Elvebakk 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2010,70(4):292-306

We present a combined 3-D geoelectric and seismic tomography study conducted on the large Åknes rockslide in western Norway. Movements on the slope are strongly influenced by water infiltration, such that the hydrogeological regime is considered as a critical factor affecting the slope stability. The aim of our combined geophysical study was to identify and visualize the main shallow tension fractures and to determine their effect on hydraulic processes by comparing the geophysical results with information from borehole logging and tracer tests. To resolve the complex subsurface conditions of the highly fractured rock mass, a three-dimensional set-up was chosen for our seismic survey. To map the water distribution within the rock mass, a pattern of nine intersecting 2-D geoelectric profiles covered the complete unstable slope. Six of them that crossed the seismic survey area were considered as a single data set in a 3-D inversion. For both methods, smoothing-constraint inversion algorithms were used, and the forward calculations and parameterizations were based on unstructured triangular meshes. A pair of parallel shallow low-velocity anomalies (< 1400 m/s) observed in the final seismic tomogram was immediately underlain by two anomalies with resistivities <13 kΩm in the resistivity tomogram. In combination with borehole logging results, the low-velocity and resistivity anomalies could be associated with the drained and water-filled part of the tension fractures, respectively. There were indications from impeller flowmeter measurements and tracer tests that such tension fractures intersected several other water-filled fractures and were responsible for distinct changes of the main groundwater flow paths.  相似文献   

Linking past flood frequencies in Norway to regional atmospheric circulation anomalies     

Eivind N. Støren  Erik W. Kolstad  Øyvind Paasche 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(1):71-80

Analysis of two continuous, high‐resolution palaeo‐flood records from southern Norway reveals that the frequency of extreme flood events has changed significantly during the Holocene. During the early and middle Holocene, flood frequency was low; by contrast, it was high over the last 2300 years when the mean flood frequency was about 2.5–3.0 per century. The present regional discharge regime is dominated by spring/summer snowmelt, and our results indicate that the changing flood frequency cannot be explained by local conditions associated with the respective catchments of the two lakes, but rather long‐term variations of solid winter precipitation and related snowmelt. Applying available instrumental winter precipitation data and associated sea‐level pressure re‐analysis data as a modern analogue, we document that atmospheric circulation anomalies, significantly different from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have some potential in explaining the variability of the two different palaeo‐flood records. Centennial‐scale patterns in shifting flood frequency might be indicative of shifts in atmospheric circulation and shed light on palaeo‐pressure variations in the North Atlantic region, in areas not influenced by the NAO. Major shifts are found at about 2300, 1200 and 200 years ago (cal. a BP). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Trends,drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment     

Nathalie van Vliet  Ole Mertz  Andreas Heinimann  Tobias Langanke  Unai Pascual  Birgit Schmook  Cristina Adams  Dietrich Schmidt-Vogt  Peter Messerli  Stephen Leisz  Jean-Christophe Castella  Lars Jørgensen  Torben Birch-Thomsen  Cornelia Hett  Thilde Bech-Bruun  Amy Ickowitz  Kim Chi Vu  Kono Yasuyuki  Jefferson Fox  Christine Padoch  Alan D. Ziegler 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(2):418-429

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10–15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems.  相似文献   

The magnetic structure of the langbeinite K2Mn2 (SO4)3     

H. Oelkrug  T. Brückel  D. Hohlwein  A. Hoser  W. Prandl 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1988,16(3):246-249

K₂Mn₂(SO₄)₃ orders magnetically at T_N= 1.75 K. One of the orthorhombic cell edges of the low temperature Langbeinite structure becomes doubled in the magnetically ordered state. The antiferromagnetic spin structure found is characterized by weak or vanishing molecular fields due to nearest neighbours. There are no indications of magnetic order down to 1.45 K in the isomorphic compound K₂Co₂ (SO₄)₃.  相似文献   

A dynamic deterministic model of hydrocarbon generation in the Midgard Field drainage area offshore Mid-Norway     

E. S. Mo  T. Throndsen  P. Andresen  S. A. Bäckström  A. Forsberg  S. Haug  B. Tørudbakken 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1989,78(1):305-317

The Midgard Field offshore mid-Norway is a gas-condensate accumulation with a thin oil leg reservoired in Early and Middle Jurassic sandstones. There are two potential source rocks in the area; the Late Jurassic Spekk Formation is a marine shale with type II kerogen and a rich potential for oil, and the Åre Formation of Early Jurassic age which is a thick coal-bearing sequence with type III kerogen and potential mainly for gas. Geochemical analyses indicate that both the condensate and the oil leg are sourced mainly from the coal-bearing Åre Formation. Any contribution from the Spekk Formation appears to be of minor importance. Computer simulation of hydrocarbon generation in the drainage area for the Midgard Field indicates that huge volumes are formed, and confirms that hydrocarbon generation from the Åre Formation is volumetrically far more important than from the Spekk Formation. The simulation results also exclude any contribution to the reservoired gas from the Spekk Formation.

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Zusammenfassung Das Midgard Feld vor der Küste Mittelnorwegens ist eine Gas-Kondensat-Akkumulation mit einem nur geringen Ölanteil innerhalb unter- und mitteljurassischer Sandsteine. In diesem Gebiet gibt es zwei mögliche Muttergesteine: Einmal die oberjurassische Spekk-Formation, bei der es sich um einen marinen Schiefer mit Typ II Kerogen handelt und die ein hohes Ölpotential darstellt. Zum anderen gibt es die unterjurassische Åre-Formation, eine mächtige Kohle-führende Folge mit Typ III Kerogen und ein möglicher Gaslieferant. Geochemische Analysen deuten darauf hin, daß sowohl das Gas-Kondensat als auch das Öl des Midgard Feldes auf diese Kohle-führende Åre-Formation zurückzuführen sind. Jede Zufuhr aus der Spekk-Formation scheint von geringer Bedeutung zu sein. Eine durch Computersimulation rekonstruierte Kohlenwasserstofferzeugung im Einzugsgebiet des Midgard Feldes spricht für eine hohe Bildungsrate und bestätigt die Annahme, daß die Kohlenwasserstoff-produktion der Spekk-Formation gegenüber der Åre-Formation zu vernachlässigen ist. Die Simulation ergab ferner, daß keinerlei Gas von der Spekk-Formation dem Reservoir zugeführt wurde.

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Résumé Le champ off-shore de Midgard (Norvège moyenne) est une accumulation de gaz condensé accompagnée d'un mince corps d'huile, accumulation renfermée dans des grès d'âge jurassique inférieur et moyen. Il existe dans le secteur deux sources possibles: la formation de Spekk (shale marins du Jurassique tardif, à kérogène de type II, possédant un riche potentiel en huile) et la formation d'Åre (série épaisse jurassique inférieure, à couches de charbon, à kérogène de type III et potentiel essentiellement en gaz). Les analyses géochimiques montrent que le gaz condensé et l'huile ont tous deux comme origine la formation charbonneuse de Åre. La formation de Spekk ne semble être intervenue que de manière subordonnée. Une simulation par ordinateur de la genèse de l'hydrocarbure dans l'aire d'alimentation du champ de Midgard fait apparaître que des volumes importants ont été formés et confirme la large prépondérance de la formation de Åre parmi les roches-mères. De plus, cette simulation exclut toute expèce de contribution de la formation de Spekk dans la genèse du gaz.

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