Uncertainty in resilience to climate change in India and Indian states     

Elizabeth L. Malone  Antoinette L. Brenkert 《Climatic change》2008,91(3-4):451-476

This study builds on an earlier analysis of resilience of India and Indian states to climate change. The previous study (Brenkert and Malone, Clim Change 72:57–102, 2005) assessed current resilience; this research uses the Vulnerability–Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) to project resilience to 2095 and to perform an uncertainty analysis on the deterministic results. Projections utilized two SRES-based scenarios, one with fast-and-high growth, one with delayed growth. A detailed comparison of two states, the Punjab and Orissa, points to the kinds of insights that can be obtained using the VRIM. The scenarios differ most significantly in the timing of the uncertainty in economic prosperity (represented by GDP per capita) as a major factor in explaining the uncertainty in the resilience index. In the fast-and-high growth scenario the states differ most markedly regarding the role of ecosystem sensitivity, land use and water availability. The uncertainty analysis shows, for example, that resilience in the Punjab might be enhanced, especially in the delayed growth scenario, if early attention is paid to the impact of ecosystems sensitivity on environmental well-being of the state. By the same token, later in the century land-use pressures might be avoided if land is managed through intensification rather than extensification of agricultural land. Thus, this methodology illustrates how a policy maker can be informed about where to focus attention on specific issues, by understanding the potential changes at a specific location and time—and, thus, what might yield desired outcomes. Model results can point to further analyses of the potential for resilience-building.  相似文献   

Measuring income and projecting energy use     

Hugh M. Pitcher 《Climatic change》2009,97(1-2):49-58

Energy is a key requirement for a healthy, productive life and a major driver of the emissions leading to an increasingly warm planet. The implications of a doubling and redoubling of per capita incomes over the remainder of this century for energy use are a critical input into understanding the magnitude of the carbon management problem. A substantial controversy about how the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) measured income and the potential implications of how income was measured for long term levels of energy use is revisited again in the McKibbin, Pearce and Stegman article appearing elsewhere in this issue. The recent release of a new set of purchasing power estimates of national income, and the preparations for creating new scenarios to support the IPCC’s fifth assessment highlight the importance of the issues which have arisen surrounding income and energy use. Comparing the 1993 and 2005 ICP results on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) based measures of income reveals that not only do the 2005 ICP estimates share the same issue of common growth rates for real income as measured by PPP and US $, but the lack of coherence in the estimates of PPP incomes, especially for developing countries raises yet another obstacle to resolving the best way to measure income. Further, the common use of an income term to mediate energy demand (as in the Kaya identity) obscures an underlying reality about per capita energy demands, leading to unreasonable estimates of the impact of changing income measures and of the recent high GDP growth rates in India and China. Significant new research is required to create both a reasonable set of GDP growth rates and long term levels of energy use.  相似文献   

N-body simulations of cohesion in dense planetary rings: A study of cohesion parameters     

Randall P. Perrine  Derek C. Richardson 《Icarus》2012,219(2):515-533

We present results from a large suite of simulations of Saturn’s dense A and B rings using a new model of particle sticking in local simulations (Perrine, R.P., Richardson, D.C., Scheeres, D.J. [2011]. Icarus 212, 719–735). In this model, colliding particles can be incorporated into or help fragment rigid aggregations on the basis of certain user-specified parameters that can represent van der Waals forces or interlocking surface frost layers.Our investigation is motivated by laboratory results that show that interpenetration of surface layers can allow impacting frost-covered ice spheres to stick together. In these experiments, cohesion only occurs below specific impact speeds, which happen to be characteristic of impact speeds in Saturn’s rings. Our goal is to determine if weak bonding is consistent with ring observations, to constrain cohesion parameters in light of existing ring observations, to make predictions about particle populations throughout the rings, and to discover other diagnostics that may constrain bonding parameters.We considered the effects of five parameters on the equilibrium characteristics of our ring simulations: speed-based merge and fragmentation limits, bond strength, ring surface density, and patch orbital distance (i.e., the A or B ring), some with both monodisperse and polydisperse comparison cases. In total, we present data from 95 simulations.We find that weak cohesion is consistent with observations of the A and B rings (e.g., French, R.G., Nicholson, P.D. [2000]. Icarus 145, 502–523), and we present a range of simulation parameters that reproduce the observed size distribution and maximum particle size. It turns out that the parameters that match observations differ between the A and B rings, and we discuss the potential implications of this result. We also comment on other observable consequences of cohesion for the rings, such as optical depth and scale height effects, and discuss whether very large objects (e.g., “propeller” source objects) are grown bottom-up from cohesion of smaller ring particles.  相似文献   

The distribution of velocity and energy of saltating sand grains in a wind tunnel     

《Geomorphology》2001,36(3-4):155-165

Sand transport by wind is a special case of two-phase flow of gas and solids, with saltating grains accounting for about 75% of the transport rate. This form of flow is not only the main external agent moulding aeolian landforms but also the motive force responsible for transport, sorting and deposition of aeolian sediments. High-speed multiflash photography is an effective method of studying the distribution of velocity and energy of saltating grains within the boundary layer of wind tunnel. The experimental wind shear velocities were set at 0.63, 0.64, 0.74 and 0.81 ms⁻¹. The statistical study of the results showed that there is a power function relation between mean velocity and height of saltating grains. As the height is divided into 0.5-cm intervals, the sand grain velocities at various levels are consistent with the Pearson VII distribution pattern. The variations in kinetic energy and total energy of sand grains with height accord with the pulse peak modified with power term (Pulsepow) law; the maximum values occur at heights of 6 cm or so and tend to shift upward with increasing wind velocity.  相似文献   

Regional climate modelling in CLARIS-LPB: a concerted approach towards twentyfirst century projections of regional temperature and precipitation over South America     

E. Sánchez  S. Solman  A. R. C. Remedio  H. Berbery  P. Samuelsson  R. P. Da Rocha  C. Mourão  L. Li  J. Marengo  M. de Castro  D. Jacob 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(7-8):2193-2212

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IN-SITU observations of irregular ionospheric structure associated with the plasmapause     

Harry A. Taylor  Guy R. Cordier 《Planetary and Space Science》1974,22(9):1289-1296

Additional studies of the ion composition results obtained from the OGO-6 satellite support earlier observations of irregularities in the distribution of H⁺ and He⁺ within the light ion trough near L = 4, which has been associated with the plasmapause. These irregularities are in the form of sub-troughs superimposed upon the major mid latitude decrease of the light ions. In the sub-troughs, ionization depletions and recoveries of as much as an order of magnitude are observed within a few degrees of latitude, usually exhibited in a pattern which changes significantly with longitude as the Earth rotates beneath the relatively fixed satellite orbit. The location and properties exhibited by these sub-troughs appear to be consistent with the concept of a plasmasphere distortion in the form of “plasmatails” resulting from the combined effects of magnetospheric convection plus corotation. Like the light ion trough, the “plasmatail” irregularity in H⁺ may be obscured on the day side by the dominant topside distribution of O⁺. Consequently, these light ion irregularities are seen as an important factor for studies of plasmapause-trough relationships.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the real-time TRMM-based multi-satellite precipitation analysis for an operational flood prediction system in Nzoia Basin,Lake Victoria,Africa   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Li Li  Yang Hong  Jiahu Wang  Robert F. Adler  Frederick S. Policelli  Shahid Habib  Daniel Irwn  Tesfaye Korme  Lawrence Okello 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(1):109-123

Many researchers seek to take advantage of the recently available and virtually uninterrupted supply of satellite-based rainfall information as an alternative and supplement to the ground-based observations in order to implement a cost-effective flood prediction in many under-gauged regions around the world. Recently, NASA Applied Science Program has partnered with USAID and African-RCMRD to implement an operational water-hazard warning system, SERVIR-Africa. The ultimate goal of the project is to build up disaster management capacity in East Africa by providing local governmental officials and international aid organizations a practical decision-support tool in order to better assess emerging flood impacts and to quantify spatial extent of flood risk, as well as to respond to such flood emergencies more expediently. The objective of this article is to evaluate the applicability of integrating NASA’s standard satellite precipitation product with a flood prediction model for disaster management in Nzoia, sub-basin of Lake Victoria, Africa. This research first evaluated the TMPA real-time rainfall data against gauged rainfall data from the year 2002 through 2006. Then, the gridded Xinanjiang Model was calibrated to Nzoia basin for period of 1985–2006. Benchmark streamflow simulations were produced with the calibrated hydrological model using the rain gauge and observed streamflow data. Afterward, continuous discharge predictions forced by TMPA 3B42RT real-time data from 2002 through 2006 were simulated, and acceptable results were obtained in comparison with the benchmark performance according to the designated statistic indices such as bias ratio (20%) and NSCE (0.67). Moreover, it is identified that the flood prediction results were improved with systematically bias-corrected TMPA rainfall data with less bias (3.6%) and higher NSCE (0.71). Although the results justify to suggest to us that TMPA real-time data can be acceptably used to drive hydrological models for flood prediction purpose in Nzoia basin, continuous progress in space-borne rainfall estimation technology toward higher accuracy and higher spatial resolution is highly appreciated. Finally, it is also highly recommended that to increase flood forecasting lead time, more reliable and more accurate short- or medium-range quantitative precipitation forecasts is a must.  相似文献   

Bayesian approach to contaminant source characterization in water distribution systems: adaptive sampling framework   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Hui Wang  Kenneth W. Harrison 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(8):1921-1928

Bayesian analysis can yield a probabilistic contaminant source characterization conditioned on available sensor data and accounting for system stochastic processes. This paper is based on a previously proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach tailored for water distribution systems and incorporating stochastic water demands. The observations can include those from fixed sensors and, the focus of this paper, mobile sensors. Decision makers, such as utility managers, need not wait until new observations are available from an existing sparse network of fixed sensors. This paper addresses a key research question: where is the best location in the network to gather additional measurements so as to maximize the reduction in the source uncertainty? Although this has been done in groundwater management, it has not been well addressed in water distribution networks. In this study, an adaptive framework is proposed to guide the strategic placement of mobile sensors to complement the fixed sensor network. MCMC is the core component of the proposed adaptive framework, while several other pieces are indispensable: Bayesian preposterior analysis, value of information criterion and the search strategy for identifying an optimal location. Such a framework is demonstrated with an illustrative example, where four candidate sampling locations in the small water distribution network are investigated. Use of different value-of-information criteria reveals that while each may lead to different outcomes, they share some common characteristics. The results demonstrate the potential of Bayesian analysis and the MCMC method for contaminant event management.  相似文献   

BIBLIOGRAPHY—BIBLIOGRAPHIE     

Jiahu Wang  Li Li  Jonathan J. Gourley  Sadiq I. Khan  Koray K. Yilmaz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):84-98

Abstract

The Coupled Routing and Excess STorage model (CREST, jointly developed by the University of Oklahoma and NASA SERVIR) is a distributed hydrological model developed to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of land surface, and subsurface water fluxes and storages by cell-to-cell simulation. CREST's distinguishing characteristics include: (1) distributed rainfall–runoff generation and cell-to-cell routing; (2) coupled runoff generation and routing via three feedback mechanisms; and (3) representation of sub-grid cell variability of soil moisture storage capacity and sub-grid cell routing (via linear reservoirs). The coupling between the runoff generation and routing mechanisms allows detailed and realistic treatment of hydrological variables such as soil moisture. Furthermore, the representation of soil moisture variability and routing processes at the sub-grid scale enables the CREST model to be readily scalable to multi-scale modelling research. This paper presents the model development and demonstrates its applicability for a case study in the Nzoia basin located in Lake Victoria, Africa.

Citation Wang, J., Yang, H., Li, L., Gourley, J. J., Sadiq, I. K., Yilmaz, K. K., Adler, R. F., Policelli, F. S., Habib, S., Irwn, D., Limaye, A. S., Korme, T. &; Okello, L. (2011) The coupled routing and excess storage (CREST) distributed hydrological model. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(1), 84–98.  相似文献   

Night on Earth: Mapping decadal changes of anthropogenic night light in Asia     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2013

The defense meteorological satellite program (DMSP) operational linescan system (OLS) sensors have imaged emitted light from Earth's surface since the 1970s. Temporal overlap in the missions of 5 OLS sensors allows for intercalibration of the annual composites over the past 19 years (Elvidge et al., 2009). The resulting image time series captures a spatiotemporal signature of the growth and evolution of lighted human settlements and development. We use empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and the temporal feature space to characterize and quantify patterns of temporal change in stable night light brightness and spatial extent since 1992. Temporal EOF analysis provides a statistical basis for representing spatially abundant temporal patterns in the image time series as uncorrelated vectors of brightness as a function of time from 1992 to 2009. The variance partition of the eigenvalue spectrum combined with temporal structure of the EOFs and spatial structure of the PCs provides a basis for distinguishing between deterministic multi-year trends and stochastic year-to-year variance. The low order EOFs and principal components (PC) space together discriminate both earlier (1990s) and later (2000s) increases and decreases in brightness. Inverse transformation of these low order dimensions reduces stochastic variance sufficiently so that tri-temporal composites depict potentially deterministic decadal trends. The most pronounced changes occur in Asia. At critical brightness threshold we find an 18% increase in the number of spatially distinct lights and an 80% increase in lighted area in southern and eastern Asia between 1992 and 2009. During this time both China and India experienced a ∼20% increase in number of lights and a ∼270% increase in lighted area – although the timing of the increase is later in China than in India. Throughout Asia a variety of different patterns of brightness increase are apparent in tri-temporal brightness composites – as well as some conspicuous areas of apparently decreasing background luminance and, in many places, intermittent light suggesting development of infrastructure rather than persistently lighted development. Vicarious validation using higher resolution Landsat imagery verifies multiple phases of urban growth in several cities as well as the consistent presence of low DN (<∼15) background luminance for many agricultural areas. Lights also allow us to quantify changes in the size distribution and connectedness of different intensities of development. Over a wide range of brightnesses, the size distributions of spatially contiguous lighted area are consistent with power laws with exponents near −1 as predicted by Zipf's Law for cities. However, the larger lighted segments are much larger than individual cities; they correspond to vast spatial networks of contiguous development (Small et al., 2011).  相似文献