论地震数值预报——关于我国地震预报研究发展战略的思考   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

刘启元  吴建春 《地学前缘》2003,10(Z1):217-224

随着中国工业化和社会现代化进程的加快 ,中国城市化进程必将进一步加速。如何减轻地震灾害的问题正变得日益严峻。尽管地震预测是一个举世公认的国际性科学难题 ,但在强化各种减轻地震灾害措施的同时 ,仍须大力推进地震预测研究。为此 ,需要打破长期徘徊在以地震前兆异常监测为基础的经验性预测局面 ,把注意力尽快转向研究以动力学为基础的数值预报。以GPS为代表的空间对地观测技术 ,岩石圈巨型高分辨率宽频带流动地震台阵观测技术以及数值模拟技术已经为地震数值预报研究提供了前所未有的技术基础。以地震数值预报为目标的GPS阵列地壳形变连续观测 ,高分辨率地壳上地幔结构探测 ,地壳动力学 ,地震孕育和破裂过程的理论、模拟试验和实际观测 ,数据同化和计算软件的开发应成为今后研究的重点。现在的问题是 ,需要积极借助数值天气预报的经验 ,强化多学科 ,多部门的组织协调 ,尽早在有条件的地区开展地震动力学数值预报的科学试验。地震数值预报研究必将极大地促进中国地震科学基础研究和地震预报的进一步发展。  相似文献   

冲击旋转钻进技术新发展   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

菅志军张玉霖  王茂森戴树林 《地质与勘探》2003,39(3):78-83

冲击旋转钻进技术是一种高效的碎岩方法，近年来随着施工领域的拓宽取得了很大的进步。简要阐述了冲击旋转钻进技术的发展历程，着重介绍了一些冲击器新品种及其相关的钻进新工艺，分析了该项技术的发展趋势。  相似文献   

应用MORPAS系统证据权重法进行多源信息成矿预测——以澜沧江南段地区为例   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

刘星  胡光道 《地质与勘探》2003,39(4):65-68

在分析了成矿预测的特点并在对澜沧江南段铜多金属的成矿规律深入研究的基础上,利用MORPAS系统抽取构置了来自地质异常场、成矿异常场和矿化异常场等多源信息的16个预测变量;把研究区划分为2.5 km×2.5 km大小的1334个统计单元,利用证据权重法的数学模型对研究区铜多金属矿产进行预测;圈定了3级成矿远景区;研究表明证据权法用于成矿预测方法简单,结果可靠性较高;利用MORPAS系统进行成矿预测可以提高工作的效率和精确度.  相似文献   

天然气水合物体系动态演化研究（I）：地质历史演变     

宋海斌 《地球物理学进展》2003,18(2):188-196

1995年Dickens对55．5Ma前古新世末增温事件进行了研究，提出天然气水合物作为全球环境变化重要因子的假说．认为古新世末增温事件溶解无机碳-2～-3‰的^13δC位移可以用水合物所含甲烷的释放与随后氧化成二氧化碳来解释．此后，地质历史演变中的天然气水合物演化研究蓬勃发展，本文总结古新世末增温事件、新元古代末期雪球事件、第四纪千年尺度事件等最新进展，为天然气水合物动态演化研究提供基础．开展天然气水合物-天然气体系动态演化过程数值模拟与特征分析，可望促进天然气水合物在全球变化与碳循环中作用的深入认识．  相似文献   

Introduction of structural aseismic research in China in recent four years     

罗奇峰  石春香  曹炳政  杨树龙  熊华  李仕栋 《地震学报(英文版)》2003,16(6):656-675

Introduction Greeting the coming of the 21st century, Professor HU Yu-xian and other Chinese scholars briefed the trend of earthquake engineering in China and aboard (HU, 1999; HU, ZHOU, 1999). The experiences and lessons learning from the destructive earthquakes in China and abroad in re-cent years, the damage action of the large velocity impulse in ground motion in near field in seis-mic design, numerous earthquake examples show that there are many weaknesses in aspects of earthquake p…  相似文献   

Lithospheric structure and continental geodynamics     

许忠淮  石耀霖 《地震学报(英文版)》2003,16(5):544-560

This paper briefly reviews main progress in the research on lithospheric structure and continental geodynamics made by Chinese geophysicists during last 4 years since 22nd IUGG general assembly in July 1999. The research mainly covers the following fields: investigations on regional lithospheric structure, DSS survey of crust and upper mantle velocity structure, study on present-day inner movement and deformation of Chinese mainland by analyz-ing GPS observations, geodynamics of Qingzang plateau, geophysical survey of the Dabie-Sulu ultra-high pressure metamorphic belt and probing into its formation mechanism, geophysical observations in sedimentary basins and study on their evolution process, and plate dynamics, etc.  相似文献   

Distribution of L_g coda Q in the Chinese continent and its adjacent regions     

丛连理  胡家富  傅竹武  温一波  康国发  吴小平 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2003,46(6)

In continent Lg is usually one of the predominant phases recorded by short-period or broad-band seismometers. A ray-theoretical approach shows that Lg wave is the superposition of higher-mode surface waves propagating in the continental crust[1—4]. The g…  相似文献   

Design of efficient base isolation for hammers and presses     

Abdul Ghafar Chehab  M. Hesham El Naggar   《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2003,23(2):127-141

Foundations supporting hammers and presses have to withstand powerful short-period impact loads. When designing these foundations, their vibration amplitudes and the forces transmitted to the supporting piles or soil medium must be reduced to meet serviceability and stability requirements. Mounting systems are often used to achieve this goal. The objectives of this paper are to investigate the efficiency of mounting systems for different foundation configurations and to provide practical guidance for their design. A comprehensive parametric study was conducted and the results were used to establish a set of charts for the design of efficient mounting systems.  相似文献   

Petrography and uplift history of the Quaternary Takidani Granodiorite: could it have hosted a supercritical (HDR) geothermal reservoir?     

Masatoshi Bando  Greg Bignall  Kotaro Sekine  Noriyoshi Tsuchiya   《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2003,120(3-4):215-234

The Quaternary Takidani Granodiorite (Japan Alps) is analogous to the type of deep-seated (3–5 km deep) intrusive-hosted fracture network system that might support (supercritical) hot dry/wet rock (HDR/HWR) energy extraction. The I-type Takidani Granodiorite comprises: porphyritic granodiorite, porphyritic granite, biotite-hornblende granodiorite, hornblende-biotite granodiorite, biotite-hornblende granite and biotite granite facies; the intrusion has a reverse chemical zonation, characterized by >70 wt% SiO₂ at its inferred margin and <67 wt% SiO₂ at the core. Fluid inclusion evidence indicates that fractured Takidani Granodiorite at one time hosted a liquid-dominated, convective hydrothermal system, with <380°C, low-salinity reservoir fluids at hydrostatic (mesothermal) pressure conditions. ‘Healed’ microfractures also trapped >600°C, hypersaline (35 wt% NaCl_eq) fluids of magmatic origin, with inferred minimum pressures of formation being 600–750 bar, which corresponds to fluid entrapment at 2.4–3.0 km depth. Al-in-hornblende geobarometry indicates that hornblende crystallization occurred at about 1.45 Ma (7.7–9.4 km depth) in the (marginal) eastern Takidani Granodiorite, but later (at 1.25 Ma) and shallower (6.5–7.0 km) near the core of the intrusion. The average rate of uplift across the Takidani Granodiorite from the time of hornblende crystallization has been 5.1–5.9 mm/yr (although uplift was about 7.5 mm/yr prior to 1.2 Ma), which is faster than average uplift rates in the Japan Alps (3 mm/yr during the last 2 million years). A temperature–depth–time window, when the Takidani Granodiorite had potential to host an HDR system, would have been when the internal temperature of the intrusive was cooling from 500°C to 400°C. Taking into account the initial (7.5 mm/yr) rate of uplift and effects of erosion, an optimal temperature–time–depth window is proposed: for 500°C at 1.54–1.57 Ma and 5.2±0.9 km (drilling) depth; and 400°C at 1.36–1.38 Ma and 3.3±0.8 km (drilling) depth, which is within the capabilities of modern drilling technologies, and similar to measured temperature–depth profiles in other active hydrothermal systems (e.g. at Kakkonda, Japan).  相似文献   

On the field-aligned currents pattern formation in the magnetosphere     

P. Nenovski  D. Danov  A. Bochev   《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2003,65(16-18):1369-1383

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