中国大陆地区对外贸易差异的演变、成因与收敛路径   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

张红霞  王学真  陈才 《地理科学》2009,29(6):802-808

根据采用因子分析法进行的综合评价结果表明,中国大陆地区对外贸易水平呈现明显的非均衡发展态势。以变异系数度量的对外贸易总量差异表明,1985~2006年间,地带间外贸总量差异呈逐步增大的态势,地带内部外贸总量差异呈趋于收敛的态势。以制成品进出口占全国比重度量的对外贸易结构表明,四大地带中,东部始终占据全国主导地位且占比逐年上升。在地区对外贸易差异的形成过程中,对外开放政策、外商直接投资、人力资本、经济性基础设施、国内投资和地理区位等因素起到了决定性作用。以对数单位模型进行的实证检验表明,加大道路交通建设、提高中央与地方的分权水平、扩大投资规模、改善人力资本状况、提升通讯水平和加强省际外贸合作,是促进地区对外贸易向均衡方向发展的有效路径。  相似文献   

A stochastic approach to nonlinear unconfined flow subject to multiple random fields   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Liangsheng Shi  Jinzhong Yang  Dongxiao Zhang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(6):823-835

In this study, the KLME approach, a moment-equation approach based on the Karhunen–Loeve decomposition developed by Zhang and Lu (Comput Phys 194(2):773–794, 2004), is applied to unconfined flow with multiple random inputs. The log-transformed hydraulic conductivity F, the recharge R, the Dirichlet boundary condition H, and the Neumann boundary condition Q are assumed to be Gaussian random fields with known means and covariance functions. The F, R, H and Q are first decomposed into finite series in terms of Gaussian standard random variables by the Karhunen–Loeve expansion. The hydraulic head h is then represented by a perturbation expansion, and each term in the perturbation expansion is written as the products of unknown coefficients and Gaussian standard random variables obtained from the Karhunen–Loeve expansions. A series of deterministic partial differential equations are derived from the stochastic partial differential equations. The resulting equations for uncorrelated and perfectly correlated cases are developed. The equations can be solved sequentially from low to high order by the finite element method. We examine the accuracy of the KLME approach for the groundwater flow subject to uncorrelated or perfectly correlated random inputs and study the capability of the KLME method for predicting the head variance in the presence of various spatially variable parameters. It is shown that the proposed numerical model gives accurate results at a much smaller computational cost than the Monte Carlo simulation.  相似文献   

非线性被动土压力     

吴明  夏唐代  许军平  孙苗苗 《煤田地质与勘探》2009,37(2):29

用双曲线数学模型描述被动土压力变化和挡土结构位移变化的关系。基于Mindlin弹性解,推导了土体某深度矩形区域作用均布水平荷载时该矩形区域内任意点水平位移的表达式,并用该表达式确定双曲线模型初始刚度。应用对数螺旋线被动土压力理论求解被动土压力,把该法求解的做图过程转化为数学迭代过程。算例表明,这样的被动土压力理论概念明确,结果准确。   相似文献   

Analysis of extreme rainfall using the log logistic distribution     

D. L. Fitzgerald 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(4):249-257

Computer-intensive methods are used to examine the fit of the log logistic distribution to annual maxima of Irish rainfall. The characteristics of the L-moment solutions are examined by using the conventional bootstrap on the data and by random sampling within the ellipse of concentration of the parameter estimates. A statistical method of examining uncertainty is provided by the maximum product of spacings solution. Factors derived from random division of an interval are proposed for estimation of short-duration falls for which no data are available.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal Rainfall Distribution and Markov Chain Analogue Year Stochastic Daily Rainfall Model in Ethiopia     

Nurilign SHIBABAW  Tesfahun BERHANE  Tesfaye KEBEDE  Assaye WALELIGN 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2022,13(2):210-219

This paper aims at the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia and developing stochastic daily rainfall model. Particularly, in this study, we used a Markov Chain Analogue Year (MCAY) model that is, Markov Chain with Analogue year (AY) component is used to model the occurrence process of daily rainfall and the intensity or amount of rainfall on wet days is described using Weibull, Log normal, mixed exponential and Gamma distributions. The MCAY model best describes the occurrence process of daily rainfall, this is due to the AY component included in the MC to model the frequency of daily rainfall. Then, by combining the occurrence process model and amount process model, we developed Markov Chain Analogue Year Weibull model (MCAYWBM), Markov Chain Analogue Year Log normal model (MCAYLNM), Markov Chain Analogue Year mixed exponential model (MCAYMEM) and Markov Chain Analogue Year gamma model (MCAYGM). The performance of the models is assessed by taking daily rainfall data from 21 weather stations (ranging from 1 January 1984-31 December 2018). The data is obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorology Agency (ENMA). The result shows that MCAYWBM, MCAYMEM and MCAYGM performs very well in the simulation of daily rainfall process in Ethiopia and their performances are nearly the same with a slight difference between them compared to MCAYLNM. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in the four models: MCAYGM, MCAYWBM, MAYMEM and MCAYLNM are 2.16%, 2.27%, 2.25% and 11.41% respectively. Hence, MCAYGM, MCAYWBM, MAYMEM models have shown an excellent performance compared to MCAYLNM. In general, the light tailed distributions: Weibull, gamma and mixed exponential distributions are appropriate probability distributions to model the intensity of daily rainfall in Ethiopia especially, when these distributions are combined with MCAYM.  相似文献   

巴喀油田裂缝发育特征及常规测井识别方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王兆生  曾联波  张振国  梁文发  李玲 《新疆地质》2012,30(3):359-362

巴喀油田中侏罗统西山窑组砂岩属低孔特低渗透裂缝性储集层.裂缝的高渗透性和渗透率非均质性影响了巴喀油田注水开发方案的部署.在结合区域构造背景和岩心观察基础上,通过对常规测井裂缝响应特征分析,应用综合概率指数与分形维数相结合的方法,开展了常规测井曲线的裂缝识别研究.巴喀油田主要发育中高角度构造剪切裂缝,近NWW向和NNE向两组裂缝在工区广泛发育.应用综合概率指数与分形维数相结合法对巴喀油田砂岩裂缝取得了良好识别效果.  相似文献   

测井数据分维计算及其应用条件研究   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

毛宁波 《地球物理学进展》2000,15(1):70-77

分形几何已成功地应用于储层表征,分维是储层一征和随机建模的控制参数,为了准确表征储层,必须精确地估计分维值。本文介绍了利用测井数据计算储层分维值的三种方法：变尺度分析法（Ｒ／Ｓ分析）,变异函数分析法、功率谱分析法,研究发现分维计算中对数据的分级处理实际上就是对数据进行灰色累加生成。研究表明影响分维估计精度的主要因素有四种：数据点数、数据概率分布、数据平稳性,无标度区,研究认为,现有的３种方法不能用  相似文献   

松科2井东孔营城组高放射性异常层测井响应特征及成因初探   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

张淑霞  邹长春  彭诚  赵金环  李宁  张小环  马火林  牛一雄 《地球物理学报》2018,61(11):4712-4728

松科2井东孔是松辽盆地科学钻探工程的主体钻孔,按照计划在全井段进行地球物理测井资料采集,为深部资源勘探及白垩纪古气候、古环境研究提供准确和全面的地球物理信息.在诸多测井方法中,自然伽马测井和自然伽马能谱测井能够测量地层的天然放射性强度和铀、钍、钾元素含量等参数,被有效地应用于放射性矿床勘查,尤其是铀资源的勘查与研究;电阻率、声波、密度和中子测井等常规测井和核磁共振成像、电阻率成像、元素俘获谱测井等特殊测井能够获取地层岩性和物性参数等信息,为铀矿勘查提供有力支持.本文利用松科2井东孔自然伽马测井资料来识别高放射性异常层;基于常规测井与特殊测井资料,结合前人的地质研究成果,分析放射性异常层的特征和成因.核测井曲线指示营城组存在两段高放射性异常层,深度分别为3096.8~3102.8 m（I号层）、3168.3~3170.9 m（Ⅱ号层）.I号层自然伽马值最高达360 API,铀含量范围20.5~29.3 ppm,综合测井和岩心资料判断该层为砾岩,具有铀成矿潜力;分析表明,构造条件和后生改造作用是影响I号层铀富集的关键因素,推测断裂-火山活动和盆地抬升剥蚀为含铀地下水及油气运移至I号层提供了通道,油气的后生还原作用最终导致了I号异常层的铀富集.Ⅱ号层自然伽马值最高达250API,钍含量22.4~37.3 ppm,铀含量5.9~11.0 ppm,为集块熔岩及凝灰岩,高放射性异常可能是高钍含量的流纹质成分和粘土矿物对铀的吸附作用导致的.松科2井东孔营城组高放射性异常层具有埋藏深度深、铀含量高等特点,表明松辽盆地深部具有找铀矿前景.  相似文献