Calibration of the specific barrier model to Iranian plateau earthquakes and development of physically based attenuation relationships for Iran   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

H. Zafarani  M. Mousavi  As. Noorzad  A. Ansari 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2008,28(7):550-576

Earthquake ground-motion relationships for soil and rock sites in Iran have been developed based on the specific barrier model (SBM) used within the context of the stochastic modeling and calibrated against up-to-date Iranian strong-motion data. A total of 171 strong-motion accelerograms recorded at distances of up to 200 km from 24 earthquakes with moment magnitudes ranging from Mw 5.2 to 7.4 are used to determine the region-specific source parameters of this model. Regression analysis was conducted using the “random effects” methodology that considers both earthquake-to-earthquake (inter-event) variability and within-earthquake (intra-event) variability to effectively handle the problem of weighting observations from different earthquakes. The minimization of the error function in each iteration of the “random effects” procedure was performed using the genetic algorithm method. The residuals are examined against available Iranian strong-motion data to confirm that the model predictions are unbiased and that there are no significant residual trends with distance and magnitude. No evidence of self-similarity breakdown is observed between the source radius and its seismic moment. To verify the robustness of the results, tests were performed to confirm that the results are unchanged if the number of observations is changed by removing different randomly selected datasets from the original database. Stochastic simulations, using the derived SBM, are then performed to predict peak ground-motion and response spectra parameters for a wide range of magnitudes and distances. The stochastic SBM predictions agree well with the new empirical regression equations proposed for Iran, Europe and Middle East in the magnitude–distance ranges well represented by the data. It has been shown that the SBM of this study provides unbiased ground-motion estimates over the entire frequency range of most engineering interests (1–10 Hz) for the Iranian earthquakes. Our results are also important for the assessment of hazards in other seismically active environments in the Middle East and Mediterranean regions.  相似文献   

A risk assessment model for produced water discharge from offshore petroleum platforms-development and validation     

Zhao L  Chen Z  Lee K 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(11):1890-1897

Produced water discharge accounts for the greater portion of wastes arising from offshore oil and gas production operations. Development and expansion of Canada’s offshore oil and gas reserves has led to concerns over the potential long-term impacts of produced water discharges to the ocean. To examine this emerging environmental issue at a regional scale, an integrated risk assessment approach was developed in this study based on the princeton ocean model (POM), a random walk (RW) and Monte Carlo simulation. The use of water quality standards arrayed in a Monte Carlo design in the developed approach has served to reflect uncertainties and quantify environmental risks associated with produced water discharge. The model was validated against field data from a platform operating off Canada’s east coast, demonstrating its usefulness in supporting effective management of future produced water discharge.  相似文献   

Longitudinal patterns of genetic diversity and larval density of the riverine caddisfly Hydropsyche orientalis (Trichoptera)     

Kozo Watanabe  Michael T. Monaghan  Tatsuo Omura 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2008,70(4):377-387

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A cascade approach to continuous rainfall data generation at point locations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Bellie Sivakumar  Ashish Sharma 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(4):451-459

High-resolution temporal rainfall data sequences serve as inputs for a range of applications in planning, design and management of small (especially urban) water resources systems, including continuous flow simulation and evaluation of alternate policies for environmental impact assessment. However, such data are often not available, since their measurements are costly and time-consuming. One alternative to obtain high-resolution data is to try to derive them from available low-resolution information through a disaggregation procedure. This study evaluates a random cascade approach for generation of high-resolution rainfall data at a point location. The approach is based on the concept of scaling in rainfall, or, relating the properties associated with the rainfall process at one temporal scale to a finer-resolution scale. The procedure involves two steps: (1) identification of the presence of scaling behavior in the rainfall process; and (2) generation of synthetic data possessing same/similar scaling properties of the observed rainfall data. The scaling identification is made using a statistical moment scaling function, and the log–Poisson distribution is assumed to generate the synthetic rainfall data. The effectiveness of the approach is tested on the rainfall data observed at the Sydney Observatory Hill, Sydney, Australia. Rainfall data corresponding to four different successively doubled resolutions (daily, 12, 6, and 3 h) are studied, and disaggregation of data is attempted only between these successively doubled resolutions. The results indicate the presence of multi-scaling behavior in the rainfall data. The synthetic data generated using the log–Poisson distribution are found to exhibit scaling behaviors that match very well with that for the observed data. However, the results also indicate that fitting the scaling function alone does not necessarily mean reproducing the broader attributes that characterize the data. This observation clearly points out the extreme caution needed in the application of the existing methods for identification of scaling in rainfall, especially since such methods are also prevalent in studies of the emerging satellite observations and thus in the broader spectrum of hydrologic modeling.  相似文献   

Random vibration analysis of long-span structures subjected to spatially varying ground motions     

Y.H. Zhang  Q.S. Li  J.H. Lin  F.W. Williams 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2009

On the basis of the pseudo-excitation method (PEM), a random vibration methodology is formulated for the seismic analysis of multi-supported structures subjected to spatially varying ground motions. The ground motion spatial variability consists of the wave passage, incoherence and site–response effects. Advantages of this method are that less computation effort is required and that the cross-correlations both between normal modes and between excitations are automatically included. Random seismic responses of a realistic long-span bridge due to the wave passage, incoherence and site–response effects are extensively investigated. It is shown that all these effects have significant influence on the seismic response of the structure.  相似文献   

Development of FBMINC model for particle diffusion in fluids     

Paul S ADDISION 《国际泥沙研究》2009,24(4):439-454

An accurate particle tracking method using FBMINC （new fractional Brownian motion） is outlined. It generates non-Fickian diffusion rather than Fickian diffusion as traditional particle tracking model does. The FBMINC model is based on fractional Brownian motion （fl3m） which is generalization of regular Brownian motion. The two models of fBms （FBM model and FBMINC model） were explored and the differences of the two models are compared from the three aspects： the standard deviation of each step, the small memory and the effect of the number of particles in the cloud. The results show the FBMINC model is a better model as it produces more accurate statistics. The effect of simple shear dispersion for both Brownian and fBm was investigated. The power law scaling of fBm shear dispersion was correctly identified. In addition, a scaling coettieient was found numerically. The FBMINC model is then used for producing both superdiffusive and subdiffusive particle paths, therefore, the non-Fickian diffusion of soil particle clouds can be modelled. The particle clouds represent soil contaminant are released in an idealised coastal bay and the fBm particle tracking method is used for simulation the particle cloud spreading in the bay. There is a noticeable increase in the spreading rate of the cloud. In addition, owning to the spreading rate of the cloud, a noticeable part of it has escaped the bay area and transported downstream. The variation of the Hurst exponent can lead to an area of the flow being affected by a contaminant cloud which is not picked up by the regular Brownian motion models. The purpose of this paper is to bring soil transport engineers a new angle on soil particle transport research in fluids. Using FBM1NC particle tracking model allows more flexibility in simulation of diffusion in soil contaminant spread in coastal bay or ocean surface.  相似文献   

潭江流域林业结构地域差异与调整对策     

陈志良  吴志峰  夏念和  程炯  刘平 《热带地理》2006,26(1):35-39

在社会经济快速发展的珠江三角洲地区,人类活动日益强烈,森林生态系统在平衡人类影响中的作用日益显著,但人工森林结构与分布差异越来越成为影响森林生态系统功能发挥的瓶颈.研究发现:(1)潭江流域林业用地结构失衡,作为潭江上游的恩平有林地面积仅占23.99%,潭江下游江门市区仅占13.93%,而未成林地,恩平却高达41.66%,这种森林分布结构不利于上游水源涵养功能与下游生态补偿功能的发挥;(2)无林地地域差异较大,人工造林仍有很大的潜力,台山、恩平、开平及江门市区无林地分别占全市域无林地面积的49.96%、14  相似文献   

云南石林岩溶发育的古环境研究   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

李玉辉  杨一光  梁永宁  任坚  耿弘 《中国岩溶》2001,20(2):91-95

以地质地貌景观调查、填图为基础,应用区域地层、古地磁资料、植物和孢粉化石、岩石与古土壤的化学成分(含稀土元素)、古土壤粘粒硅铝比值、钙华、溶蚀率等资料,研究了石林岩溶各主要演化阶段的古环境特点。石林地区能保留有早二叠世晚期至第四纪的石林岩溶是源于该区特殊古地理环境演变所控制的不同古环境下的岩溶过程差异。按照岩溶与环境的关系,可将石林岩溶演化的漫长过程分别划分出有利于石林岩溶发育与有利于石林岩溶保存的不同时期。石林地区的石林岩溶经历了古热带湿热海岸边缘、古热带行星风系干旱环境、半干旱山地湖泊环境与热带低海拔湿热气候到高原亚热带干湿季风气候演变。石林地区是研究漫长地质时期的不同环境下石林岩溶发育与保存的较好地点之一。   相似文献   

The relationships of population and forest trends   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

A. S. MATHER  C. L. NEEDLE 《The Geographical journal》2000,166(1):2-13

The relationship between national trends in forest area and population is reviewed at the global scale. Evidence of an inverse relationship is confirmed. The relationship, however, may have weakened in recent decades, and it has clearly undergone a reversal in some countries during the nineteenth to twentieth centuries. The theme of a changing relationship through time is thus developed, as is that of an asymmetrical relationship in the sense that the forest area is likely to stabilize before population. On the basis of modelling from the current demographic relationship, the global forest area should stabilize before the middle of the twenty-first century.  相似文献   

Changes in air pollutants during the COVID-19 lockdown in Beijing:Insights from a machine-learning technique and implications for future control policy          下载免费PDF全文

Jiabao Hu  Yuepeng Pan  Yuexin He  Xiyuan Chi  Qianqian Zhang  Tao Song  Weishou Shen 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(4):63-69

基于2015-2020年北京35个环境空气站和20个气象站观测资料,应用机器学习方法(随机森林算法)分离了气象条件和源排放对大气污染物浓度的影响.结果发现,为应对疫情采取的隔离措施使北京2020年春节期间大气污染物浓度降低了35.1％-51.8％;其中,背景站氮氧化物和一氧化碳浓度的降幅最大,超过了以往报道较多的交通站...  相似文献