A drought outlook study in Korea     

Young-Oh Kim  Jae-Kyoung Lee  Richard. N. Palmer 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1141-1153

Abstract

Techniques are proposed for developing a monthly and weekly drought outlook and the drought outlook components are evaluated. A drought index, the surface water supply index (SWSI) was modified and used for the drought outlook. A water balance model (abcd) was successfully calibrated using a regional regression, including monthly and weekly factors, and was used to convert meteorology to hydrology. For the monthly drought outlook, an ensemble technique was applied, both with and without monthly industrial meteorology information (MIMI). For the weekly drought outlook, a deterministic forecasting technique was applied employing the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS). The methodologies were applied to the Geum River basin in Korea. While only the weekly outlook using the GDAPS has sufficient forecasting capability to suggest it might be useful, the accuracy of the monthly drought outlook is expected to improve as the climate forecast accuracy increases.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes

Citation Kim, Y.-O., Lee, J.-K., and Palmer, R.N., 2012. A drought outlook study in Korea. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1141–1153.  相似文献   

陆川县冬种马铃薯生产中瓶颈问题的气象探索     

洪展  周展程 《气象研究与应用》2011,32(4):49-50,66

对陆川县主栽的马铃薯品种黑龙江K3紫花,采用稻草免耕栽培措施分四次播种进行试验,对试验中造成马铃薯的出苗期烂种、生长后期晚疫病等原因的气象条件进行分析,并探索解决的方法。  相似文献   

GIS气象数据的管理与表达方法     

何永健  曹芸  黄勇 《南京气象学院学报》2011,(3):232-237

将气象数据分为离散数据、格网数据和要素数据,在此基础上,建立了气象数据库,包括气象资料信息数据库、社会资料信息库、基础地理数据库和气象空间数据库,并详细分析了气象数据的组织结构、表达和处理方法,最后提出了基于GIS的气象数据管理与表达的处理方法.  相似文献   

Nelder-Mead单纯形算法改进及在气象上的应用          下载免费PDF全文

张正秋 《应用气象学报》2011,22(5)

Nelder-Mead Simplex (NMS)算法是一种查找多元函数局地最小值的无微分算法,在现代科学计算中得到广泛应用,该文提出了一种对NMS算法的改进方法.改进后,大大简化了其计算过程,提高了该算法的收敛速度.利用改进后的算法对陆面过程参数进行了拟合计算,结果表明:改进的NMS算法对非线性公式具有非常高的拟合精度,可将其应用于气象学上非线性问题计算或非线性方程组求解.  相似文献   

青藏高原东坡高原草甸近地层气象要素与能量输送季节变化分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵兴炳  李跃清 《四川气象》2011,(2):12-17

本文简要介绍了青藏高原东坡理塘大气综合观测站的情况。利用该站2007~2008年观测资料,分析比较了青藏高原东坡地区高原草甸下垫面情况下近地层气象要素及能量输送的季节变化特征。结果表明：理塘地区近地层气象要素及能量输送的季节变化显著,具有明显的水热同期特点。各个季节近地层气象要素和湍流通量,如风、气温、感热通量、潜热通量等,日变化显著。风速、动量通量、摩擦速度等要素的平均日最大值和最小值分别出现在下午和日出前。比湿的峰值出现在日出前。辐射和热平衡分量的日均最大值与最小值分别出现在正午及日出前。地表热源强度分析表明,理塘白天为热源,在春夏秋三季夜间为弱的热源与冷源交替出现。在雨季,潜热输送在陆气间热量交换过程中占主导作用,感热输送是次要的;干季的结果与雨季相反,感热是首要的。  相似文献   

0903号台风“莲花”的风结构分析     

张加春  饶灶鑫  陈煜  蔡巧晖 《台湾海峡》2011,30(4):507-511

通过对0903号台风“莲花”在登陆福建晋江并沿着海岸线北上过程中的沿海自动站逐时实况风场资料的分析,研究了该台风的风结构状况,得到以下结论：（1）台风近中心最大风速预报值比实测风速偏小,台风7级风半径则比实际的偏大．（2）实测2min平均风速最大值（Vmax）总体上呈减弱趋势,与时间（t）的回归方程式为：Vmax=28．9—0．61t（n=16,r=0．78,r005=0．50）．（3）台风最大风速半径（R）呈逐渐扩大的趋势,与时间（t）的回归方程式为：R=28．28—4．98t＋0．67t。（n=16,r=0．95,r0.05=0．50）．（4）台风最大风速区位于台风后部．认识台风风结构,有助于不断地提高预报的准确性．  相似文献   

灾害天气对若尔盖旅游安全影响的时间特征分析     

杨雅麟  彭林英  王全兰  何钰  黄待富 《成都信息工程学院学报》2011,26(1):47-51

利用若尔盖1971-2000年的大风、雷暴、冰雹、积雪、雾及飑的逐年各月气象资料,用现代统计方法,分别逐类、逐月、逐年代统计若尔盖地区旅游气象灾害出现频次、时间变化特征,并对其变化特征及主要旅游气象灾害发生规律进行气候综合分析,结合旅游安全社会经验,统计出若尔盖气象灾害发生月份集中在4-8月,主要是春、夏两个季节。而较少月份集中在8-2月,为秋、冬两季。若尔盖地区适宜旅游期月份为5、6、7、8、9月,非常适宜旅游区月份为6、7、8月,疗养期月份为7月。而该时段为灾害频发期,因此应特别注意对灾害天气的预防和应对。为当地旅游管理部门提供参考,为旅游投资与实施建设提供气象依据,为旅游者选择旅游季节及评估旅游安全提供帮助。  相似文献   

2009 年我国汛期降水形势总结与三个常用模式预报效果检验   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

公颖  李俊  鞠晓慧 《热带气象学报》2011,27(6):823-833

利用实况24小时降水、形势场资料及T213、T639、Japan模式降水、形势场的预报资料,对2009年汛期(5-9月,下同)中国降水时空分布进行分析,并对T213、T639、Japan三个常用模式对2009年汛期的天气形势、降水及其影响系统的预报做主客观检验,以期得出2009年汛期降水分布特点及三个模式的降水预报效果对比.结果表明:(1) 2009年汛期华南地区降水量为全国之最,长江中下游和西南东部地区其次,东北和华北地区再次.(2)从TS评分看,Japan模式的小雨～大雨量级评分较高,T639模式暴雨～大暴雨量级评分较高；T213模式对华北地区暴雨、大暴雨量级降水预报评分高于Japan和T639模式.(3)从降水预报偏差看,T213模式对华北预报明显偏强,T639模式对华北预报强度较为适中,两模式对其他区域中等以下强度降水预报偏强,对强降水预报偏弱；T639对中等以下强度降水预报偏强程度明显小于T213,而对强降水除华南和东北区域外,预报偏弱程度明显大于T213；Japan模式预报偏差随降水量级增大而减小,对大雨以上各量级预报均明显偏弱,且偏弱程度明显大于T213、 T639.(4)由代表性形势场预报检验结果可知,除T213对500hPa高度场、850hPa温度场预报效果好于其他两模式外,各模式预报效果相差不大.(5)三个模式对500 hPa副高总体预报偏东、偏北、偏强,但Japan预报效果明显好于T213、T639.(6) T639模式对台风和低涡的预报相对较好,T213较差.  相似文献   

蛇类人工养殖与气象条件关系的初步研究     

薛家驹  顾晶  黄波  姜长稷 《气象》2000,26(6):55-57

根据蛇场养殖经验和实验 ,得到人工养蛇的不同生育阶段的温、湿度指标 ,为进一步提高养蛇的经济效益 ,提供一些技术参数  相似文献   

The Kwinana Coastal Fumigation Study: III – Meteorological and Turbulence Modelling on Selected Days     

Peter J. Hurley  Ashok K. Luhar 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2000,94(1):115-138

The Kwinana Coastal Fumigation Study took place inearly 1995 at Kwinana near Perth in Western Australia.The study involved surface and elevated meteorologicaland plume fumigation measurements in sea-breeze flowsnear the coast, and has yielded a comprehensive dataset that is suitable for assessing meteorological andplume dispersion models. In this paper, wesimulate the meteorology and turbulence on four casestudy days, and compare model results with thedetailed surface and aircraft measurements takenduring the study. These days had surface synopticwinds ranging from southerly to northeasterly, witheither stable or near-neutral temperature profilesover the sea.The model used was based on that developed by Hurley(Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 83, 43–73, 1997), but extended here to allow domain nesting,optional non-hydrostatic simulations, and a vegetativecanopy at the surface. The model was forced bystandard weather service synoptic data, and thesimulations have captured the essential features ofthe strong sea-breeze circulation observed on thesedays. The boundary-layer structure over the sea waspredicted to be near-neutral or stable in agreementwith the observations on the particular day. The windspeed and direction in the sea-breeze flow weregenerally predicted well, although the predictedmaximum inflow speed over the land was a little toohigh. The potential temperature was generallyover-predicted, but temperature gradients agreed well.Predicted turbulence levels in the bottom-half of thethermal internal boundary layer compared well to theobservations, but under-estimated the observations inthe in the upper half of this layer. Near-surfacemeasurements of meteorological variables werepredicted well over the entire diurnal cycle, althoughthe predicted sea-breeze onset was generally tooearly. A quantitative model evaluation for thenear-surface sites showed the model performance to bebetter than that from other studies, with Index ofAgreement (IOA) values of 0.8 (wind speed) and 0.96(temperature), compared with values of 0.5–0.6 (windspeed) and 0.33 (temperature) obtained from otherstudies.The availability of new higher resolution synopticanalyses should obviate the lack of spatial andtemporal resolution in synoptic inputs. Theincorporation of these higher resolution synopticinputs and new parameterisation schemes should improvefuture model performance.  相似文献