0903号台风“莲花”的风结构分析     

张加春  饶灶鑫  陈煜  蔡巧晖 《台湾海峡》2011,30(4):507-511

通过对0903号台风“莲花”在登陆福建晋江并沿着海岸线北上过程中的沿海自动站逐时实况风场资料的分析,研究了该台风的风结构状况,得到以下结论：（1）台风近中心最大风速预报值比实测风速偏小,台风7级风半径则比实际的偏大．（2）实测2min平均风速最大值（Vmax）总体上呈减弱趋势,与时间（t）的回归方程式为：Vmax=28．9—0．61t（n=16,r=0．78,r005=0．50）．（3）台风最大风速半径（R）呈逐渐扩大的趋势,与时间（t）的回归方程式为：R=28．28—4．98t＋0．67t。（n=16,r=0．95,r0.05=0．50）．（4）台风最大风速区位于台风后部．认识台风风结构,有助于不断地提高预报的准确性．  相似文献   

灾害天气对若尔盖旅游安全影响的时间特征分析     

杨雅麟  彭林英  王全兰  何钰  黄待富 《成都信息工程学院学报》2011,26(1):47-51

利用若尔盖1971-2000年的大风、雷暴、冰雹、积雪、雾及飑的逐年各月气象资料,用现代统计方法,分别逐类、逐月、逐年代统计若尔盖地区旅游气象灾害出现频次、时间变化特征,并对其变化特征及主要旅游气象灾害发生规律进行气候综合分析,结合旅游安全社会经验,统计出若尔盖气象灾害发生月份集中在4-8月,主要是春、夏两个季节。而较少月份集中在8-2月,为秋、冬两季。若尔盖地区适宜旅游期月份为5、6、7、8、9月,非常适宜旅游区月份为6、7、8月,疗养期月份为7月。而该时段为灾害频发期,因此应特别注意对灾害天气的预防和应对。为当地旅游管理部门提供参考,为旅游投资与实施建设提供气象依据,为旅游者选择旅游季节及评估旅游安全提供帮助。  相似文献   

2009 年我国汛期降水形势总结与三个常用模式预报效果检验   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

公颖  李俊  鞠晓慧 《热带气象学报》2011,27(6):823-833

利用实况24小时降水、形势场资料及T213、T639、Japan模式降水、形势场的预报资料,对2009年汛期(5-9月,下同)中国降水时空分布进行分析,并对T213、T639、Japan三个常用模式对2009年汛期的天气形势、降水及其影响系统的预报做主客观检验,以期得出2009年汛期降水分布特点及三个模式的降水预报效果对比.结果表明:(1) 2009年汛期华南地区降水量为全国之最,长江中下游和西南东部地区其次,东北和华北地区再次.(2)从TS评分看,Japan模式的小雨～大雨量级评分较高,T639模式暴雨～大暴雨量级评分较高；T213模式对华北地区暴雨、大暴雨量级降水预报评分高于Japan和T639模式.(3)从降水预报偏差看,T213模式对华北预报明显偏强,T639模式对华北预报强度较为适中,两模式对其他区域中等以下强度降水预报偏强,对强降水预报偏弱；T639对中等以下强度降水预报偏强程度明显小于T213,而对强降水除华南和东北区域外,预报偏弱程度明显大于T213；Japan模式预报偏差随降水量级增大而减小,对大雨以上各量级预报均明显偏弱,且偏弱程度明显大于T213、 T639.(4)由代表性形势场预报检验结果可知,除T213对500hPa高度场、850hPa温度场预报效果好于其他两模式外,各模式预报效果相差不大.(5)三个模式对500 hPa副高总体预报偏东、偏北、偏强,但Japan预报效果明显好于T213、T639.(6) T639模式对台风和低涡的预报相对较好,T213较差.  相似文献   

辽宁省高速公路气象保障服务系统设计与展望          下载免费PDF全文

卢娟  郭刚  邢江月  张纯  唐亚平  万志强 《气象与环境学报》2007,23(2):50-53

为了提高辽宁省高速公路的气象保障服务能力,提出了建立辽宁高速公路气象保障服务系统的设想。分析了辽宁及国内外的高速公路气象保障的研究概况,在此基础上,根据高速公路管理部门对于气象保障服务的实际需求,认为建立高速公路气象保障服务系统应合理布设和增加高速公路沿线的自动气象监测站点,要以气象部门信息网络为依托,以气象数据库、预报技术平台、预报技术方法为基础,有针对性地开发高速公路气象预报预警模式和决策系统,并提出了建立高速公路信息反馈及损毁评估平台的设想,试图为提高高速公路气象服务水平提供技术支撑。  相似文献   

鲅鱼圈地区污染气象特征分析   总被引：10，自引：6，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

刘翠玲  常艳君 《气象与环境学报》2006,22(1):29-33

利用近3a的鲅鱼圈地区地面常规气象资料和2005年3～4月鲅鱼圈地区低空污染气象探测资料,分析了鲅鱼圈地区低空污染气象特征。结果表明:鲅鱼圈地区各类型风速廓线出现频率比较均匀,而且由于地面粗糙度较大,因此风速廓线指数比平原地区稍大。  相似文献   

蛇类人工养殖与气象条件关系的初步研究     

薛家驹  顾晶  黄波  姜长稷 《气象》2000,26(6):55-57

根据蛇场养殖经验和实验 ,得到人工养蛇的不同生育阶段的温、湿度指标 ,为进一步提高养蛇的经济效益 ,提供一些技术参数  相似文献   

The Kwinana Coastal Fumigation Study: III – Meteorological and Turbulence Modelling on Selected Days     

Peter J. Hurley  Ashok K. Luhar 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2000,94(1):115-138

The Kwinana Coastal Fumigation Study took place inearly 1995 at Kwinana near Perth in Western Australia.The study involved surface and elevated meteorologicaland plume fumigation measurements in sea-breeze flowsnear the coast, and has yielded a comprehensive dataset that is suitable for assessing meteorological andplume dispersion models. In this paper, wesimulate the meteorology and turbulence on four casestudy days, and compare model results with thedetailed surface and aircraft measurements takenduring the study. These days had surface synopticwinds ranging from southerly to northeasterly, witheither stable or near-neutral temperature profilesover the sea.The model used was based on that developed by Hurley(Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 83, 43–73, 1997), but extended here to allow domain nesting,optional non-hydrostatic simulations, and a vegetativecanopy at the surface. The model was forced bystandard weather service synoptic data, and thesimulations have captured the essential features ofthe strong sea-breeze circulation observed on thesedays. The boundary-layer structure over the sea waspredicted to be near-neutral or stable in agreementwith the observations on the particular day. The windspeed and direction in the sea-breeze flow weregenerally predicted well, although the predictedmaximum inflow speed over the land was a little toohigh. The potential temperature was generallyover-predicted, but temperature gradients agreed well.Predicted turbulence levels in the bottom-half of thethermal internal boundary layer compared well to theobservations, but under-estimated the observations inthe in the upper half of this layer. Near-surfacemeasurements of meteorological variables werepredicted well over the entire diurnal cycle, althoughthe predicted sea-breeze onset was generally tooearly. A quantitative model evaluation for thenear-surface sites showed the model performance to bebetter than that from other studies, with Index ofAgreement (IOA) values of 0.8 (wind speed) and 0.96(temperature), compared with values of 0.5–0.6 (windspeed) and 0.33 (temperature) obtained from otherstudies.The availability of new higher resolution synopticanalyses should obviate the lack of spatial andtemporal resolution in synoptic inputs. Theincorporation of these higher resolution synopticinputs and new parameterisation schemes should improvefuture model performance.  相似文献   

Total ozone decrease in the Arctic after REP events     

V. C. Roldugin  M. I. Beloglazov  G. F. Remenets 《Annales Geophysicae》2000,18(3):332-336

Eight periods of relativistic electron precipitation (REP) with electron energies of more than 300 keV are identified from VLF data (10/14 kHz) monitored along the Aldra (Norway) / Apatity (Kola peninsula) radio trace. In these cases, anomalous ionization below 55/50 km occurred without disturbing the higher layers of the ionosphere. The daily total ozone values in Murmansk for six days before and six days after the REP events are compared. In seven of eight events a decrease in the total ozone of about 20 DU is observed. In one event of 25 March, 1986, the mean total ozone value for six days before the REP is bigger han that for six days after, but this a case of an extremely high ozone increase (144 DU during the six days). However, on days 3 and 4 there was a minimum of about 47 DU with regard to REP days, so this case also confirms the concept of the ozone decrease after REP. The difference between mean ozone values for periods six days before and six days after the REPs was found also for 23 points in Arctic on TOMS data. The difference was negative only in Murmansk longitudinal sector. Along the meridian of the trace it was negative at high latitudes in both hemispheres and was near zero at low latitudes.  相似文献   

Stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone, calculated with a Lagrangian method     

M. Sigmond  J. Meloen  P. C. Siegmund 《Annales Geophysicae》2000,18(5):573-582

A Lagrangian technique is developed and applied to calculate stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone. This exchange is computed from the potential vorticity or PV along trajectories, calculated from ECMWF circulation data. Special emphasis is put on the statistical significance of the results. The computed field of the cross-tropopause flux is dominated by elongated patterns of statistically significant large downward and small upward fluxes. The downward fluxes mainly occur in the lower part of the considered tropopause folds. The upward fluxes are found near the entrance of the folds, in the tropopause ridges. The ratio between the area averaged downward and upward cross-tropopause fluxes increases with increasing strength of the cyclone. Since the largest fluxes are shown to occur in the regions with the largest wind shear, where PV-mixing is thought to cause large cross-tropopause fluxes, the results are expected to be reliable, at least in a qualitative sense. The position of a tropopause fold along the northwest coast of Africa is confirmed by total ozone observations. The results indicate that the applied Lagrangian technique is an appropriate tool for diagnosing stratosphere-troposphere exchange.  相似文献   

人工智能在飞机颠簸预报中的应用进展及未来趋势展望          下载免费PDF全文

朱玉祥  刘海文  万文龙  姜晓飞  尕藏程林 《大气科学学报》2023,46(6):825-836

飞机颠簸对飞机运行安全及旅客舒适度具有很大危害,提高飞机颠簸的预报准确率对于减轻人员伤害和财产损失具有重要意义,且一直是航空气象研究的重点领域。随着观测手段的丰富和科学技术的进步,飞机颠簸预报也取得了长足发展。本文首先从定性预报和定量预报的角度对国内外飞机颠簸预报的主要方法,特别是人工智能(AI)方法在其中的最新应用进行了综述。在此基础上,归纳总结出AI用于飞机湍流预报存在的主要问题和未来的重点研究方向：1)飞机实况数据的开放共享以及多源湍流数据的融合构建问题;2)基于人工智能构建飞机颠簸预报模型的可解释性及物理机制问题;3)基于人工智能构建飞机颠簸的集合预报问题。最后,提出了气象领域未来第三代人工智能的发展思路。  相似文献