System Reliability Analysis of an Offshore Jacket Platform     

ZHAO Yuliang  DONG Sheng  JIANG Fengyuan  GUEDES SOARES Carlos 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2020,19(1):47-59

This study investigates strategies for solving the system reliability of large three-dimensional jacket structures.These structural systems normally fail as a result of a series of different components failures.The failure characteristics are investigated under various environmental conditions and direction combinations.Theβ-unzipping technique is adopted to determine critical failure components,and the entire system is simplified as a series-parallel system to approximately evaluate the structural system reliability.However,this approach needs excessive computational effort for searching failure components and failure paths.Based on a trained artificial neural network(ANN),which can be used to approximate the implicit limit-state function of a complicated structure,a new alternative procedure is proposed to improve the efficiency of the system reliability analysis method.The failure probability is calculated through Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)with Latin hypercube sampling(LHS).The features and applicability of the above procedure are discussed and compared using an example jacket platform located in Chengdao Oilfield,Bohai Sea,China.This study provides a reference for the evaluation of the system reliability of jacket structures.  相似文献   

天津地面相对湿度资料的非均一性检验及订正     

司鹏  罗传军  姜罕盛  徐梅 《气象》2018,44(10):1332-1341

研究中利用NCEP/DOEAMIP-ⅡReanalysis(R-2)比湿再分析资料和基础观测资料两种参考序列,对天津历史月平均相对湿度数据中存在的非均一性因素进行了检验和订正。结果显示,有9个地面站的相对湿度序列存在显著断点,占台站总数的69%。查阅台站元数据得到导致其突变的主要原因是自动站业务化,其次为迁站和仪器变更。从订正量来看,负订正量比例约占96. 3%,其中分布范围在-5.0%～-1.5%,约占总订正量的80%以上。对比分析订正前后月平均相对湿度序列的方差和趋势变化,均一性订正基本修正了非均一性因素造成的突变影响,减缓相对湿度序列长期出现异常偏干的趋势变化。同时,与朱亚妮等(2015)研制的同类数据产品误差分析发现,两类数据的误差平均值较小,但由于一些主观因素影响使得个别台站MAE、SE误差值达到3. 0%以上,造成MAE、SE误差值范围在0～2%的台站比例分别仅在84. 6%和76. 9%及两者以上。从而,一定程度上能够反映出本研究所采用的数据处理技术手段相对以往具有优越性。  相似文献   

Measuring place-based accessibility under travel time uncertainty     

Bi Yu Chen  Donggen Wang  Shih-Lung Shaw  Hui-Ping Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(4):783-804

Travel time uncertainty has significant impacts on individual activity-travel scheduling, but at present these impacts have not been considered in most accessibility studies. In this paper, an accessibility evaluation framework is proposed for urban areas with uncertain travel times. A reliable space-time service region (RSTR) model is introduced to represent the space-time service region of a facility under travel time uncertainty. Based on the RSTR model, four reliable place-based accessibility measures are proposed to evaluate accessibility to urban services by incorporating the effects of travel time reliability. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, a case study using large-scale taxi tracking data is carried out. The results of the case study indicate that the proposed accessibility measures can evaluate large-scale place-based accessibility well in urban areas with uncertain travel times. Conventional place-based accessibility indicators ignoring travel time reliability can significantly overestimate the accessibility to urban services.  相似文献   

不同测算方法下行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响分析     

肖中圣  许奇  毛保华  魏润斌  冯佳 《地球信息科学学报》2022,24(11):2102-2114

行程时间不确定性导致了可达性随时间的变化,相关研究表明忽略行程时间不确定性会高估可达性水平。既有可达性研究往往用行程时间可靠性表示行程时间不确定性,但未考虑不同可达性模型结果的差异以及行程时间可靠性价值。本文结合各OD之间的行程时间分布特征,构建方差型的行程时间可靠性来描述行程时间不确定性,并进一步将行程时间可靠性纳入到广义出行时间成本中,建立了时间距离模型、潜力模型、累计机会模型和高斯模型4种基于位置的可达性测算方法,以比较在不同测算方法下,行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响。深圳的案例研究表明：① 忽略行程时间不确定性会使全区域的可达性至少被高估5.04%,最大被高估95.04%。潜力模型、时间距离模型、累计机会模型和高斯模型的高估幅度由低到高;② 行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响存在阈值效应,阈值越高,可达性受影响的程度越小;③ 从空间分布来看,行程时间不确定性对可达性水平高和低的区域都有一定影响。若不考虑行程时间不确定性,可达性高的区域高估值大,而在可达性低的区域,可达性高估的百分比较大,高估百分比中位数的差异程度最大可达77.1%;④ 行程时间不确定性对潜力模型可达性分类的影响最小,对累计机会模型差异的影响最大。可达性使用者应充分考虑研究区域实际情况,结合可解释性与理论性偏好,进而选择合适的可达性模型和评判标准。  相似文献   

海工结构物桩基础竖向稳定性的可靠度分析     

闫澍旺  周宏杰刘润王金英  狄慧敏 《海洋工程》2004,22(1):19-24

应用可靠度理论对渤海海域中海工结构物桩基础的稳定性进行了可靠度分析,阐述了各个设计指标的变化对分项系数及可靠度指标的影响规律,并进一步对各指标的灵敏度进行比较分析。分析结果表明,在各个设计参数中,厚土层的强度指标和设计荷载是两个相对重要的参数,在渤海海域中应用API标准中规定的荷载抗力系数进行设计是适用的。  相似文献   

基于SFTP的GNSS数据采集软件的设计与实现     

黄经国  李正媛  陶冶  王军  赵斌 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(2):409-414

本文首先对GNSS数据产品服务平台的建设背景及其系统设计框架进行概述,进而介绍了平台的关键组成模块——GNSS数据采集软件。因GNSS数据采集要求安全可靠,调研后引入了SFTP安全文件传输技术,并开展了基于SFTP技术的采集软件方案的设计与实现。该方案保证了数据采集的简便、稳定和安全,为服务平台的整体建设与运行提供了有效保障。  相似文献   

Probability density evolution method for seismic liquefaction performance analysis of earth dam          下载免费PDF全文

Yu Huang  Min Xiong 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(6):925-943

To investigate the seismic liquefaction performance of earth dams under earthquake loading, we present a new methodology for evaluating the seismic response of earth dams based on a performance‐based approach and a stochastic vibration method. This study assesses an earthfill dam located in a high‐intensity seismic region of eastern China. The seismic design levels and corresponding performance indexes are selected according to performance‐based criteria and dam seismic codes. Then, nonlinear constitutive models are used to derive an array of deterministic seismic responses of the earth dam by dynamic time series analysis based on a finite element model. Based on these responses, the stochastic seismic responses and dynamic reliability of the earth dam are obtained using the probability density evolution method. Finally, the seismic performance of the earth dam is assessed by the performance‐based and reliability criteria. Our results demonstrate the accuracy of the seismic response analysis of earth dams using the random vibration method. This new method of dynamic performance analysis of earth dams demonstrates that performance‐based criteria and reliability evaluation can provide more objective indices for decision‐making rather than using deterministic seismic acceleration time series as is the current normal practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

计算结构可靠度的RBF神经网络响应面法   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

桂劲松  康海贵 《海洋工程》2004,22(3):81-85

对功能函数不能明确表达的问题进行可靠度分析,常采用响应面法。其中二次多项式响应面法应用较为广泛,采用与此方法相同的思路,提出了RBF神经网络响应面法,并通过算例与常用的BP神经网络响应面法进行了对比分析,该方法在学习速度、迭代次数等方面均优于BP神经网络响应面法。该方法用于大型复杂结构的可靠性分析,可相应提高工作效率和解题质量,具有一定实际应用价值。  相似文献   

信息管理技术在海洋工程地基可靠度分析中的应用     

刘润  闫澍旺  吕涛 《海洋技术学报》2004,23(4):90-95

进行地基可靠度的研究必须以大量的数据、资料为基础和前提,而且这些数据和资料将在实践中不断的积累和扩充。为了能有效地管理和分析建设中积累的大量数据,并实现动态的管理,文章开发研制了信息管理系统用于海洋工程地基的可靠度分析中。阐述了将现代化信息管理技术应用于象岩土工程这样的传统行业的切入点、实现方式、方法和步骤,并用实例说明信息管理系统在海洋工程地基可靠度分析中的应用。  相似文献   

利用高精度全站仪实现跨河水准测量的可靠性分析     

雷建生  李金沐 《现代测绘》2011,34(2):47-48

从实际实施跨河水准测量的两种方法所得结果精度的比较,并利用三角高程测量单向观测的高差计算公式及对跨河水准测量的高差中数中误差进行的估算,验证了利用高精度全站仪实现高精度跨河水准测量的可靠性。  相似文献