A STATISTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR TREE‐RING RECONSTRUCTION OF HIGH‐MAGNITUDE MASS MOVEMENTS: CASE STUDY OF SNOW AVALANCHES IN EASTERN CANADA          下载免费PDF全文

DANIEL GERMAIN 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2016,98(4):303-311

This paper investigates the application of the peaks‐over‐threshold method in combination with fitting of the generalized Pareto distribution for estimating the frequency of high‐magnitude geomorphic events, on the basis of tree‐ring data. In particular, attention is focused on extreme value distribution of tree‐ring responses and in the minimum threshold or index number required to assure the past occurrence of high‐magnitude events. The objective is to set a threshold, adapted to the sample distribution, which will make the distinction between high‐magnitude years and remaining years, where the response of sampled trees is too weak to be attributed to a high‐magnitude geomorphic event. The statistical framework proposed is based on the statistics of extremes. Through the use of simple, strong and effective mathematics, this model should strengthen the position of dendrogeomorphology in the evaluation and management of natural hazards.  相似文献   

Tracking temporal palynofloral changes close to Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary in Deccan volcanic associated sediments of eastern part of central Deccan volcanic province     

《世界地质(英文版)》2016,(4):205-215

Deccan volcanic sequences( DVS) in the central Deccan volcanic province( CDVP) are designated as Sahyadri Group having ~ 500 m thick lava pile associated with multiple sedimentary beds at different stratigraphic levels. In the eastern part of CDVP between the latitude 19 °55 '--20 °25 ' N and the longitudes 78 °15 '--78 °30 ' E,palynological investigation of the intertrappean sedimentary beds at five stratigraphic levels was carried out. The study was basically aimed for tracking the floral and environmental changes across the Deccan transition. The resulting finds indicate that the intertrappean sediments at the lowest stratigraphic level between the earliest lava flows are characterized by presence of marker Maastrichtian palynomorphs- Gabonisporis vigourouxii,Aquilapollenites bengalensis,Azolla cretacea and Farabeipollis associated with triporate and tricolpate pollen grains,phytoliths of Oryzeae of Poaceae family and peridinoid dinoflagellate cysts. The increasing volcanism deteriorated the existing flora as evident by absence of pollen-spores and presence of only structured biodegraded organic matter,fungal spores,acritarchs and algal( Botryococcus) remains in the sediments of higher-up in the sequence. For chronostratigraphic constraints on the lava flows magnetic polarity of the flows bracketing the intertrappean beds was investigated. The results indicated presence of N-R-N-R magnetic polarity in the basal lava pile that are interpreted as representing the magnetochron C30 N to C28 R( Maastrichtian-Paleogene). The floral change begins with the onset of volcanism in the chron C30 N and floral deterioration is observed in C29 N with increasing volcanism and it is only in the chron C28 R( Danian) that some evidence of recovery of flora is recorded. The current study shows that in eastern part of CDVP the post Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary eruptions represent the main phase of eruptions that triggered deterioration of the flora.  相似文献   

Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and associated uncertainties     

《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(4):141-153

This study deals with the evolution of the hydrological cycle over France during the 21st century. A large multi-member, multi-scenario, and multi-model ensemble of climate projections is downscaled with a new statistical method to drive a physically-based hydrological model with recent improvements. For a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation changes generally remain small, except over southern France, where decreases close to 20% are projected. Annual streamflows roughly decrease by 10% (±20%) on the Seine, by 20% (±20%) on the Loire, by 20% (±15%) on the Rhone and by 40% (±15%) on the Garonne. Attenuation measures, as implied by the other scenarios analyzed, lead to less severe changes. However, even with a scenario generally compatible with a limitation of global warming to two degrees, some notable impacts may still occur, with for example a decrease in summer river flows close to 25% for the Garonne.  相似文献   

基于MODIS数据的青藏高原冰川反照率时空分布及变化研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

徐田利  邬光剑  张学磊  燕妮  杨松 《冰川冻土》2018,40(5):875-883

冰川反照率对冰川融化具有重要影响,以2000-2013年MODIS的MOD10A1逐日积雪反照率数据资料为基础,分析了青藏高原冰川反照率的时空分布及变化。结果表明：冰川年平均反照率变化范围是0.42（枪勇冰川）~0.75（PT5冰川）,其中夏季平均反照率变化范围是0.45（来古冰川）~0.69（东绒布冰川和古里雅冰川）。冰川反照率空间分布并没有明显的规律性,而冰川反照率的变化速率空间分布规律明显——南部较大往北减小,北部反照率出现增大现象。研究区内大部分冰川反照率呈波动降低的趋势,年平均反照率和夏季平均反照率变化速率最大值都出现在枪勇冰川,分别是-0.015 a^-1和-0.019 a^-1。木吉和木孜塔格冰川年平均和夏季平均冰川反照率都增大,木吉冰川是由于2012年的高反照率引起的,而木孜塔格冰川主要与该地区气温降低、降水增多有关。  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal change patterns of urban lakes in China’s major cities between 1990 and 2015     

Cong Xie  Leiguang Wang  Xing Fang  Wenzhi Liao 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2018,11(11):1085-1102

China has experienced unprecedented urbanization in the past decades, resulting in dramatic changes in the physical, limnological, and hydrological characteristics of lakes in urban landscapes. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics in distribution and abundance of urban lakes in China remain poorly understood. Here, we characterized the spatiotemporal change patterns of urban lakes in China’s major cities between 1990 and 2015 using remote-sensing data and landscape metrics. The results showed that the urban lake landscape patterns have experienced drastic changes over the past 25 years. The total surface area of the urban lakes has decreased by 17,620.02?ha, a decrease of 24.22%, with a significant increase in the landscape fragmentation and a reduction in shape complexity. We defined three lake-shrinkage types and found that vanishment was the most common lake-shrinkage pattern, followed by edge-shrinkage and tunneling in terms of lake area. Moreover, we also found that urban sprawl was the dominant driver of the lake shrinkage, accounting for 67.89% of the total area loss, and the transition from lakes to cropland was also an important factor (19.86%). This study has potential for providing critical baseline information for government decision-making in lake resources management and urban landscape design.  相似文献   

SensePlace3: a geovisual framework to analyze place–time–attribute information in social media     

Scott Pezanowski  Alan M MacEachren  Alexander Savelyev  Anthony C Robinson 《制图学和地理信息科学》2018,45(5):420-437

SensePlace3 (SP3) is a geovisual analytics framework and web application that supports overview + detail analysis of social media, focusing on extracting meaningful information from the Twitterverse. SP3 leverages social media related to crisis events. It differs from most existing systems by enabling an analyst to obtain place-relevant information from tweets that have implicit as well as explicit geography. Specifically, SP3 includes not just the ability to utilize the explicit geography of geolocated tweets but also analyze implicit geography by recognizing and geolocating references in both tweet text, which indicates locations tweeted about, and in Twitter profiles, which indicates locations affiliated with users. Key features of SP3 reported here include flexible search and filtering capabilities to support information foraging; an ingest, processing, and indexing pipeline that produces near real-time access for big streaming data; and a novel strategy for implementing a web-based multi-view visual interface with dynamic linking of entities across views. The SP3 system architecture was designed to support crisis management applications, but its design flexibility makes it easily adaptable to other domains. We also report on a user study that provided input to SP3 interface design and suggests next steps for effective spatiotemporal analytics using social media sources.  相似文献   

Rice crop phenology mapping at high spatial and temporal resolution using downscaled MODIS time-series     

Alex O. Onojeghuo  George A. Blackburn  Qunming Wang  Peter M. Atkinson  Daniel Kindred  Yuxin Miao 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2018,55(5):659-677

Satellite data holds considerable potential as a source of information on rice crop growth which can be used to inform agronomy. However, given the typical field sizes in many rice-growing countries such as China, data from coarse spatial resolution satellite systems such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are inadequate for resolving crop growth variability at the field scale. Nevertheless, systems such as MODIS do provide images with sufficient frequency to be able to capture the detail of rice crop growth trajectories throughout a growing season. In order to generate high spatial and temporal resolution data suitable for mapping rice crop phenology, this study fused MODIS data with lower frequency, higher spatial resolution Landsat data. An overall workflow was developed which began with image preprocessing, calculation of multi-temporal normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images, and spatiotemporal fusion of data from the two sensors. The Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model was used to effectively downscale the MODIS data to deliver a time-series of 30 m spatial resolution NDVI data at 8-day intervals throughout the rice-growing season. Zonal statistical analysis was used to extract NDVI time-series for individual fields and signal filtering was applied to the time-series to generate rice phenology curves. The downscaled MODIS NDVI products were able to characterize the development of paddy rice at fine spatial and temporal resolutions, across wide spatial extents over multiple growing seasons. These data permitted the extraction of key crop seasonality parameters that quantified inter-annual growth variability for a whole agricultural region and enabled mapping of the variability in crop performance between and within fields. Hence, this approach can provide rice crop growth data that is suitable for informing agronomic policy and practice across a wide range of scales.  相似文献   

Chronology of the Mediterranean sea-level highstand during the Last Interglacial: a critical review of the U/Th-dated deposits     

Francesca Pasquetti  Monica Bini  Biagio Giaccio  Andrea Ratti  Matteo Vacchi  Giovanni Zanchetta 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(7):1174-1189

Relative sea-level (RSL) evolution during Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5 in the Mediterranean basin is still not fully understood despite a plethora of morphological, stratigraphic and geochronological studies carried out on highstand deposits of this area. In this review we assembled a database of 323 U/Th-dated samples (e.g. corals, molluscs, speleothems) which were used to chronologically constrain RSL evolution within MIS 5. The application of strict geochemical criteria to the U/Th samples indicates that only ~33% of data available for the Mediterranean Sea can be considered ‘reliable’. Most of these data (~65%) refer to the MIS 5e highstand, while only ~17% could be related to the MIS 5a. No attribution to MIS 5c can be unequivocally supported. Nevertheless, the resulting framework does not allow us to define a satisfactory RSL trend during the MIS 5e highstand and subsequent MIS 5 substages. Overall, the proposed selection of reliable/unreliable data would be useful for detecting areas where MIS 5 substage attributions are not supported by confident U/Th chronological data and thus the related reconstructions need to be revised. In this regard, the resulting framework calls for a reappraisal and re-examination of the Mediterranean records with advanced geochronological methodologies.  相似文献   

松嫩平原东部土地利用时空动态变化分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨佳佳  张一鹤  冯雨林  高铁  肖红叶  刘洋  杨泽  魏明辉  张哲寰 《地质与资源》2021,29(6):627

  相似文献   

人类从哪里来？——（4）人类演化与古地理、古环境和古气候变化     

季强  季燕南  吴文盛 《江苏地质》2021,45(1):1-7

详细介绍了8 Ma以来全球气候变化的规律,研究表明地球上主要发生过3次冷气候事件：第一次冷气候事件大约发生在距今7 Ma,一股强烈的干冷气流刮过欧洲大陆,穿越赤道地区直达非洲大陆,使得原始森林开始萎缩,面积的缩小导致古猿与人类发生演化分异;第二次冷气候事件大约发生在距今4.2 Ma,那时干冷气候持续发展,非洲大陆的原始森林进一步萎缩,并逐渐演化为稀树草原,出现了南方猿人和傍人;第三次冷气候事件大约发生在距今2.3 Ma,全球气候变化波动较大,冷-暖气候交替发育,地球上出现了真正意义上的人（人属）,并逐渐演化成现代人。根据目前的研究,人类的起源和演化与古地理、古环境和古气候变化密切相关,人类演化历史大致可分为7个时期：撒海尔猿人—原初猿人时期、地居猿人时期、南方猿人—傍人时期、能人—鲁道夫人时期、匠人—直立人时期、先驱人—海德堡人时期和智人时期。  相似文献