对“十五”期间防震减灾社会需求的分析     

王云基 《四川地震》2002,(2):1-7

分析了“十五”期间社会，政府对防震减灾工作的需求，联系工作实际进行了全面论述和分析，并对推进防震减灾提出了一些有益的政策建议。  相似文献   

对永胜6级地震的预报及依据   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

程万正 《四川地震》2002,(3):9-14

2001年10月27日在云南永胜发生6.0级地震，震前四川省地震局有较准确的中期和短临预报，加强了川滇交界地区的地震监测预报工作，并且向四川省政府作了汇报，取得了明显的社会效益。经验性地震预报重视川滇菱形地块西界断裂带动态活动图像的分析，尤其对历史强震破裂空段附近出现的中小震活动带或新活跃区段的研究；同时，重视4级前震群、川滇交界地区地下水位、水温、形变观测异常的跟踪分析和震情预测。  相似文献   

加卸载响应比理论在华南地区中强震预测中的应用     

刘特培  王莉娅  潘海生 《华南地震》2002,22(2):38-42

用加卸载响应比理论对华南地区12例中强以上地震进行研究，结果表明有8例在震前响应比值有明显的高值（Y≥2.0）异常显示，通过对响应比值随时间变化特征的分析发现，响应比对5级左右地震有较好的中短期预测效果，因此响应比理论可作为本区地震预测的新方法。  相似文献   

福建漳州、华安、龙岩地区地震时间分布结构信息维的特征     

卓群 《华南地震》2002,22(3):76-79

岩石破裂实验，地球岩石层断裂构造运动，地震孕育、发生和发展过程等研究表明，地震活动的时间、空间和强度分布特征具有分形结构。作为一种分维理论的应用，本文利用厦门数字化地震遥测台网的数据，采用信息的分析方法，对福建省的地震多发区-漳州、华安、龙岩地区的地震活动进行了分析和研究，讨论了信息维随时间变化的特征。  相似文献   

介休井水位异常的调查与分析     

张淑亮  车用太  范雪芳  穆永龙  马朝晖 《地震研究》2002,25(4)

从井孔周围地下水开采量变化、大气降雨补给量变化、农田灌溉用水量变化、矿井塌方、涌水、排水和地震活动等影响因素入手 ,对 1999年至 2 0 0 0年间介休井水位的 2次突降原因进行了调查。通过初步分析 ,表明介休井水位阶降型异常具有一定的震兆性质 ,其水位的缓慢上升与突然阶降意味着介休地区断裂活动在加速。其地震预测的意义是未来一段时间山西地震带内有发生MS≥ 5 0级地震可能  相似文献   

Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times     

Max Wyss  Shozo Matsumura 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2002,131(2):173-184

We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, T_L, or equivalently maxima in local probability, P_L, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped T_L (P_L) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20 km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33 km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the T_L (P_L) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped T_L (P_L) separately for the top 15 km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting T_L- and P_L-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with M≥6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with T_L <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short T_L map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of T_L calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.  相似文献   

Sediment yield and storage variations in the Négron River catchment (south western Parisian Basin,France) during the Holocene period     

Jean‐Jacques Macaire  Saïda Bellemlih  Christian Di‐Giovanni  Patrick De Luca  Lionel Visset  Jacques Bernard 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2002,27(9):991-1009

In the Négron River catchment area (162 km²), surface‐sediment stores are composed of periglacial calcareous ‘grèze’ (5 × 10⁶ t) and loess (21 × 10⁶ t), and Holocene alluvium (12·6 × 10⁶ t), peat (0·6 × 10⁶ t) and colluvium (18·5 × 10⁶ t). Seventy‐five per cent of the Holocene sediments is stored along the thalwegs. Present net sediment yield, calculated from solid discharge at the Négron outlet, is low (0·6 t km^?2 a^?1) due to the dominance of carbonate rocks in the catchment. Mean sediment yield during the Holocene period is 7·0 t km^?2 a^?1 from alluvium stores and 7·6 t km^?2 a^?1 from colluvium stores. Thus, the gross sediment yield during the Holocene period is about 18·7 t km^?2 a^?1 and the sediment delivery ratio 3 per cent. The yield considerably varies from one sub‐basin to another (3·9 to 24·5 t km^?2 a^?1) according to lithology: about 25 per cent and 50 per cent of initial stores of periglacial grèze and loess respectively were reworked during the Holocene period. Sediment yield has increased by a factor of 6 in the last 1000 years, due to the development of agriculture. The very high rate of sediment storage on the slope during that period (88 per cent of the yield) can be accounted for by the formation of cultivation steps (‘rideaux’). It is predicted that the current destruction of these steps will result in a sediment wave reaching the valley floors in the coming decades. Subboreal and Subatlantic sediments and pollen assemblages in the Taligny marsh, where one‐third of the alluvium is stored, show the predominant influence of human activity during these periods in the Négron catchment. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Vegetation influences on water yields from grassland and shrubland ecosystems in the Chihuahuan Desert     

Mel Neave  Athol D. Abrahams 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2002,27(9):1011-1020

This study examines runoff generated under simulated rainfall on Summerford bajada in the Jornada Basin, New Mexico, USA. Forty‐five simulation experiments were conducted on 1 m² and 2 m² runoff plots on grassland, degraded grassland, shrub and intershrub environments located in grassland and shrubland communities. Average hydrographs generated for each environment show that runoff originates earlier on the vegetated plots than on the unvegetated plots. This early generation of runoff is attributed to soil infiltration rates being overwhelmed by the rapid concentration of water at the base of plants by stemflow. Hydrographs from the degraded grassland and intershrub plots rise continuously throughout the 30 min simulation events indicating that these plots do not achieve equilibrium runoff. This continuously rising form is attributed to the progressive development of raindrop‐induced surface seals. Most grassland and shrub plots level out after the initial early rise indicating equilibrium runoff is achieved. Some shrub plots, however, display a decline in discharge after the early rise. The delayed infiltration of water into macropores beneath shrubs with vegetation in their understories is proposed to explain this declining form. Water yields predicted at the community level indicate that the shrubland sheds 150 per cent more water for a given storm event than the grassland. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

1999年台湾7.6级大震与江苏-南黄海地区中强震预测   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

门可佩 《地球物理学进展》2002,17(1):121-126

分析讨论了台湾地区7级大震与本区中强震之间相关关系，指出1999年台湾7.6级大震后2－3年内，本区将有5－6级中强震发生。同时应用可公度模型和“带头地震”的异年倍九法联合对本区中强震发震时间进行分析预测。结论表明，该方法可以较好地应用于本区短临地震预报实践。  相似文献   

天津市地震经济损失模型和生命损失模型的预测研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

崔玉红  吴国有  聂永安  姚兰予  邱虎 《地震地质》2002,24(3):412-422

文中主要探讨了由地震引起的天津市经济损失和生命损失的预测问题。首先阐述了天津市震害预测的 5个背景特点 :建筑物特点、地质条件特点、建筑场地划分特点、基本设防烈度特点以及地震烈度衰减关系特点 ,根据这 5个特点将天津市划分为含有 7种建筑结构形式的 4个区域的震害预测模式。在此基础上 ,分析了天津市地震经济损失模型和生命损失模型 ,考虑了时间因素 ,然后与1976年唐山大地震的实际震害结果进行了对比及修正 ,给出了天津市 4个区域的建筑物地震经济损失率模型、社会财富损失率模型和建筑物毁坏率模型 ,并给出了计算天津市建筑物地震经济损失、天津市国内生产总值GDP地震经济损失和天津市地震生命损失的表达式 ;最后 ,将天津市地区划分为2 85 8个震害评估单元 ,以近百年来在天津市区域内曾经发生的最大地震作为假想地震 ,预测分析了天津市建筑物地震经济损失分布和地震生命损失分布结果  相似文献