Detection of changes in precipitation and runoff over eastern Canada and U.S. using a Bayesian approach     

L. Perreault  M. Haché  M. Slivitzky  B. Bobée 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1999,13(3):201-216

Inference about the existence and characteristics of changes in mean level of hydrometeorological sequences that may be generated by climatic variability is an important step before developing management rules in water resources systems. This paper presents a Bayesian approach, based on a single shifting model, which can be used to study a change in the mean level of a set of independent normal random variables. Two different problems are considered: the first is the detection of a change, while the second is the estimation of the change-point and its amplitude under the assumption that a change has occurred. This method is applied to precipitation and runoff data series over eastern Canada and U.S. during the twentieth century. The main results show an increase in the late sixties in the Eastern North American precipitation. This supports conclusions drawn from a number of studies which identified the late sixties to early seventies as a period of possible change.  相似文献   

高灵敏度磁力仪在寻找坠落飞机残骸中的应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

何敬礼 《物探与化探》1999,23(6):470-473

介绍利用高灵敏度磁力仪寻找深埋于地下的失事飞机发动机残骸的效果  相似文献   

污染分布的逼近及应用   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

杨元喜  柴洪洲  宋力杰 《测绘学报》1999,28(3):209-214

污染分布是抗差估计的基础。本文试图从观测值残差入手,首先逼近各观测值方差,进而由方差的变化逼近污染正态分布密度。逼近的基本思想是：将异常观测值的方差扩大。文中构造了方差膨胀函数。基于方差膨胀的污染正态分布,可由最小二乘估计获得模型参数的抗差估计解;并由方差传播定律及Ｂａｙｅｓ推断理论解算参数的验后方差－协方差及置信区间。文中给出了一个算例。  相似文献   

应用物探推断兰州金城关断裂及其倾角          下载免费PDF全文

王志林  李百祥 《甘肃地质》2006,15(1):72-75

据重力场特征分析,将地质划分的金城关—砂金坪断裂,推断分解为金城关断裂与雁滩南—柳沟店隐伏断裂,这是两条平行斜列展布的断裂。其中以密集重力梯级带反映金城关断裂特征最明显,进而利用重力水平一阶导数、二阶导数和垂直一阶导数求解断层接触带总体产状。结合区域应力场特征及盆山耦合动力学模式,推断断裂在深部是北倾的逆断裂,与地震波速场反映断裂产状吻合。  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯网络的“郑州暴雨地铁灾害事件”情景分析与仿真推演          下载免费PDF全文

任永存  张韧  张永生  孙涵  李明  刘泉宏  许婧 《大气科学学报》2023,46(6):904-916

2021年7月20日河南郑州特大暴雨造成的地铁突发灾害是近年来为数不多的城市重大人员伤亡事件。该事件产生既有暴雨强烈、事故突发等客观原因,也包含风险意识淡薄、应急机制不健全等主观因素。本文首先遴选“郑州暴雨地铁灾害事件”演化的主要情景要素,采用情景分析法构建了该事件情景演化流程。在此基础上,基于贝叶斯网络构建了“郑州暴雨地铁灾害事件”情景推演模型。采用专家打分法计算网络节点的条件概率,利用Netica软件推算出灾害情景节点状态概率。最后,通过调试特定节点先验概率,开展不同暴雨灾害等级、应急响应行动、周围环境状态情况下人员死亡和地铁受损害的概率评估与情景推演,旨在总结经验、查找漏洞,为应对和防范“郑州暴雨地铁灾害”类似事件提供风险防范和响应对策参考。  相似文献   

Appropriate temporal resolution of precipitation data for discharge modelling in pre-alpine catchments   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Anna E. Sikorska  Jan Seibert 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(1):1-16

Precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are desired for hydrological modelling and flood studies. Yet the choice of an appropriate resolution is not straightforward because the use of too high a temporal resolution increases the data requirements, computational costs and, presumably, associated uncertainty, while performance improvement may be indiscernible. In this study, the effect of averaging hourly precipitation on model performance and associated uncertainty is investigated using two data sources: station network precipitation (SNP) and radar-based precipitation (RBP). From these datasets, time series of different temporal resolutions were generated, and runoff was simulated for 13 pre-alpine catchments with a bucket-type model. Our results revealed that different temporal resolutions were required for an acceptable model performance depending on the catchment size and data source. These were 1–12 h for small (16–59 km²), 3-21 h for medium (60–200 km²), and 24 h for large (200–939 km²) catchments.  相似文献   

岩溶区砌体建筑环境振动特性分析     

周磊 《华南地震》2019,39(1):97-103

当前地震动速度时程时域特性分析方法,仅能分析岩溶区地震动速度时程的振动周期、强弱程度与时间变动的问题,但未能准确计算岩溶区砌体建筑物自振频率,导致砌体建筑环境振动特性分析结果存在误差。深入研究岩溶区砌体建筑环境振动特性分析方法,构建混凝土损伤塑性模型,分析岩溶区砌体建筑材料的屈服(受压)应力-非弹性应变关系、开裂(受拉)应力-非弹性应变关系和损伤因子;采用贝叶斯方法检测岩溶区砌体建筑受压受拉时的自振频率,通过L-M神经网络法消除自振频率后,使用振动特性分析方法准确分析岩溶区砌体建筑环境振动特性。实验结果表明,所提方法分析准确率高达0.99,分析16栋岩溶区砌体建筑环境振动特性耗时仅有5 ms,具有较高的分析精度和效率。  相似文献   

Bayesian analysis of individual and systematic multiplicative errors for estimating ages with stratigraphic constraints in optically stimulated luminescence dating     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2017

Many dating techniques include significant error terms which are not independent between samples to date. This is typically the case in Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating where the conversion from characteristic equivalent doses to the corresponding ages using the annual dosimetry data includes error terms that are common to all produced datings. Dealing with these errors is essential to estimate ages from a set of datings whose chronological ordering is known. In this work, we propose and we study a Bayesian model to address this problem. For this purpose, we first consider a multivariate model with multiplicative Gaussian errors in a Bayesian framework. This model relates a set of characteristic equivalent doses to the corresponding ages while taking into account for the systematic and non-systematic errors associated to the dosimetry. It thus offers the opportunity to deal properly with stratigraphic constraints within OSL datings, but also with other datings possessing errors which are independent from systematic errors of OSL (e.g. radiocarbon). Then, we use this model to extend an existing Bayesian model for the assessment of characteristic equivalent doses from Single Aliquot and Regenerative (SAR) dose measurements. The overall Bayesian model leads to the joint estimation of all the variables (which include all the dose–response functions and characteristic equivalent doses) of a sequence of, possibly heterogeneous, datings. We also consider a more generic solution consisting in using directly the age model from a set of characteristic equivalent dose estimates and their associated standard errors. We finally give an example of application on a set of five OSL datings with stratigraphic constraints and observe a good adequacy between the two approaches.  相似文献   

Sparse Bayesian linearized amplitude-versus-angle inversion     

Amir Mollajan  Hossein Memarian  Beatriz Quintal 《Geophysical Prospecting》2019,67(7):1745-1763

The technique of seismic amplitude-versus-angle inversion has been widely used to estimate lithology and fluid properties in seismic exploration. The amplitude-versus-angle inversion problem is intrinsically ill-posed and generally stabilized by the use of L2-norm regularization methods but with drawback of smoothing important boundaries between adjacent layers. In this study, we propose a sparse Bayesian linearized solution for amplitude-versus-angle inversion problem to preserve the sharp geological interfaces. In this regard, a priori constraint term with two regularization functions is presented: the sparse constraint regularization and the low-frequency model information. In addition, to obtain high-resolution reflectivity estimation, the model parameters decorrelation technique combined with dipole decomposition method is employed. We validate the applicability of the presented method by both synthetic and real seismic data from the Gulf of Mexico. The accuracy improvement of the presented method is also confirmed by comparing the results with the commonly used Bayesian linearized amplitude-versus-angle inversion.  相似文献   

Rock-glacier dams in High Asia     

Jan H. Blöthe  Swenja Rosenwinkel  Thorsten Höser  Oliver Korup 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(3):808-824

Rock glaciers in semiarid mountains contain large amounts of ice and might be important water stores aside from glaciers, lakes, and rivers. Yet whether and how rock glaciers interact with river channels in mountain valleys remains largely unresolved. We examine the potential for rock glaciers to block or disrupt river channels, using a new inventory of more than 2000 intact rock glaciers that we mapped from remotely sensed imagery in the Karakoram (KR), Tien Shan (TS), and Altai (ALT) mountains. We find that between 5% and 14% of the rock glaciers partly buried, blocked, diverted or constricted at least 95 km of mountain rivers in the entire study area. We use a Bayesian robust logistic regression with multiple topographic and climatic inputs to discern those rock glaciers disrupting mountain rivers from those with no obvious impacts. We identify elevation and potential incoming solar radiation (PISR), together with the size of feeder basins, as dominant predictors, so that lower-lying and larger rock glaciers from larger basins are more likely to disrupt river channels. Given that elevation and PISR are key inputs for modelling the regional distribution of mountain permafrost from the positions of rock-glacier toes, we infer that river-blocking rock glaciers may be diagnostic of non-equilibrated permafrost. Principal component analysis adds temperature evenness and wet-season precipitation to the controls that characterise rock glaciers impacting on rivers. Depending on the choice of predictors, the accuracy of our classification is moderate to good with median posterior area-under-the-curve values of 0.71–0.89. Clarifying whether rapidly advancing rock glaciers can physically impound rivers, or fortify existing dams instead, deserves future field investigation. We suspect that rock-glacier dams are conspicuous features that have a polygenetic history and encourage more research on the geomorphic coupling between permafrost lobes, river channels, and the sediment cascades of semiarid mountain belts. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献