Frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum flood series using the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions          下载免费PDF全文

Lei Yan  Lihua Xiong  Dedi Liu  Tiesong Hu  Chong‐Yu Xu 《水文研究》2017,31(1):69-89

The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimation of instantaneous peak flow from maximum mean daily flow by regionalization of catchment model parameters          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Ding  Uwe Haberlandt 《水文研究》2017,31(3):612-626

  相似文献   

Generation of continuous surface soil moisture dataset using combined optical and thermal infrared images          下载免费PDF全文

Pei Leng  Xiaoning Song  Si‐Bo Duan  Zhao‐Liang Li 《水文研究》2017,31(6):1398-1407

Surface soil moisture (SSM) is a critical variable for understanding water and energy flux between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. An easy to apply algorithm for deriving SSM time series that primarily uses temporal parameters derived from simulated and in situ datasets has recently been reported. This algorithm must be assessed for different biophysical and atmospheric conditions by using actual geostationary satellite images. In this study, two currently available coarse‐scale SSM datasets (microwave and reanalysis product) and aggregated in situ SSM measurements were implemented to calibrate the time‐invariable coefficients of the SSM retrieval algorithm for conditions in which conventional observations are rare. These coefficients were subsequently used to obtain SSM time series directly from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) images over the study area of a well‐organized soil moisture network named REMEDHUS in Spain. The results show a high degree of consistency between the estimated and actual SSM time series values when using the three SSM dataset‐calibrated time‐invariable coefficients to retrieve SSM, with coefficients of determination (R²) varying from 0.304 to 0.534 and root mean square errors ranging from 0.020 m³/m³ to 0.029 m³/m³. Further evaluation with different land use types results in acceptable debiased root mean square errors between 0.021 m³/m³ and 0.048 m³/m³ when comparing the estimated MSG pixel‐scale SSM with in situ measurements. These results indicate that the investigated method is practical for deriving time‐invariable coefficients when using publicly accessed coarse‐scale SSM datasets, which is beneficial for generating continuous SSM dataset at the MSG pixel scale.  相似文献   

Reevaluating suitability estimates based on dynamics of cropland expansion in the Brazilian Amazon     

《Global Environmental Change》2016

Agricultural suitability maps are a key input for land use zoning and projections of cropland expansion. Suitability assessments typically consider edaphic conditions, climate, crop characteristics, and sometimes incorporate accessibility to transportation and market infrastructure. However, correct weighting among these disparate factors is challenging, given rapid development of new crop varieties, irrigation, and road networks, as well as changing global demand for agricultural commodities. Here, we compared three independent assessments of cropland suitability to spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001–2012. We found that areas of recent cropland expansion identified using satellite data were generally designated as low to moderate suitability for rainfed crop production. Our analysis highlighted the abrupt nature of suitability boundaries, rather than smooth gradients of agricultural potential, with little additional cropland expansion beyond the extent of the flattest areas (0–2% slope). Satellite-based estimates of the interannual variability in the use of existing crop areas also provided an alternate means to assess suitability. On average, cropland areas in the Cerrado biome had higher utilization (84%) than croplands in the Amazon region of northern Mato Grosso (74%). Areas of more recent expansion had lower utilization than croplands established before 2002, providing empirical evidence for lower suitability or alternative management strategies (e.g., pasture–soya rotations) for lands undergoing more recent land use transitions. This unplanted reserve constitutes a large area of potentially available cropland (PAC) without further expansion, within the management limits imposed for pest management and fallow cycles. Using two key constraints on future cropland expansion, slope and restrictions on further deforestation of Amazon or Cerrado vegetation, we found little available flat land for further legal expansion of crop production in Mato Grosso. Dynamics of cropland expansion from more than a decade of satellite observations indicated narrow ranges of suitability criteria, restricting PAC under current policy conditions, and emphasizing the advantages of field-scale information to assess suitability and utilization.  相似文献   

Modelling the flow of self‐compacting concrete     

S. Kulasegaram  B. L. Karihaloo  A. Ghanbari 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(6):713-723

A Lagrangian particle‐based method, smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH), is used in this paper to model the flow of self‐compacting concretes (SCC) with or without short steel fibres. An incompressible SPH method is presented to simulate the flow of such non‐Newtonian fluids whose behaviour is described by a Bingham‐type model, in which the kink in the shear stress vs shear strain rate diagram is first appropriately smoothed out. The viscosity of the SCC is predicted from the measured viscosity of the paste using micromechanical models in which the second phase aggregates are treated as rigid spheres and the short steel fibres as slender rigid bodies. The basic equations solved in the SPH are the incompressible mass conservation and Navier–Stokes equations. The solution procedure uses prediction–correction fractional steps with the temporal velocity field integrated forward in time without enforcing incompressibility in the prediction step. The resulting temporal velocity field is then implicitly projected on to a divergence‐free space to satisfy incompressibility through a pressure Poisson equation derived from an approximate pressure projection. The results of the numerical simulation are benchmarked against actual slump tests carried out in the laboratory. The numerical results are in excellent agreement with test results, thus demonstrating the capability of SPH and a proper rheological model to predict SCC flow and mould‐filling behaviour. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2008年南海季风爆发前后西沙海域海气通量变化特征   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

孙启振  陈锦年  闫俊岳  张秀芝  黄磊  王长科  姚华栋  赵学华  陈长丘 《海洋学报》2010,32(4):12-23

基于2008年4至5月在南海西沙永兴岛进行的海气通量观测试验资料和NCEP资料,应用COARE3.0通量算法计算了海气通量,分析了季风爆发前后西沙海域天气变化特点和海气通量对南海季风爆发的响应。结果表明:2008年南海季风首先于5月第1候在南海南部爆发,受热带气旋等因素的影响,北部海区季风爆发推迟到5月18日。季风爆发和热带气旋活动对西沙海域的风速和海气通量影响较大,其中热带气旋的影响更强烈。热带气旋来临之前,潜热通量、感热通量以及动量通量均较小;在气旋活动及此后的季风爆发时期,大风使潜热通量和动量通量显著增强,感热通量则在降水期间变化明显;动量通量的最大值出现在热带气旋活动期间,其在此过程中的均值是观测初期均值的3倍以上。在整个观测过程中,潜热通量明显大于感热通量,后者是前者的16∶1。不同类型天气过程中,潜热通量的日变化相似,而感热通量的日变化有差异。湍流交换系数与风速有较好的相关关系。  相似文献   

基于NGM(1,1,k,c)模型和改进切线角的危岩变形预测     

刘富有  陈鹏宇  余宏明 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(6):8-10

针对危岩变形预测问题,本文以非齐次指数序列的灰色模型(NGM)作为危岩变形预测的基本模型,通过对望霞危岩变形的分析结果显示,NGM(1,1,k,c)模型拟合效果明显优于GM(1,1)模型,说明危岩变形趋势更接近于非齐次指数序列。利用NGM(1,1,k,c)模型结合改进切线角可对危岩变形趋势进行分析预测,可作为危岩稳定性和发展趋势的评估依据。  相似文献   

求解GM(1,1)模型新总体最小二乘算法     

陶武勇  鲁铁定  吴飞 《测绘科学技术学报》2016,(5):476-479

在GM(1,1)模型中系数矩阵和观测向量都是由原始序列组成的。系数矩阵中同样是有误差的,与观测向量中的误差一样,亦来源于原始序列,即它们误差同源。不同位置的相同元素应该有相同的改正数,采用传统总体最小二乘求解则不能达到此目的。针对这一缺陷,推导了一种新的总体最小二乘算法;并且通过算例验证了新方法的可行性和有效性。  相似文献   

广东大降坪硫(铅锌)矿床岩浆热液叠加作用——来自闪锌矿Rb-Sr年龄及硫同位素的证据   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

赵海杰  余长发  韩心巧  郑伟 《矿床地质》2016,35(4):795-808

广东大降坪硫(铅锌)矿床位于与岩浆作用有关的大绀山多金属矿田的中部,主矿体为赋存在震旦纪变质岩中的层状、透镜状黄铁矿矿体,最近在两个不同产状的黄铁矿矿体下部又新发现了脉状及层状铅锌矿体。文章通过对铅锌矿体的年龄及硫同位素研究,探讨其与主矿体的成因关系,获得了脉状铅锌矿体中闪锌矿的Rb-Sr等时线年龄为(88.5±3.9)Ma,即晚白垩世,与上部黄铁矿矿体的年龄(约630 Ma)相差较大,而与整个大绀山多金属矿田的成矿作用时限一致。三种不同产状的矿体硫同位素组成差异明显:层状黄铁矿矿体富集硫的轻同位素(δ34S=-10.90‰~-25.55‰),且与围岩的硫同位素范围一致,说明硫来自生物的细菌还原硫;透镜状黄铁矿矿体δ34S组成范围较宽(-9.38‰~22.69‰),具多源性硫的特征;铅锌矿体的δ34S在-7.1‰~6.4‰之间变化,硫可能来自深源岩浆,并受围岩成分混染。多方面的证据表明,大降坪黄铁矿矿体下部的铅锌矿体形成于晚白垩世的岩浆热液成矿作用,透镜状黄铁矿矿体受到岩浆热液的叠加。  相似文献   

利用LA-ICP-MS在16 μm和10 μm激光束斑条件下测定独居石U-Th-Pb年龄     

汪双双  韩延兵  李艳广  魏小燕  靳梦琪  程秀花 《岩矿测试》2016,35(4):349-357

我国锂钾主要矿产资源大多分布在西部偏远地区,其勘查找矿或综合利用迫切需要现场快速分析技术的支持。本文介绍了自行开发的便携式Li-K分析仪的主要性能及其在锂辉石中锂的分析应用。Li-K分析仪是一种基于大气压的液体阴极辉光放电光谱仪,以待测液体为放电阴极,实现样品中Li、K等元素的原子化和激发。该仪器以光纤传导CCD光谱仪作为检测器,其波长范围为345～1015 nm,分辨率3 nm;以Li 670.78 nm和K 769.90 nm分析谱线,在最佳仪器工作条件下测定Li、K的精密度（RSD,n=14）均低于2%,检出限为0.03 μg/mL,检测范围0.1～10 μg/mL。研究表明,不同酸度和酸的类型对谱线强度影响较大,且存在显著的样品基体效应,标准曲线法分析锂辉石中Li的结果偏差高达267%;而标准加入法可克服基体效应的影响,获得与ICP-OES一致性较好的分析结果,为现场开展固体样品中Li的测定奠定了基础。  相似文献