气候变化对藏东北牧业生产关键期的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杜军  马鹏飞  杜晓辉  袁雷 《冰川冻土》2015,37(5):1361-1371

利用藏东北10个气象站1961-2013年逐日平均气温资料,采用反距离权重插值法、线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析了牧草生长季(PGS)、牧草青草期(GGD)、牲畜抓膘期(FD)和牲畜掉膘期(FLD)等牧业生产关键期的时空变化,预估了未来50 a和100 a牧业生产关键期的变化.结果表明:近53 a PGS因结束日推迟而延长1.70 d·(10a)^-1,GGD平均每10 a延长1.53 d,牲畜抓膘开始期线性趋势不明显,结束期趋于推迟,FD平均每10 a延长1.84 d;牲畜掉膘开始日期显著推迟,结束日明显提前,FLD以-4.33 d·(10a)^-1的速度显著缩短.PGS的变化趋势与经度呈正相关,与海拔高度为负相关.PGS突变发生较早,出现在1998年;2005年是GGD明显变长的突变点,而FD和FLD的突变时间均发生在2003年.在10 a年际变化尺度上,近30 a PGS、GGD和FD呈逐年代增加趋势,而FLD趋于减少.如果气候按升温率0.044℃·a^-1变化,50 a后PGS、GGD和FD分别延长20.2、18.4和21.6 d,FLD缩短23.2 d;未来100 a PGS、GGD和FD可能分别延长40.3、36.9和43.2 d,FLD缩短46.5 d.这种变化趋势十分有利于藏东北牧草生产.  相似文献   

冰雪消融期松花江哈尔滨段干流水动力模拟及其时空分布特征分析     

王宏  刘硕  万鲁河  孙夕涵 《冰川冻土》2015,37(5):1275-1282

受春季冰雪消融的影响,我国北方地区的河流会形成桃花汛期,期间河流的水位、水深和流场较其它季节会发生较大变化,从而对流域水环境管理和水资源保护的利用产生影响.为科学地对松花江哈尔滨段在冰雪消融期水动力变化情况进行分析,利用ArcGIS 10.0对DEM影像进行矢量化,在Delft3D-RGFGRID中创建正交曲线网格,基于EFDC模型建立松花江哈尔滨市段二维河流数值水动力模型.模拟了2014年1月-10月间的整个河段不同时空条件下的水动力变化情况,根据哈尔滨市水文站2013年、2014年实测数据对模型的参数和模拟结果进行率定和验证,模拟水位与实测水位最大相差0.33 m,相对误差<10%,吻合度高.模拟结果表明:整个江段平均水位在桃花汛期可达116.38 m,丰水期进一步上升至116.54 m,枯水期为115.64 m,平水期为116.23 m.朱顺屯和阿什河口断面水深在丰水期都明显大于桃花汛期,呼兰河口和大顶子山断面两汛期的水深几乎持平,大顶子山断面水深在各时期都较浅,附近易发生冰塞.朱顺屯、阿什河口、呼兰河口大顶子山桃花汛期流速分别为0.55、0.61、0.43、0.57 m·s^-1;丰水期流速分别为0.59、0.66、0.47、0.63 m·s^-1,各断面桃花汛期的流速与丰水期流速相当,略小于丰水期,流向平稳无涡旋.该模型可以较好的模拟河道水力要素随时间及空间演变规律,以便在不同典型水文年进行水力模拟和预测,可为松花江冬春季通航管理、水资源配置、水质模拟、水质目标管理、水环境容量计算和污染物总量减排提供决策依据.  相似文献   

分散可溶有机质的气源意义     

薛海涛  田善思  卢双舫  刘敏  王伟明  王民 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2015,45(1):52-60

广泛分布在烃源岩及输导通道中的分散可溶有机质作为一种新的气源逐渐受到重视。分散可溶有机质成气不仅关系到原油的消耗, 还关系到天然气的资源评价结果, 因而定量评价这一过程对油气勘探有着重要意义。笔者总结对比了传统成烃模式与考虑分散可溶有机质成气模式的异同, 建立了分散可溶有机质成气的地质模型, 初步计算了塔里木盆地分散可溶有机质的成气量。指出分散可溶有机质这一气源使得地层成气区域突破了烃源岩的分布范围, 成气中心向构造高部位偏移, 成气期推迟。计算得到塔里木盆地分散可溶有机质成气模式中源内分散可溶有机质裂解成气与源外的比例为1:2.88, 在成气晚期白垩纪末至现今这一阶段油裂解成气量为799 千亿m³, 是传统油成气模式的4.23倍。  相似文献   

The hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake during the initial period of Three Gorges Project operation     

CHANG Jiang  LI Jingbao  LU Dianqing  ZHU Xiang  LU Chengzhi  ZHOU Yueyun  DENG Chuxiong 《地理学报》2010,20(5):771-786

Based on the measured hydrological data from 1951 to 2008, the chain hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake is analyzed by comparative method after the Three Gorges Project operation. The result indicates that 1) the scouring amount in Jingjiang River made up 78.9% of the total from Yichang to Chenglingji, and its average scouring intensity was higher than the latter; 2) the water and sand diversion rates at the three outlets of the Jingjiang River were reduced by 2.33% and 2.78% separately; 3) the proportion of multi-year average runoff and sediment through the three outlets in the total into the Dongting Lake decreased by 7.7% and 24.4% respectively; 4) in Dongting Lake, the speed of sediment accumulation was lowered by 26.7%, in flood season, the runoff amount was 20.2% less than the multi-year average value, leading to seasonal scarcity of water year by year. The former prolonged the lake life, while the latter induced droughts in summer and fall in successive years, shortage of drinking and industrial water, shipping insecurity, as well as ecological problems such as decrease of birds and quick increase of Microtus fortis; 5) The multi-year average values of sediment and flood transporting capacity at the lake outlet were respectively increased by 26.6% and 3.7%, the embankments were protected effectively. Then, to adapt to the new change of the river-lake relation, some suggestions were put forward, such as optimizing further operation program of the Three Gorges Reservoir, reexamining the idea of river and lake regulation, and maintaining connection of the river and the lake.  相似文献   

A preliminary study on seismic design criteria of offshore platforms in Bohai Sea of China     

Yanju Peng  Yuejun Lu  Jiaquan Yan  Rongyu Tang  Junqin Wang  Jiagang Li 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2010,9(2):223-231

This paper analyzes the seismicity in Bohai Sea,introducing a shape factor K to characterize the seismic risk distribution in sub-regions of the sea. Based on the seismic design ground motions for 46 platforms located in the Bohai Sea,a statistical analysis was performed for different peak ground acceleration (PGA) ratios at two different probability levels. In accordance with the two-stage design method,a scheme of two seismic design levels is proposed,and two seismic design objectives are established respectively for the strength level earthquake and the ductility level earthquake. By analogy with and comparison to the Chinese seismic design code for buildings,it is proposed that the probability level for the strength level earthquake and ductility level earthquake have a return period of 200 and 1000 - 2500 years,respectively. The validity of these proposed values is discussed. Finally,the PGAs corresponding to these two probability levels are calculated for different sub-regions of the Bohai Sea.  相似文献   

黑龙江漠河县洛古河含钼花岗岩体锆石U-Pb年龄及地质意义     

王宏博  刘桂香  邢彩霞 《地质与资源》2010,19(2):186-190

大兴安岭地区洛古河含钼花岗岩体的锆石U-Pb年龄为131±2 Ma,含钼花岗岩为二长花岗岩,属高钾钙碱性系列,ΣREE较低,Eu负异常明显,花岗岩低Sr高Yb,属早白垩世后碰撞花岗岩.其云英岩中白云母的⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar年龄为125.36±0.90 Ma.资料分析表明,130 Ma前后为大兴安岭地区重要的构造岩浆-成矿作用期.  相似文献   

东北地区冬季降雪的集中度和集中期变化特征   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

王冀  赵春雨  娄德君 《地理学报》2010,65(9):1069-1078

应用1961-2005 年东北地区冬季的台站降水资料,计算并分析了东北地区降雪集中度和集中期的时空变化特征和集中度偏高时的环流特征.结果表明,东北地区降雪集中度呈逐年上升趋势,集中期呈明显下降趋势。从年代际变化上来看,集中期存在着12 年的长周期,在1970 年代中期之后存在8 年左右的短周期。从空间变化的情况来看,东北地区冬季降雪集中度由东向西依次增加,吉林的东部地区出现集中度最低值,辽宁中部、吉林中部存在着集中期的高值中心。对于东北不同区域,东北东部和中部变化趋势一致,集中度呈上升趋势,集中期呈下降趋势。东北西南部和东北北部降水集中度均呈微弱的上升趋势,其中东北西南部地区降雪的集中度上升趋势最弱。东北北部降水集中期的下降趋势最弱。在影响东北降雪集中度偏高时,在高空500 hPa 东北地区均处于东亚大槽控制,东亚大槽在东北西部加深,而在东北东部有高压易于形成并加强,导致东亚大槽东移缓慢。高、低空急流均明显存在,与低空急流相比,高空急流更强,位置偏西南。在太平洋上水汽输送的高值区明显增强,范围也增大,东北地区受沿高值中心北侧向西北向输送的水汽影响。  相似文献   

乌鲁木齐市不同区域PM_(10)的监测与分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

马丽云  曹磊  李杨  刘新春 《干旱区地理》2010,33(2)

针对2007年5月~2008年3月乌鲁木齐市PM10(吸入颗粒物)冬、春季节的大气污染情况,应用乌鲁木齐市三个监测点的空气污染PM10监测资料,采用PM10国家《空气质量标准(GB3095-1996)》重量法数据处理方法,对乌鲁木齐市不同区域的空气污染PM10进行监测分析,结果表明:(1)在采暖期PM10浓度变化为天山区沙依巴克区(以下简称沙区)新市区,而在非采暖期天山区PM10浓度略高于新市区和沙区,三个采样点PM10浓度基本一致;(2)影响PM10的主要气象因素是降水,夏季降水对PM10粒子浓度清除影响较大,冬季微量降雪日,逆温、高湿对污染物聚集的加剧高于微雪的清除能力;(3)2001-2007年乌鲁木齐地区API(空气污染指数)趋于下降趋势,与PM10变化趋势一致,说明乌鲁木齐地区的环境污染有所改善。  相似文献   

The progress and prospects of nebkhas in arid areas     

Jianhui Du  Ping Yan  Yuxiang Dong 《地理学报(英文版)》2010,20(5):712-728

Nebkhas are often extensively distributed in arid and semi-arid areas, and play an important role in the stabilization of ecological environment in these areas. This paper reviews the following aspects, including formation and succession, spatial distribution, shape and surface airflow characteristics, balance between erosion and deposition, ecological and physiological characteristics of vegetation, response to precipitation and groundwater, soil properties as well as the protection measures. We found that nebkhas were studied without differentiation of succession periods, and shape characteristics, surface airflow, soil properties as well as vegetation dynamics in different succession periods were not fully understood, which made it difficult to explain the succession dynamics of nebkhas and its affecting factors. Previous studies of nebkhas were over-emphasized for its role as an indicator of land degradation, while its ecological functions in degraded ecosystems were neglected, which was unfavorable for the ecological restorations in arid and semi-arid areas. Future studies should pay more attention to the variation of vegetation, soil as well as hydrological process in the succession of nebkhas and its interaction between different influencing factors. In addition, positive role of nebkhas in degraded ecosystems in arid and semi-arid areas should be fully discussed. According to the data got from the above, effective protection measures of nebkhas should be explored.  相似文献   

近42 年来青藏高原年内降水时空不均匀性特征分析   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

杨玮  何金海  王盘兴  王传辉 《地理学报》2011,66(3):376-384

根据青藏高原1967-2008 年逐日站点降水资料,定义了高原降水集中度(PCD) 和集中期(PCP)。并运用EOF、相关分析等方法分析高原PCD和PCP的时空分布特征、PCD与高原强降水的关系以及PCP前期强影响信号。结果表明：高原大部分地区PCD处于0.4~0.8 之间,PCP则处于36~41 候之间。高原PCD以全区一致型的空间分布为主;而PCP 则以南北反向型分布为主,全区一致型分布次之。整个高原PCD均呈减弱趋势,而PCP均表现为提前特征。除高原南侧个别地区,高原PCD 无论与高原强降水日数还是强降水量均呈显著正相关。同时,高原南北部PCP对应的水汽输送存在显著差异, 高原南部PCP主要受孟加拉湾季风爆发的影响。  相似文献