1948—2001年全球大尺度区域 6～8月降水的长期变化     

黄先香  施能  顾骏强  高鸿 《地球科学进展》2004,19(5):824-830

研究了1948-2001年南、北半球及欧亚大陆、非洲大陆、澳洲大陆、北美大陆、南美大陆、南极大陆和中国 7个大尺度区域 6～8月降水的长期趋势变化和年代际变化。结果表明，南、北半球 6～8月的降水都为负趋势，但南半球降水的负趋势在统计上不显著。在54年的时间段内，南半球 6～8月降水的递减速度为 0．12 mm／a，仅为北半球同期降水减幅（0．24 mm／a）的一半。南、北半球 6～8月降水量年代际尺度的振荡都非常明显，但是，南、北半球年代际变化的特征明显不同。目前北半球仍是在少雨时间段，而南半球处在降水量正常或多雨的时间段。分析还表明，非洲大陆 6～ 8月降水的年代际特征最明显，降水的负趋势也最为显著；欧亚大陆 6～8月降水也有着明显的年代际变化与明显的负趋势变化；澳洲大陆 6～8月降水的年际变化明显，年代际变化相对来说要小得多；北美大陆 6～8月降水的年际变化明显，但无明显的趋势变化。此外，分析了大尺度区域 6～ 8月降水之间的相关关系，发现部分区域大尺度降水量之间有明显的联系；分析了中国夏季降水的长期变化，发现中国夏季降水的年代际变化明显，但无明显的趋势变化。  相似文献   

Steady, annual, and monthly recharge implied by deep unconfined aquifer flow     

David W. Ostendorf  Paula L. S. Rees  Shawn P. Kelley  Alan J. Lutenegger 《Journal of Hydrology》2004,290(3-4):259-274

We consider the response of a deep unconfined horizontal aquifer to steady, annual, and monthly recharge. A groundwater divide and a zero head reservoir constrain the aquifer, so that sinusoidal monthly and aperiodic annual recharge fluctuations create transient specific discharge near the reservoir and an unsteady water table elevation inland. One existing and two new long-term data sets from the Plymouth-Carver Aquifer in southeastern Massachusetts calibrate and confirm hydraulic properties in a set of analytical models. [Geohydrology and simulated groundwater flow, 1992] data and a new power law for tritiugenic helium to tritium ratios calibrate the steady recharge that drives the classical parabolic model of steady hydraulics [Applied Hydrogeology, 2001]. Observed water table and gradient fluctuations calibrate the transient recharge models. In the latter regard, monitoring wells within 1 km of Buttermilk Bay exhibit appreciable specific discharge and reduced water table fluctuations. We apply [Trans Am Geophys Union 32(1951)238] periodic model to the monthly hydraulics and a recharge convolution integral [J Hydrol 126(1991)315] to annual flow. An infiltration fraction of 0.79 and a consumptive use coefficient of 1.08×10⁻⁸ m/s °C relate recharge to precipitation and daylight weighted temperature across all three time scales. Errors associated with this recharge relation decrease with increasing time scale.  相似文献   

The possible connection between ionization in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and low level clouds     

E. Pall  C.J. Butler  K. O&#x;Brien 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2004,66(18):14003

Recent analysis of monthly mean cloud data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project uncovered a strong correlation between low cloud and the cosmic ray flux for extensive regions of the Earth. Additional data have been recently released covering the period up to September 2001 with which we have made a new study of the geographical variation of the correlation between low cloud and predicted ionization level from cosmic rays at an altitude of 2 km. When analysed globally, we find that the correlations do not correspond to the latitude variation of cosmic ray flux and they are not field significant. Nonetheless they appear to be marginally field significant over broad latitude and longitude bands with a peak positive correlation at 50 degrees North and South and a tendency to negative correlation at lower latitudes. The correlation is strongest over the North and South Atlantic. Several of these features are consistent with the predictions of the electroscavenging process.We use a simple model to calculate the climatic impact should the correlation be confirmed. We show that, under the most favorable conditions, a reduction in low cloud cover since the late 19th century, combined with the direct forcing by solar irradiance can explain a significant part of the global warming over the past century, but not all. However, this computation assumes that there is no feedback or changes in cloud at other levels.  相似文献   

2003年淮河流域大洪水的雨情、水情特征分析   总被引：17，自引：3，他引：17       下载免费PDF全文

毕宝贵矫梅燕  廖要明徐晶 《应用气象学报》2004,15(6):681-687

利用地面加密资料，分析了2003年淮河流域6~7月降水的时空分布和气候统计特征以及降水雨情、水情特征，并与历史同期进行了比较。结果表明:2003年淮河流域梅雨期经历了7次强降水过程，降水总量和洪水流量都超过1991年同期，但低于1954年梅雨期；2003年淮河流域降水的突出特点是:雨带稳定、暴雨集中和突发性强；水情特点是:洪峰逐次递减；造成淮河流域全线超警戒水位的重要原因是:2003年春季降水偏多、7月份副热带高压位置偏南以及淮河中游下段河床剖面倒比降。  相似文献   

相空间中划分大尺度异常雨型的初步研究   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5  

任宏利  高丽  张培群  李维京 《气象学报》2004,62(4):459-467

文中针对以往雨型研究中的不足 ,从动力学角度将相空间引入到大尺度异常雨型的划分 ,通过估计EOF相平面上的概率密度函数、并确定局部极大值区域来划分主要雨型。分析表明 ,新雨型不仅再现了传统的 3类雨型特征 ,还得到了其他分型 ,并且能够反映出异常降水分布的季节内低频变化 ;分别采用 10和 2 0d低通滤波数据划分的雨型形态比较接近 ,但其种类、持续性和季节内分布等特征存在一定差异 ;雨型的气候分布与季风雨带有一定对应关系 ,其形成与夏季风异常关系密切。通过对简单直观的二维相平面问题的探讨 ,不仅证实了在相空间中划分大尺度雨型的可行性 ,也为进一步在高维空间中讨论雨型问题提供了依据。  相似文献   

热带测雨卫星对淮河一次暴雨降水结构与闪电活动的研究   总被引：13，自引：8，他引：13  

郑媛媛  傅云飞  刘勇  朱红芳  姚秀萍  谢亦峰  宇如聪 《气象学报》2004,62(6):790-802

文中利用热带测雨卫星 (TRMM )搭载的测雨雷达 (PR)、闪电成像仪 (LIS)、GOES卫星红外通道辐射亮温(TBB)对 2 0 0 3年淮河汛期一锋面气旋系统的两个时次的探测结果 ,分析研究了降水结构及闪电活动 ,并与“98.7.2 0”武汉附近地区中尺度强降水的结构和闪电活动进行了比较。GOES的TBB、降水系统中的对流降水与层云降水比例、闪电活动频数随时间的变化均能表征锋面气旋系统的发展。TRMMPR探测结果表明 :冷锋降水狭窄细长 ,且均为强对流降水 (特别在冷锋加强时 ) ;暖锋宽广 ,且为大片层云降水 ,但其中存在面积不等的强对流降水云团 ;与“98.7.2 0”武汉附近地区中尺度强降水垂直结构的比较表明 ,锋面气旋降水的最大降水率出现在近地面 ,而中尺度强降水的最大降水率出现在低空 (3.0～ 3.5km) ,表明两者之间的降水微物理过程存在差别。TRMMLIS探测结果表明 :闪电活动均发生在冷锋的强对流降水云团中 ,暖锋中虽有强对流降水 ,但无闪电活动 ;闪电活动频数高所对应的降水廓线中、上部存在大量的冰相粒子。  相似文献   

南昌多普勒雷达与713-C雷达降水回波产品对比分析初探     

苏涵智  应冬梅  支树林  黄祖辉 《气象与减灾研究》2004,27(1):43-45

通过对比多普勒雷达和713-C雷达在同一时间、同一站点对降水回波的探测资料,找出它们在同类产品上的差异,对完成713-C雷达观测向多普勒雷达观测的过渡,用好多普勒雷达提供参考性意见。  相似文献   

航天GPS接收机设计   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨春宝  张海云  邱宗德  尤政 《全球定位系统》2004,29(3):19-25

航天GPS接收机为航天器提供航迹、姿态、时问和相对距离等导航信息，提高航天嚣运行的自主性。文中介绍了清华宇航中。航天GPS接收的硬件和软件设计，给出测试结果和分析。  相似文献   

Discrimination between climate and human-induced dryland degradation   总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21  

Jason Evans  Roland Geerken 《Journal of Arid Environments》2004,57(4):535

In this study we present a technique to discriminate between climate or human-induced dryland degradation, based on evaluations of AVHRR NDVI data and rainfall data. Since dryland areas typically have high inter-annual rainfall variations and rainfall has a dominant role in determining vegetation growth, minor biomass trends imposed by human influences are difficult to verify. By performing many linear regression calculations between different periods of accumulated precipitation and the annual NDVI_max, we identify the rainfall period that is best related to the NDVI_max and by this the proportion of biomass triggered by rainfall. Positive or negative deviations in biomass from this relationship, expressed in the residuals, are interpreted as human-induced. We discuss several approaches that use either a temporally fixed NDVI peaking time or an absolute one, a best mean rainfall period for the entire drylands or the best rainfall period for each individual pixel. Advantages and disadvantages of either approach or one of its combinations for discriminating between climate and human-induced degradation are discussed. Depending on the particular land-use either method has advantages. To locate areas with a high likelihood of human-induced degradation we therefore recommend combining results from each approach.  相似文献   

Contemporary kinematics of the southern Aegean and the Mediterranean Ridge   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Corné Kreemer  Nicolas Chamot-Rooke 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,157(3):1377-1392

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