Variability and trends in the annual snow‐cover cycle in Northern Hemisphere land areas, 1972–2000     

Dennis G. Dye 《水文研究》2002,16(15):3065-3077

This study investigated variability and trends in the annual snow‐cover cycle in regions covering high‐latitude and high‐elevation land areas in the Northern Hemisphere. The annual snow‐cover cycle was examined with respect to the week of the last‐observed snow cover in spring (WLS), the week of the first‐observed snow cover in autumn (WFS), and the duration of the snow‐free period (DSF). The analysis used a 29‐year time‐series (1972–2000) of weekly, visible‐band satellite observations of Northern Hemisphere snow cover from NOAA with corrections applied by D. Robinson of Rutgers University Climate Laboratory. Substantial interannual variability was observed in WLS, WFS and DSF (standard deviations of 0·8–1·1, 0·7–0·9 and 1·0–1·4 weeks, respectively), which is related directly to interannual variability in snow‐cover area in the regions and time periods of snow‐cover transition. Over the nearly three‐decade study period, WLS shifted earlier by 3–5 days/decade as determined by linear regression analysis. The observed shifts in the annual snow‐cover cycle underlie a significant trend toward a longer annual snow‐free period. The DSF increased by 5–6 days/decade over the study period, primarily as a result of earlier snow cover disappearance in spring. The observed trends are consistent with reported trends in the timing and length of the active growing season as determined from satellite observations of vegetation greenness and the atmospheric CO₂ record. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

甘肃黄土高原作物生长期土壤干旱及气候生产力特征分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

王毅荣  姚玉璧  张秀云 《成都信息工程学院学报》2004,19(4):558-563

分析了近40年甘肃黄土高原区域作物生长期土壤干旱和气候生产力特征,结果表明:(1) 土壤干旱和气候生产力在空间上表现为全区一致,区域内相关性很好.(2) 时间演变规律上,土壤干旱有加重的趋势、气候生产力呈下降的趋势.(3) 土壤干旱和气候生产力变化阶段性明显,年际变化具有3～5a的振荡,4a周期最为明显.  相似文献   

Chandler摆动周期和Q值对激发函数估计与比较的影响     

廖德春  廖新浩  周永宏 《中国科学院上海天文台年刊》2002,(1)

用 198 4～ 1999年期间的地极坐标序列和两个大气角动量序列 ,分析了不同Chandler周期和品质因子Q的取值对Chandler摆动观测激发的功率谱密度 ,以及观测激发与大气激发之间的相干系数和相干相位的影响。结果表明 ,不同Chandler周期和品质因子Q的取值对观测激发的功率谱密度 ,以及观测激发与大气激发之间的相干系数有很大影响。因此 ,在分析Chandler摆动的观测激发与地球物理激发的关系时 ,不能仅以观测激发与某个地球物理激发序列 (如大气激发 )的更好逼近来选择Chandler摆动的最佳周期 ,因为Chandler摆动是多种地球物理激发共同作用的结果  相似文献   

甘肃党河南山北坡早古生代火山岩时代探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

金治鹏  党牛牛  王崇礼 《地球科学与环境学报》2001,23(3):26-29

关于甘肃省肃北县党河南山北坡火山岩的时代,前人认为属早古生代奥陶纪,但通过对火山岩分布特征、地层接触关系、区域地层对比、岩性特征以及Rb-Sr同位素年龄(基性火山岩的年龄为(684.87±71)Ma,中性火山岩的年龄为(666.63±1.6)Ma)及侵入其中的花岗闪长岩的同位素年龄(510.85±14)Ma等资料的对比分析,认为该套火山岩的时代应为震旦纪而非奥陶纪.  相似文献   

Bivariate frequency analysis: discussion of some useful concepts in hydrological application     

Sheng Yue  Peter Rasmussen 《水文研究》2002,16(14):2881-2898

Basic concepts such as conditional probability distributions, conditional return periods, and joint return periods are important to understand and to interpret multivariate hydrological events such as floods and storms. However, these concepts are not well documented in the open literature. This paper assembles and clarifies these concepts, and illustrates their practical utility. Relationships between joint return periods and univariate return periods are also derived. These concepts and relationships are demonstrated by applying a bivariate extreme value distribution to represent the joint distribution of flood peak and volume from an actual basin. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A comparison of cumulus parameterization schemes in a numerical weather prediction model for a monsoon rainfall event     

Ernst Kerkhoven  Thian Yew Gan  Michiharu Shiiba  Gerhard Reuter  Kenji Tanaka 《水文研究》2006,20(9):1961-1978

In order to evaluate cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes for hydrological applications, the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research's fifth‐generation mesoscale model (MM5) was used to simulate a summer monsoon in east China. The performances of five CP schemes (Anthes–Kuo, Betts–Miller, Fritsch–Chappell, Kain–Fritsch, and Grell) were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate amount of rainfall during the heavy, moderate, and light phases of the event. The Grell scheme was found to be the most robust, performing well at all rainfall intensity and spatial scales. The Betts–Miller scheme also performed well, particularly at larger scales, but its assumptions may make it inapplicable to non‐tropical environments and at smaller scales. The Kain–Fritsch scheme was the best at simulating moderate rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to the Fritsch–Chappell scheme on which it was based. The Anthes–Kuo scheme was found to underpredict precipitation consistently at the mesoscale. Simulation performance was found to improve when schemes that included downdrafts were used in conjunction with schemes that did not include downdrafts. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

山东省春季马铃薯播种至出苗期水热特征分析          下载免费PDF全文

李建  苑文华  丁洁  慈航 《山东气象》2021,41(4):109-117

基于山东省1980—2020年117个气象台站的地面观测资料,依据春季马铃薯播期,通过积温法推算出苗期,分析山东省春季马铃薯播种至出苗期水分条件和热量条件的变化特征。结果表明：1980—2020年山东省春季马铃薯播种至出苗期平均日数为39.5 d,10 a倾向率为-1.8 d;降水量平均为16.5 mm,10 a倾向率为-3.1 mm;相对湿润度指数平均值为-0.48,10 a倾向率为-0.09;平均气温为8.9 ℃,10 a倾向率为0.6 ℃;温度适宜度平均为0.54,10 a倾向率为0.07。综上可知,山东省春季马铃薯播种至出苗阶段水分条件呈现减少的趋势,应增加田间灌水;热量条件呈现增加的趋势,有利于增加种植面积。  相似文献   

“Terrae motus factus est”: earthquakes in Switzerland before A.D. 1000. A critical approach     

Monika Gisler  Donat Fäh  Virgilio Masciadri 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(1):63-79

We focus on Swiss earthquakes in antiquity and the early medieval period before A.D. 1000. We have information on less than half a dozen earthquakes within this era, since written records for the first half of the first millennium A.D. are minimal, and there is little hope of finding more written evidence for earthquakes. Furthermore, interpreting the documents at hand is somewhat complex. For the 6th century Gregory of Tours in Historia Francorum gives hints of a rockslide near the castle Tauredunum (Le Grammont) in the Swiss canton Valais, an event that has been considered in the literature as caused by an earthquake. The Carolingian period (ca. 750–950) included the rise of some very important cultural centers in various parts of today’s Switzerland. For instance, the ecclesiastical culture in St. Gallen generated a remarkable number of written records, which survived for our use in a unique manner. From the 9th and 10th centuries, we have evidence for earthquakes in the years 849, 867, 902, and 944. However, information on them remains so scarce that their location and intensity are generally difficult to assess. Nevertheless, the finding of a new document - a memoir written by the abbot of Reichenau - offers some insight into the A.D. 849 event and its reportedly aftershocks.

Monika GislerEmail:

  相似文献   

基于我国实际工程场地的不同基本周期计算方法差异性研究          下载免费PDF全文

李明睿  李瑞山  袁晓铭  陈卓识 《世界地震工程》2022,38(4):036-43

场地基本周期是表征场地动力特性最基本的指标,也是评价场地条件的重要依据。本文介绍了计算场地基本周期的四种方法——子层周期求和法（规范法）、子层周期贡献系数法、简化Rayleigh法以及逐层单自由度法。收集并筛选了国内605组钻孔深度达到工程基岩的剪切波速剖面资料,其中:Ⅰ类场地10个;Ⅱ类场地300个;Ⅲ类场地249个;Ⅳ类场地46个。以传递函数法结果为标准,对上述四种方法的计算结果进行对比检验,就不同方法的偏差进行了深入分析,给出了其统计结果,并剖析了各方法应用于实际工程场地的适宜性。主要结论:（1）我国规范所采用的子层周期求和法虽然在工程中方便使用,但计算结果普遍存在显著偏差,其偏差的平均值大于20%,最大偏差甚至接近50%。（2）简化Rayleigh法和逐层单自由度法相较于规范法计算精度均有大幅提高,二者偏差在5%以内的工况数占比分别达到80%和70%以上。（3）子层周期贡献系数法采用了加权累加的计算方式,继承了规范法便于操作的优点,并且计算精度为本文所选四种方法中最高,其最大偏差不超过10%,偏差在5%以内的工况数占比达到85%,建议在实际工程中推广应用。  相似文献   

复合点坝侧积周期的成因分析:以密西西比河下游段为例^*          下载免费PDF全文

范洪军  王夏斌  胡光义  范廷恩  何明薇  陈飞 《古地理学报》2021,23(2):421-434

复合点坝侧积体定量成因分析是河流沉积学研究的难点之一。通过选取密西西比河下游段激光雷达数据,剖析复合点坝侧积体的内部特征,统计侧积体高程数据,发现其符合周期变化的特点。对高程数据进行傅里叶变换计算,得到复合点坝侧积周期,将侧积周期与河道规模进行拟合,两者符合线性关系,拟合度高。深入分析后,认为侧积周期受河流的季节性洪泛周期控制。研究结论为侧积体定量成因分析提供了理论依据。  相似文献