A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use          下载免费PDF全文

Mingwei Ma  Liliang Ren  Fei Yuan  Shanhu Jiang  Yi Liu  Hao Kong  Luyan Gong 《水文研究》2014,28(23):5645-5661

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于“灰箱”模型的海洋公共治理责任结构论证分析     

吕承文 《海洋通报》2018,(3):280-286

海洋公共治理是我国政府治理现代化体系建设的重要组成内容。作为适应新时期"海洋强国"战略实施的海洋公共治理被认作一种异于传统陆地政府治理的新型地公共治理活动,存在着自身一定的责任结构体系。收集了2012-2016年的六大类海洋责任案例(主要是海洋执法案例),以时间(t)、案例数量(q)、制度(I)、人(H)来构建"灰箱"模型,通过考察问责复发率(P)分析海洋公共责任(R)的问题及原因。研究结果表明:(1)我国海洋公共治理过程中应亟须重视"海洋政府"理念,问责事件也从样本数量上得到了体现;(2)海洋公共治理的目标应是防范于未然,确保责任事件的可预期化,推进政府治理能力现代化,应当基于法治的导向来重新塑造海洋政府的责任体系;(3)我国未来海洋公共治理的责任体系建构应通过立法的方式实现责任人和责任形式的可预期化,最终实现对海洋公共治理责任法治监督的应有之义。  相似文献   

基于无人机多源遥感数据海岛植被叶面积指数协同反演研究     

吴剑  陈鹏  傅世锋  陈庆辉  潘翔  宋志晓 《海洋技术学报》2019,38(6):1-8

无人机多源遥感数据的获取、融合以及应用是当今研究的热点和难点。文中以城洲岛为例,针对海岛特殊的地理生态环境,获取无人机多源遥感数据。结合无人机多光谱遥感数据定量分析各遥感植被指数与植被叶面积指数(Leaf Area Index, LAI)的响应关系,构建单因子遥感反演模型;基于无人机激光LiDAR点云提取海岛植被冠层高度模型(Canopy Height Model,CHM),并将其作为自变量引入到多源统计回归分析中,从而构建多源遥感数据协同反演模型,对区域尺度下海岛叶面积指数(LAI)进行估算,开展验证和精度评价。结果显示,加入植被冠层高度因子的协同反演模型的判定系数R2为0.92,绝对平均误差系数为12.29%,预测精度要优于单因子反演模型(判定次数R2为0.86,绝对平均误差系数19.95%)。研究表明,加入了植被冠层高度因子的协同反演模型能在一定程度上提高乔木植被LAI的预测精度。实践证明,无人机多源遥感技术在生态学定量研究中具有巨大的潜力和广阔的应用前景。  相似文献   

FBX三维模型自动转换为OBJ三维模型方法研究     

闻平  王冲  吴小东  桂林 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(1):113-115

本文研究实现了一种FBX三维模型自动转换为OBJ三维模型的方法,包括几何信息和材质信息的自动转换,所述方法包括获取数据、几何信息处理、材质信息处理、OBJ格式输出和材质库文件输出等步骤。  相似文献   

四川地形谱特征及中尺度模式水平网格分辨率选取   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

黄永杰  崔晓鹏 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2016,74(1):114-126

四川地形复杂多样,暴雨频发,常诱发山洪、泥石流等灾害。在利用中尺度模式对复杂地形区域的暴雨进行研究时,模式水平分辨率的选取缺乏定量依据。为了揭示四川地形的复杂特征和给中尺度模式水平网格分辨率的选取提供定量依据,利用二维离散余弦变换,对四川地形高度场和暴雨分布场进行谱分解,根据暴雨分布特征分区讨论了四川盆地地形特征,同时利用地形谱方差和数值试验定量讨论了数值模式水平分辨率的选取问题,得到主要结论有:(1)二维离散余弦变换能较好地表现出研究区域各向异性的复杂特征;(2)雅安地区和四川盆地西北部的地形谱与降水谱有较好的同相关系,盆地东北部和盆地中部的地形谱与降水谱在波长较大处出现反相关系;(3)针对某个区域的地形特征,可以通过计算模式能分辨的地形方差与总地形方差的比值来确定合适的中尺度模式水平网格分辨率。  相似文献   

基于改进综合气象干旱指数的2011年和2013年长江中下游干旱低频振荡特征分析     

林家尧  王文  蔡晓军 《气象科学》2016,36(6):810-818

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和地面观测资料,基于改进的综合气象干旱指数（I_C）对长江中下游地区2011年春季和2013年夏季干旱过程的低频振荡特征进行了分析。结果表明：2011年春季干旱过程的主要低频I_C周期为30~60 d,西太平洋500 hPa正异常低频高度场系统的西移、南支锋区上游500 hPa正异常低频高度场系统的东移和北扩、西北地区东部低层低频反气旋的向南移动可能是低频I_C传播变化特征的重要原因。2013年夏季干旱过程的主要低频I_C周期也为30~60 d,西亚和西北太平洋500 hPa正异常低频高度场向我国南方地区移动、孟加拉湾和西北太平洋的低层低频反气旋向西和向北移动与低频I_C传播变化特征有重要联系。  相似文献   

1991年5-7月江淮洪涝:水汽和冷空气的作用比较     

姜颖  陆尔 《气象科学》2016,36(3):382-388

对1991年5-7月江淮流域持续性暴雨的环流异常进行分析,比较造成此次洪涝的水汽输送和冷空气活动重要性。结果表明：（1）东亚大槽维持在中国东北上空发展明显,同时鄂霍次克海上空没有建立强大阻高,这种形势有利于冷空气持续向南侵袭,盛行经向环流。此外,低纬度地区,西太平洋副热带高压主体位置于常年同期相比,明显偏西、偏强,有利于暖湿气流沿副热带高压北上到达江淮流域,与北方冷空气辐合形成强降水。（2）通过定义I_T和I_q分别表征温度与水汽对降水的贡献,发现此次江淮流域地区强降水是由对流层低层水汽异常增多和气温异常偏低共同造成的,作用基本相当。  相似文献   

一种天绘一号卫星影像精确定位方法     

周欣  王海岩  杨国鹏 《测绘科学》2016,41(11):5-9,129

针对如何最大程度地减小天绘一号卫星RPC模型系统误差,真实反映像方坐标与物方坐标关系的问题,该文介绍了天绘一号卫星的基本情况及相应的RPC参数模型,给出了求解RPC参数的基本方法和流程。结合天绘一号卫星采用等效框幅式光束法平差进行无控定位的特点,利用平差后计算得到的加密点坐标,提出了一种基于像点仿射变换的RPC模型区域网平差方法,并进行了RPC参数修正。经天绘一号卫星精度检测实验表明,修正后的RPC参数能有效地弥补系统性误差,具有更高的定位精度。  相似文献   

Axial friction response of full-scale pipes in soft clays     

《Applied Ocean Research》2016

The axial friction response of subsea pipelines in soft clays is a very important aspect for designers of subsea pipelines but the response is not well understood so far. There is a pressing need for the comprehension of the response. In this paper, model tests are performed using full-scale pipes coated with polyethylene (PE) to study the effects of the set-up period, the pipe diameter, the buried depth of the pipe, the shear strength of soft clays and the loading rate on the axial friction response of pipelines in soft clays. The variations of the axial friction coefficient are analyzed using the effective stress method based on model test results. The results show that the axial friction resistance increases with the increasing pipe diameter but the effect of the pipe diameter on the axial friction coefficient can be neglected. The ultimate axial resistance also increases with the increase of the buried depth of pipelines, the undrained shear strength of soft clays and the loading rate. The axial friction coefficient increases with the increasing loading rate. However, the axial friction coefficient decreases with the increasing buried depth. The method to determine the axial friction coefficient is developed by analyzing model test results, which considers the effects of the diameter, the buried depth, the undrained shear strength of soft clays and the loading rate. The study results not only extend the industry data base but also supply a basis to determine the axial friction coefficient of PE-coated pipes in soft clays for ocean engineering geological investigations.  相似文献   

Large scale three-dimensional seepage analysis model test and numerical simulation research on undersea tunnel     

《Applied Ocean Research》2016

During the construction process of Qingdao Jiaozhou Bay Undersea Tunnel, the faults and other unfavorable geological discontinuities were often encountered. To study the water inrush mechanism in the faults, both physical model test and numerical analysis were carried out. The results of crown displacement and hydraulic pressure of the monitoring sections in the physical model and numerical model were analyzed in this paper. It was found that the displacement and hydraulic pressure in the process of tunnel construction are often interacted as both cause and effect, and the lower of hydraulic pressure is often accompanied with the growth of its displacement. The changing of the excavation disturbed zone during the excavation in the undersea tunnel was also studied. The results show that the excavation disturbed zone in fault is larger than that in surrounding rock mass, and the excavation disturbance effects in the filling type fault are both transient and persistent. When the displacement and hydraulic pressure in the undersea tunnel change sharply during excavation, there are relatively slow and continuous change trend of the displacement and hydraulic pressure. For practical purposes, to prevent water inrush in the undersea tunnel, more attentions should also be paid to the undersea tunnel after excavation.  相似文献