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991.
In this paper, an explosive cyclone (EC) that occurred over Northeast China in the spring of 2016 is studied by using 6.7 μm FY satellite water vapor (WV) imagery and NCEP (1°×1°) reanalysis data. Moreover, the evolutions of the upper-level jet stream (ULJ), the vertical motions, and the potential vorticity (PV) are analyzed in detail. Results show that different shapes of the WV image dark zones could reflect different stages of the EC. At the pre-explosion stage, a small dark zone and an S-shaped baroclinic leaf cloud can be found on the WV imagery. Then the dark zone expands and the leaf cloud grows into a comma-shaped cloud at the explosively developing stage. At the post-explosion stage, the dark zone brightens, and the spiral cloud forms. The whole process can be well described by the WV imagery. The dynamic dry band associated with the sinking motion and the ULJ can develop into the dry intrusion later, which is an important signal in forecasting the EC and should be paid attention to when analyzing the WV imagery. Furthermore, the mechanism is also analyzed in detail in this article. EC usually occurs in the left-exit region of the 200-hPa jet and the region ahead of the 500-hPa trough where there is significant positive vorticity advection (PVA). When the EC moves onto the sea surface, the decreased friction would favour the development of the EC. The upper-level PVA, the strong convergence at low level, and the divergence at high levels can maintain the strong updraft. Meanwhile, the high PV zone from the upper levels extends downward, approaching the cyclone. Together, they keep the cyclone deepening continuously. 相似文献
992.
Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity remains a challenge due to the complex physical processes involved in TC intensity changes. A seven-day TC intensity prediction scheme based on the logistic growth equation (LGE) for the western North Pacific (WNP) has been developed using the observed and reanalysis data. In the LGE, TC intensity change is determined by a growth term and a decay term. These two terms are comprised of four free parameters which include a time-dependent growth rate, a maximum potential intensity (MPI), and two constants. Using 33 years of training samples, optimal predictors are selected first, and then the two constants are determined based on the least square method, forcing the regressed growth rate from the optimal predictors to be as close to the observed as possible. The estimation of the growth rate is further refined based on a step-wise regression (SWR) method and a machine learning (ML) method for the period 1982?2014. Using the LGE-based scheme, a total of 80 TCs during 2015?17 are used to make independent forecasts. Results show that the root mean square errors of the LGE-based scheme are much smaller than those of the official intensity forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), especially for TCs in the coastal regions of East Asia. Moreover, the scheme based on ML demonstrates better forecast skill than that based on SWR. The new prediction scheme offers strong potential for both improving the forecasts for rapid intensification and weakening of TCs as well as for extending the 5-day forecasts currently issued by the CMA to 7-day forecasts. 相似文献
993.
为提升GRAPES_TYM对西北太平洋和中国南海热带气旋路径及强度的预报能力、增加对北印度洋热带气旋的预报,2019年8月GRAPES_TYM 3.0版投入业务运行。GRAPES_TYM 3.0版的模式垂直分层由GRAPES_TYM 2.2版的50层增加到68层;预报区域由覆盖西北太平洋、中国南海扩展到覆盖北印度洋。试验结果显示:模式垂直分层增加可以改进模式对强台风及超强台风的预报能力,减小平均路径预报误差、显著减小平均强度预报误差以及强度预报负偏差;模式预报区域扩大到覆盖北印度洋对平均路径误差和平均强度误差影响不显著,但长时效预报比较敏感,如20°N以北热带气旋120 h预报路径。2016—2018年的回算结果与NCEP-GFS和ECMWF的预报结果对比分析表明:GRAPES_TYM 3.0版的平均路径误差与NCEP-GFS接近,同ECMWF相比误差较大;但24—96 h强度预报误差明显小于NCEP-GFS和ECMWF,NCEP-GFS和ECMWF对热带气旋强度预报存在明显的负偏差。综上所述,模式垂直分层由50层增加到68层对热带气旋强度预报至关重要,而长时效路径预报对模式预报区域扩大到覆盖北印度洋更为敏感。 相似文献
994.
利用中央气象台台风实时业务定位资料和地面气象观测资料对2020年西北太平洋和南海的台风活动主要特征以及主要影响我国的台风路径、强度及风雨情况进行了统计分析。2020年西北太平洋和南海共有23个台风生成,较多年平均值（27.0个）偏少4.0个;有5个台风登陆我国,较多年平均值（7.0个）偏少2.0个。2020年台风活动的主要特征有：台风生成源地明显偏西;生成总数偏少,极值强度偏弱;7月“空台”,是1949年以来历史首次;8月台风活跃,出现多个近海快速增强的台风;8月下旬至9月上旬,3个台风连续北上影响我国东北地区,历史罕见;10月生成的台风个数较常年偏多,先后影响我国南海或中南半岛。 相似文献
995.
Previous studies concerning the interaction of dual vortices have been made generally in the deterministic framework. In this paper, by using an advection equation model, eight numerical experiments whose integration times are 30 h are performed in order to analyze the interaction of dual vortices and the vortex self-organization in a coexisting system of deterministic and stochastic components. The stochastic components are introduced into the model by the way that the Iwayama scheme is used to produce the randomly distributed small-scale vortices which are then added into the initial field. The different intensity of the small-scale vortices is described by parameter K being 0.0, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0, respectively. When there is no small-scale vortex （K=0.0）, two initially separated meso-beta vortices rotate counterclockwise mutually, and their quasi-final flow pattern is still two separated vortices; after initially incorporating small-scale vortices （K=0.8, 1.0）, the two separated meso-beta vortices of initially same intensity gradually evolve into a major and a secondary vortex in time integration. The major vortex pulls the secondary one, which gradually evolves into the spiral band of the major vortex. The quasi-final flow pattern is a self-organized vortex with typhoon-like circulation, and the relative vorticity at its center increases with increasing in K value, suggesting that small-scale vortices feed the self-organized vortex with vorticity. This may be a possible mechanism responsible for changes in the strength of the self-organized vortex. Results also show that the quasi-final pattern not only relates with the initial intensity of the small-scale vortices, but also with their initial distribution. In addition, three experiments are also performed in the case of various boundary conditions. Firstly, the periodic condition is used on the E-W boundary, but the fixed condition on the S-N boundary; secondly, the fixed condition is set on all the boundaries; and thirdly, the periodic conditio 相似文献
996.
Using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) optimal typhoon tracks data and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis,an investigation is made on the summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) in relation to synchronous air circulation from the coastal waters of East Asia to western North Pacific (WNP),along with a further exploration on the relationship between the APO and the tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the coastal waters of China.The results show that there exists a strong correlation between the APO intensity an... 相似文献
997.
998.
基于云南省内11处跨断层场地资料,结合跨断层数据分析方法,系统提取云南地区地震综合预测指标,并对其在漾濞6.4级地震前的映震能力进行分析。结果表明,跨断层资料在漾濞地震发生前存在显著的中期异常,且漾濞地震的发生可能与川滇菱形块体西边界的活动增强有关。跨断层中期指标对漾濞地震作出较好的预测,短期指标虽然也通过了效能评估,但预报效能稍差。在后续的跨断层资料分析中,应更加注重中期异常及中期预测指标的提取和应用,总结得到的综合指标可应用于云南地区的震情跟踪工作。 相似文献
999.
1000.