Application of Sensitivity Analysis Using an Adjoint Model for Short-Range Forecasts of the Kuroshio Path South of Japan     

Yoichi Ishikawa  Toshiyuki Awaji  Nobumasa Komori  Takahiro Toyoda 《Journal of Oceanography》2004,60(2):293-301

A sensitivity experiment has been performed by assimilating altimetric data into a 1.5-layer primitive equation model as a first attempt to examine the impact of initialization on forecasts of the Kuroshio path variability south of Japan. By exploiting the advantage of an adjoint model, our approach clearly shows that a small meander off Shikoku Island has a large impact on the prediction of meander growth in the Kuroshio region. Further, the strengthening of the Kuroshio current and its recirculation clearly becomes an important factor in the development of the meander. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our assimilation approach in identifying efficient initialization schemes on numerical forecasting of the Kuroshio south of Japan and should help in the construction of an effective observing system for improving the forecasting. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

土壤湿度和土壤温度模拟中的参数敏感性分析和优化   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

李得勤  段云霞  张述文  文小航 《大气科学》2015,39(5):991-1010

使用一种复杂洗牌算法 (SCE-UA, Shuffled Complex Evolution Algorithm) 对Noah陆面模式中的参数进行敏感性分析和优化,其中水文参数采取直接优化和优化土壤成份的形式,侧重于研究两种水文参数给出方法对土壤湿度和土壤温度模拟的敏感性。结果表明:将土壤湿度和土壤温度作为判据,模式中水文参数敏感性最高,水文参数对土壤湿度的敏感性要高于对土壤温度的敏感性。表层土壤湿度作为判据对土壤水文参数优化后,可以改善土壤湿度和土壤温度的模拟,加入深层土壤湿度同时作为判据后,优化使土壤温度的模拟变差。当土壤成份作为优化的参数,表层和深层土壤湿度作为判据,优化能够同时改善土壤湿度和土壤温度的模拟。单独使用土壤温度作为判据不能达到优化水文参数的目的。将土壤成份作为优化的参数后,土壤湿度和土壤温度的多判据优化效果最好,且减少不敏感参数的个数后对优化结果的影响总体不大。基于以上结果,将土壤成份作为优化水文参数的方法能够更好的考虑不同水文参数之间的约束关系,优化后的水文参数具有很好的一致性,优化效果较直接优化水文参数更好。  相似文献   

土壤湿度初始异常对东亚区域气候模拟影响的敏感性试验   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

史一丛  陈海山  高楚杰 《气象科学》2015,35(4):379-388

利用耦合了CLM3.5陆面模式的区域气候模式RegCM4.0,通过敏感性试验,探讨了人为减小春季初始土壤体积水含量对短期时间尺度东亚夏季气候模拟的可能影响。结果表明:较低的初始土壤湿度场能够明显改变区域的地表能量平衡,引起地表净长波辐射和感热通量的显著增加,进而加强了地表对大气的加热,因而引起东亚大范围地区特别是中国东部、印度北部和中亚地区地表温度、气温的升高。与气温不同,初始土壤湿度场对降水的影响很小而且有较大的不确定性,同时偏暖的下垫面使得对流层中高层出现暖高压异常,但这些影响均不显著。综合来看,土壤湿度初始场的初始异常,对RegCM4.0 模式东亚气候模拟的结果有一定影响,特别是在地表温度、气温和能量平衡方面,应在以后的模拟中加以考虑。  相似文献   

射电日像仪灵敏度测量     

陈林杰  王威  颜毅华  耿立红  陈志军 《天文研究与技术》2015,(3)

灵敏度是射电望远镜的一个重要性能指标,它反映了望远镜监测弱信号的能力。基于明安图射电频谱日像仪(Mingantu Ultrawide Spectral Radioheliograph,MUSER)的调试观测,给出了日像仪灵敏度的测量方法,对天线系统以及整个阵列的灵敏度进行测量分析,得到了日像仪系统整体的灵敏度性能参数。测量同时给出了天线系统的效率以及接收机系统的增益,这将为下一步日像仪展开常规的科学观测提供参考。  相似文献   

Key reactions in the photochemistry of hydrocarbons in Neptune's stratosphere     

M. Dobrijevic  T. Cavalié  F. Billebaud  F. Hersant  F. Selsis 《Planetary and Space Science》2010,58(12):1555-1566

We studied the propagation of uncertainties carried by the reaction rate coefficients in the photochemistry of Neptune's stratosphere. We showed that the uncertainties on the mole fractions of main hydrocarbons are equal to or larger than the estimated uncertainties on abundances gathered from observations. From a global sensitivity analysis study, we determined a list of 26 key reactions and discussed the 7 main key reactions that should be studied in priority to lower the uncertainties in the mole fractions computed from a photochemical model. This methodology is essential to improve the predictivity of photochemical models and, consequently, to better understand the physical and chemical processes that govern the composition of giant planet atmospheres.  相似文献   

Evaluation of probabilistic flow in two unsaturated soils     

Samuel Boateng 《Hydrogeology Journal》2001,9(6):543-554

A variably saturated flow model is coupled to a first-order reliability algorithm to simulate unsaturated flow in two soils. The unsaturated soil properties are considered as uncertain variables with means, standard deviations, and marginal probability distributions. Thus, each simulation constitutes an unsaturated probability flow event. Sensitivities of the uncertain variables are estimated for each event. The unsaturated hydraulic properties of a fine-textured soil and a coarse-textured soil are used. The properties are based on the van Genuchten model. The flow domain has a recharge surface, a seepage boundary along the bottom, and a no-flow boundary along the sides. The uncertain variables are saturated water content, residual water content, van Genuchten model parameters alpha (α) and n, and saturated hydraulic conductivity. The objective is to evaluate the significance of each uncertain variable to the probabilistic flow. Under wet conditions, saturated water content and residual water content are the most significant uncertain variables in the sand. For dry conditions in the sand, however, the van Genuchten model parameters α and n are the most significant. Model parameter n and saturated hydraulic conductivity are the most significant for the wet clay loam. Saturated water content is most significant for the dry clay loam. Electronic Publication  相似文献   

Input sensitivity study of a stratospheric photochemistry model     

Dixon M. Butler 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1978,117(3):430-435

A general technique for calculating the sensitivities, uncertainties and overall imprecision of a model to a set of input parameters is described and applied to the calculation of CFM induced stratospheric ozone depletion. The input data set used is reaction rates and the technique highlights those that most need further study in the laboratory. The convolution of individual uncertainties to obtain an overall imprecision gives good agreement with the results of Monte-Carlo calculations using the same model.A paper presented at the IAGA/IAMAP Joint Assembly at Seattle, Washington, USA. 22 August–3 September 1977.  相似文献   

Combination of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for sediment transport modeling in sewer pipes     

《国际泥沙研究》2020,35(2):157-170

Mitigation of sediment deposition in lined open channels is an essential issue in hydraulic engineering practice.Hence,the limiting velocity should be determined to keep the channel bottom clean from sediment deposits.Recently,sediment transport modeling using various artificial intelligence(AI) techniques has attracted the interest of many researchers.The current integrated study highlights unique insight for modeling of sediment transport in sewer and urban drainage systems.A novel methodology based on the combination of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses with a machine learning technique is proposed as a tool for selection of the best input combination for modeling process at non-deposition conditions of sediment transport.Utilizing one to seven dimensionless parameters,127 models are developed in the current study.In order to evaluate the different parameter co mbinations and select the training and te sting data,four strategies are considered.Considering the densimetric Froude number(Fr) as the dependent parameter,a model with independent parameters of volumetric sediment concentration(C_V) and relative particle size(d/R) gave the best results with a mean absolute relative error(MARE) of 0.1 and a root means square error(RMSE) of 0.67.Uncertainty analysis is applied with a machine learning technique to investigate the credibility of the proposed methods.The percentage of the observed sample data bracketed by95% predicted uncertainty bound(95 PPU) is computed to assess the uncertainty of the best models.  相似文献   

Specific vulnerability assessment using the<Emphasis Type="Italic"> MLPI</Emphasis> model in Datong city,Shanxi province,China     

Huaming?GuoEmail author  Yanxin?Wang 《Environmental Geology》2004,45(3):401-407

This study outlines an improved method, MLPI (modified leaching potential index) model, for delineating and mapping groundwater vulnerability and assessing groundwater vulnerability to contaminants, including degradable contaminants, radioactive elements and nondegradable pollutants. The primary objective is to produce specific sensitivity maps at city or county scale that can be used for recognition of aquifer sensitivity and for protection of groundwater quality. Groundwater vulnerability assessment using the MLPI method is applied to Datong city, Shanxi Province, with the following conclusions: (1) specific vulnerability was differentiated and ; (2) groundwater vulnerability is of temporal variation.  相似文献   

长波辐射对大气变化的敏感性和在WRF模式中的应用检验   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8  

沈元芳  黄丽萍  徐国强  薛纪善 《气象学报》2004,62(2):213-227

用RRTM长波辐射 (LWR)参数化方案测试了LWR对大气变化的敏感性。结果表明 :高云对向外长波辐射(OLR)、30 0和 5 0 0hPa净LWR通量的减弱作用较中、低云大 ;低云对 85 0hPa和地表净LWR通量的减弱作用较中、高云大。在云层中 ,LWR冷却率受云影响最大 ;在云层下方 ,云对LWR的影响迅速减小 ;而在云层上方 ,冷却率几乎不受云的影响。当水汽含量减少或增加时 ,地表向下LWR受到相应减弱或增强 ,而净LWR则在一定程度上受到相应增强或减弱 ,并且越接近地面 ,受到水汽变化的影响就越大。O3 对LWR的影响相对云和水汽来说是比较小的。文中介绍了在WRF模式中应用RRTM方案预报LWR不同季节的 2个个例 ,给出了应用NCEP/AVN分析资料预报和验证中国范围 2d之内LWR通量的模拟结果。试验表明 ,OLR和 5 0 0hPa净LWR通量与高度形势场有较好的对应关系 ,而地表净LWR很大程度上还受到地形的影响。  相似文献