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11.
A theoretical model for wind‐sand flow is developed by considering the coupling between wind flow and sand particle motion, the latter subject to the Magnus effect, under different atmospheric stability conditions. Using this model, the characteristics of the wind‐sand flow are discussed in detail. The results show that the atmospheric stability and the Magnus effect both have a strong influence on wind profiles and on the trajectories of sand particles. This approach produces results with characteristics that differ from those previously reported; the latter only applying to atmospheric conditions of neutral stability. The saltating sand reaches a greater height under non‐neutral stability than under neutral stability, while the maximum horizontal distance is greater under unstable conditions and is smaller under stable conditions than under conditions of neutral stability. 相似文献
12.
David P. Bacon Nash’at N. Ahmad Thomas J. Dunn Michael C. Monteith Ananthakrishna Sarma 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(3):317-327
By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging
of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the
roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3)
have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either
the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of
hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect
and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational
picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric
simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies
with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the
geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system
and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number
of different situations. 相似文献
13.
中国滑坡预测预报研究综述 总被引:14,自引:1,他引:13
滑坡预测预报是有效预防滑坡灾害的重要途径之一,这方面的研究不仅受到广泛重视,且硕果累累。将中国滑坡预测预报的研究历史划分为四个阶段:① 经验判断——被动防灾避灾阶段;② 定性——半定量分析预测预报阶段;③ 理论方法探索——检验预测预报阶段;④ 理论方法深化——综合应用预测预报阶段。从监测(观测)方法、预测预报方法,以及研究特点等方面进行简要回顾,总结已有监测方法(手段)、预测预报理论、方法的研究现状,认为尚存在:① 监测方法(手段),包括仪器、设备的精度不足;② 预测预报方法综合性、实用性不强;③ 预测预报专门理论尚待完善等问题。在分析的基础上,提出自己的观点,并进行了发展趋势展望。 相似文献
14.
S. T. G. Raghukanth 《Natural Hazards》2008,46(1):1-13
In this article, analytical methods have been used to estimate ground motion during the 8 October 2005, Kashmir earthquake.
Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at several stations in the epicentral region have been estimated by empirical analytical
source mechanism models. As an alternate analysis, PGA estimates have also been obtained using the stochastic finite fault
seismological model. The estimated PGAs are compared with that obtained from damage values. A PGA contour map in the near-source
region is provided. It is found that very near to the epicenter, PGA would have reached more than 1 g. It is demonstrated
that empirical analytical models can be effectively used to estimate ground motion due to rupture of active faults. 相似文献
15.
16.
基于AGA的SVM需水预测模型研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
需水预测是一个由城市人口、工业水平、社会经济水平共同作用的多因素、多层次的复杂非线性系统.其结果将直接影响受区域水资源承载力约束的产业结构、布局形态等决策.作为一种集中参数预报方法,支持向量机方法具有对未来样本的较好的泛化性能,对于这类资料缺乏、系统结构尚欠清晰的问题可以取得较好的模拟和预测结果.基于此,本文将支持向量机方法引入需水预测领域,建立了需水预测支持向量机模型.同时,本文将加速遗传算法和支持向量机方法耦合起来,构造了支持向量机模型参数的自适应优化算法.模型在珠海市的应用实例表明:与简单遗传算法比较,AGA的模型参数寻优效率更高;与BP神经网络模型相比,SVM模型较好地解决了小样本、经验性等问题,并取得了较高的预测精度. 相似文献
17.
Predictability of Interannual Variability in the Kuroshio Transport South of Japan Based on Wind Stress Data over the North Pacific 总被引:1,自引:3,他引:1
It is expected that a roughly two-year forecast of the Kuroshio transport variation can be made from a past record of wind
stress data over the ocean, since it takes nearly ten years for the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave to traverse the entire
basin in the midlatitude North Pacific (∼30°N). We therefore investigated the predictability using an ocean general circulation
model driven by the wind stress data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. Referring to a hindcast experiment as the control run, we carried out fifteen forecast experiments,
the initial conditions of which are taken from the hindcast experiment at intervals of two years during the period from the
end of 1969 to the end of 1997. Each of the forecast experiments is driven only by wind stress in the year preceding each
experiment. The forecasted Kuroshio transport anomaly south of Japan agrees better with the hindcasted one during the first
two years of the forecast in most cases. In some cases, however, significant disagreements occur, most of which are likely
due to larger unpredictable variations caused by wind stress anomalies near Japan. At the end of forecast year 2, the anomaly
correlation coefficient is about 0.7, and rms of the forecast error is smaller than rms of the hindcasted anomaly. These results
indicate that the prediction of the interannual variability in the Kuroshio transport could be made two years in advance at
a statistically significant level.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
18.
揭示Rankine涡风场模式和Jelesnianski风场模式之间的联系,并设计了一种台风风场分布模式,它的风速分布曲线落在Jelesnianski和Rankine涡两个风场模式的风速分布曲线之间,具有一个既优于Jelesnianski又优于Rankine涡的风速衰减速率,因此它同时克服了Rankine涡模式计算风速偏小和Jelesnianski模式计算风速偏大的缺点,以一种比较合理的变化趋势向远方衰减,成为一个比较切合实际的台风风场分布模式。同时,文中提出的移行台风风场计算方法对宫崎正卫、上野武夫和Jelesnianski模式都有一定的改进。 相似文献
19.
本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式,首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤,及使用说明,为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件,用1986、1987上日本传真天气图进行试报,准确和基本准确度为91.1%,并给出了1989、1995年随船试验预报结果,准确和基本准确率为90%以上。 相似文献
20.
本文以南麂海洋站1983~1990年风、浪的实测资料为依据,建立了南麂海城春、夏、秋、冬季定常波风浪波高与风速的经验关系式。检验结果表明,曲线回归显著,计算值与实测值吻合良好。文中还对偏NNE向和偏SSW向计算波高随风速增大的快慢,同一方向在同一风速作用下计算波高的季节变化及其机理作了初浅的讨论。 相似文献