从灾害链角度讨论1920年海原8.5级地震   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

郭增建  郭安宁 《地震工程学报》2019,41(6):1394-1395,1481

1920年12月16日海原发生8.5级大震。在该年前期,冀、鲁、豫、晋、陕五省大旱。与大旱有关的副高,其边缘引张环作用于旱区西边,对海原大震有中短期促发作用。临震前有西伯利亚寒潮传出的脉动触发了该大震,待寒潮大风来到震区时已在震后一天。这对灾民也是一种附加灾害。  相似文献   

以颗粒物理原理认识汶川M_W 7.9地震发生前临震预滑和震颤现象     

许健生  黄辅琼  李丽  姜振海  冯红武  董立杰 《地震地磁观测与研究》2019,40(1):21-35

发生在孕震区周边地块上的临震预滑和震颤现象,对破坏性地震预测有一定前兆意义,是值得地震学界关注的问题。选取2008年5月12日汶川M_W 7.9地震发生前,临夏和湟源地震台分量应变仪记录与临夏、恩施和西安地震台数字地震仪记录以及临夏和周至地震台深井水位仪记录,分析发现,在临震前数天至数小时,上述各地震台不同学科观测仪器均记录到一些"跃变"和"震颤"震相。文中试图以颗粒物理原理,来认识不同距离、不同台站、不同学科的观测仪器在临震前相近时间段内记录的低频和高频震相,可能是不同地块在临震前发生预滑错动后激发的预滑震相Xp和地下气体在裂隙内流动激发的震颤震相Tp。观测结果表明:2008年5月8日03时至主震发生,各地震台所处地块在相近时段内逐次发生次数不等的预滑错动,其中1—2次较大错动可在噪声背景中被识别;各地震台预滑错动方向指向或背向主震震中。据此认为:汶川M_W7.9地震前,上述各地震台所处地块在不同大小、不同方向的力链驱动下,发生指向或背向主震震中的临震预滑现象。  相似文献   

Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections*          下载免费PDF全文

Hakan Karaca 《地震科学（英文版）》2020,33(2):98-106

The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time.  相似文献   

基于Markov链的金川铜镍矿床超基性岩体侵位过程模拟及找矿启示     

邓浩  刘晓霞  赵莹 《江苏地质》2016,40(3):395-402

金川铜镍矿床是世界第三大铜镍硫化物岩浆矿床,现有研究表明其成矿模式为岩浆通道成矿,但是对于金川超基性岩体的侵位过程存在较大争议。为探索岩体的侵位过程,将岩浆侵位描述为马尔可夫(Markov)过程,提出一种基于Markov链的岩体侵位模拟算法,实现对金川超基性岩体侵位过程的模拟。以金川Ⅱ矿区为例,探讨了侵位过程与矿化的关联及岩浆通道骨架,为在矿床深部寻找第二成矿空间提供方向和线索。  相似文献   

广东湛江南美白对虾价值链实证研究          下载免费PDF全文

郑婉秋  车斌  孙琛 《海洋开发与管理》2021,38(7):25-31

文章采用实地调研法对广东湛江2018—2019年南美白对虾价值链的价值活动、增值结构及其形成原因进行深入剖析。研究发现:①在湛江南美白对虾价值链的育苗、养殖、批发和零售等环节中,养殖环节增值贡献率最高,为50.5%,利润分配最低仅25.6%;零售环节增值率低,仅为31.1%,利润比例分配却最高,高达51.8%;②造成养殖户投入高、收益低的原因包括养殖成本高、苗种质量不稳定、养殖户组织化程度低、议价能力差等。鉴于以上原因,建议：实行集约化和规模化养殖;加强种苗研发,提高种苗质量;大力发展专业合作社,提高养殖户议价能力;调节对虾价值链的利润合理分配,以促进渔民增收和产业健康发展。  相似文献   

Input-output Balances of Nutrients and Plankton in a Flooded Area of the Lower Odra     

C. Engelhardt  A. Krüger  B. Karrasch  M. Baborowski 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》1999,27(5):325-330

The retention of particulate matter of the Odra River in flooded areas was estimated by determining suspended particulate matter (SPM) elimination and particle-bound nutrient retention in a polder area of the Lower Odra Valley national park. Water and suspended matter samples collected before, during, and after the 1997 summer flood at the inlet and the outlet of the investigated polder (Polder A/B close to Schwedt) offer the opportunity to balance the matter retention inside the floodplain. The maximum level of retained SPM (more than 80%) was calculated for the record flood of summer 1997, while in ordinary winter floods retention differs between 33% and 70%. Basic properties of the flowing particles like settling velocity, density, loss on ignition etc. change on their way through the polder area. In the investigated Polder A/B a retention of at least 50% of particle-bound phosphorus which was independent of the incoming suspended matter load from the Odra River was observed. The retention of particle-bound nitrogen and carbon varied seasonally to different extents. The presented balance demonstrates that particle-bound nutrient retention in polders is an important factor in the self-purification process of the river system. Some additional effort was done to study changes of plankton composition: during a joint field experiment in spring 1998, the authors determined biological parameters (abundance and biomass of phytoplankton and zooplankton) of water samples at polder inflow and outflow points.  相似文献   

Assistance networks in seafood trade – A means to assess benefit distribution in small-scale fisheries     

《Marine Policy》2017

This article addresses the connections between value chain actors in the tropical-marine small-scale fisheries of Zanzibar, Tanzania, to contribute to a better understanding of the fisher-trader link and how connections in general might feed into livelihood security. A sample of 168 fishers and 130 traders was taken across 8 sites through questionnaires and observations. The small-scale fishery system is mapped using a value chain framework both traditionally and from a less economic point of view where the assistance-exchange networks between fishery actors add another layer of complexity. Auxiliary actors previously disregarded emerge from the latter method thus shedding light on the poorly understood distribution of benefits from seafood trade. Female actors participate quite differently, relative to males in the market system, detached from high-value links such as the tourist industry, and access to predetermined or secured sales deals. Data shows that the fisher-trader link is not as one-sided as previously presented. In fact it has a more symbiotic exchange deeply nested in a broader trading and social system. Expanding the analysis from this link by taking a further step downstream highlights traders’ own sales arrangements and the social pressures they are under in realizing them. A complex picture, inclusive of diversified perspectives, on interactions in the market place is presented, as well as a reflection on the remaining critical question: how to integrate this type of data into decisions about future fisheries governance.  相似文献   

King Canute muses in the South Seas: Why aren’t Pacific Islands transitioning to low carbon sea transport futures?     

《Marine Policy》2017

Transition to low carbon sea transport is a logical response to the extreme dependency of the Pacific Islands region on imported fossil fuel, its significant vulnerability to the effects of climate change and the critical shipping needs of Pacific Island countries (PICs). Building on previous work in low carbon sea transport in the Pacific, this paper further considers the barriers to achieving such transition by assessing, through a ‘post-Paris Agreement’ lens, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by PICs and contrasting these to the near total lack of investment and planning for low carbon transition in the transport sector with the parallel occurrence in the electricity sector where ~USD 2 billion of donor investment is deployed or queued despite electricity using only ~20% of fossil fuel across the region. Consistent with recent international studies, inadequate and inappropriate financing and policy have been identified as dominant transition barriers for low carbon sea transport development in PICs. This paper further examines the regional level barriers to policy development, and finds them inhibited by the silo nature of the major regional actors. The implications that the Paris Agreement has for climate financing to support the essential research and capacity development needed to underpin a successful low carbon sea transport transition strategy at any useful scale and speed are also considered in this paper.  相似文献   

国产热浸锌锚链的耐蚀性研究(Ⅰ):热浸锌锚链的海港试验   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

马士德  王在东  刘会莲  刘欣 《海洋科学集刊》2017,(52):104-113

本文记叙了国内外首次以大型商品化热浸锌锚链为研究对象的海港试验结果,跟踪记录了其4年的腐蚀与生物污损发展过程。分别于2013年7月、2014年7月、2015年7月和2016年7月将试验锚链提出海面,对出现在锚链上的全部附着生物进行刮取、分类、鉴定、称重,清洗锚链的表面,检查锈点,并对热浸锌锚链表面测厚,照相记录跟踪全过程。试验结果表明：裸钢腐蚀严重,锈层在2~3mm,腐蚀产物易成片脱落,形成大小不等的腐蚀坑,最大坑深3mm左右;热浸锌锚链未出现明显腐蚀点,大气区锌层腐蚀速率约10μm/a,水下区锌层腐蚀速率约20~70μm/a,但在两个链环连接处出现磨蚀锈斑;耐蚀性在不同区带中表现为水上链>水下链;热浸锌锚链表面的污损生物数量少于未浸锌锚链,随着时间延长,热浸锌锚链表面污损生物逐年增多,其中优势生物为海鞘（Ascidians）、苔藓虫（Bryozoans）,其次是贻贝（Mytilus sp.）、牡蛎（Ostreidae sp.）、石莼（Ulva sp.）,曾出现南方污损生物种,如翡翠贻贝（Perna viridis）。2013~2014、2014~2015、2015~2016三年锚链单位面积上污损生物的重量分别为1257.6、1454.6和21304.0g/m²。污损生物重量的增加大大增加了锚链的磨蚀程度,为锚链腐蚀失效埋下了隐患。本研究为海洋工程锚链设计或应用提供了宝贵的科学依据。  相似文献   

人肠道微生物对海带岩藻聚糖硫酸酯及其寡糖的降解利用     

谢洁玲  史晓翀  史姣霞  于彤  李八方  赵雪 《海洋与湖沼》2017,48(1):50-56

采用人肠道微生物体外厌氧发酵技术,研究人肠道微生物对不同分子量岩藻聚糖硫酸酯的降解利用。分别将五个志愿者的肠道微生物接种到以高分子量和低分子量岩藻聚糖硫酸酯为唯一碳源的培养基中,酵解48h后,采用TLC和PAGE分析分子量变化,PMP-HPLC分析单糖组成变化,GC分析短链脂肪酸的生成情况。结果发现:在人肠道微生物体外降解岩藻聚糖硫酸酯的体系中,岩藻聚糖硫酸酯寡糖和低分子量组分(10—20k Da)含量显著降低,而且酵解产物的单糖组成没有变化,说明被人肠道微生物彻底降解利用;而人肠道微生物对高分子量岩藻聚糖硫酸酯(20k Da)的降解和利用度很低,产物的半乳糖和甘露糖的比例明显下降。低分子量和高分子量岩藻聚糖硫酸酯在酵解后均生成短链脂肪酸乙酸、丙酸和丁酸,但在高分子量岩藻聚糖硫酸酯发酵液中还生成了支链脂肪酸(异丁酸、异戊酸)和戊酸。研究结果表明,人肠道微生物能够彻底降解利用复杂的海带岩藻聚糖硫酸酯寡糖和低分子量组分,但是对高分子量岩藻聚糖硫酸酯的降解率很低。单糖分析说明人肠道微生物能够降解和利用多糖中的所有单糖,产生有利于肠道健康的短链脂肪酸,但是只有低分子量岩藻聚糖硫酸酯能够抑制支链脂肪酸生成。  相似文献