大气季节内振荡对印度洋—西太平洋地区热带低压/气旋生成的影响   总被引：24，自引：4，他引：24  

祝从文  Tetsuo Nakazaw  李建平 《气象学报》2004,62(1):42-50

文中利用EOF分析大气季节内振荡 (MJO)的时空变化的方法 ,研究了 1996年 9月～ 1997年 6月间的MJO活动对生成在印度洋—西太平洋海域的热带低压 /气旋的影响。结果发现 ,除西北太平洋之外 ,发生在其他区域的热带低压 /气旋有半数以上生成在向东移动的MJO的湿位相中。伴随MJO的向东传播 ,热带低压 /气旋平均生成位置也随之向东移动 ,而生成在西北太平洋的热带低压 /气旋分别受到向东和向西传播的MJO影响  相似文献   

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005     

U. S. De  Medha Khole  M. M. Dandekar 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(2):487-497

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.  相似文献   

Rivers turned to rock: Late Quaternary alluvial induration influencing the behaviour and morphology of an anabranching river in the Australian monsoon tropics     

Gerald C. Nanson  Brian G. Jones  David M. Price  Timothy J. Pietsch 《Geomorphology》2005,70(3-4):398

Late Quaternary alluvial induration has greatly influenced contemporary channel morphology on the anabranching Gilbert River in the monsoon tropics of the Gulf of Carpentaria. The Gilbert, one of a number of rivers in this region, has contributed to an extensive system of coalescing low-gradient and partly indurated riverine plains. Extensive channel sands were deposited by enhanced flow conditions during marine oxygen isotope (OI) Stage 5. Subsequent flow declined, probably associated with increased aridity, however, enhanced runoff recurred again in OI Stages 4–3 (65–50 ka). Aridity then capped these plains with 4–7 m of mud. A widespread network of sandy distributary channels was incised into this muddy surface from sometime after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the mid Holocene during a fluvial episode more active than the present but less so than those of OI Stages 5 and 3. This network is still partly active but with channel avulsion and abandonment now occurring largely proximal to the main Gilbert flow path.A tropical climate and reactive catchment lithology have enhanced chemical weathering and lithification of alluvium along the river resulting in the formation of small rapids, waterfalls and inset gorges, features characteristic more of bedrock than alluvial systems. Thermoluminescence (TL) and comparative optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages of the sediments are presented along with U/Th ages of pedogenic calcrete and Fe/Mn oxyhydroxide/ oxide accumulations. They show that calcrete precipitated during the Late Quaternary at times similar to those that favoured ferricrete formation, possibly because of an alternating wet–dry climate. Intense chemical alteration of the alluvium leading to induration appears to have prevailed for much of the Late Quaternary but, probably due to exceptional dryness, not during the LGM. The result has been restricted channel migration and a reduced capacity for the channel to adjust and accommodate sudden changes in bedload. Consequent avulsions have caused local stream powers to increase by an order of magnitude, inducing knickpoint erosion, local incision and the sudden influx of additional bedload that has triggered further avulsions. The Gilbert River, while less energetic than its Pleistocene ancestors, is clearly an avulsive system, and emphasizes the importance in some tropical rivers of alluvial induration for reinforcing the banks, generating nickpoints, reworking sediment and thereby developing and maintaining an indurated and anabranching river style.  相似文献   

23,000 yr of vegetation history of the Upper Lerma, a tropical high-altitude basin in Central Mexico     

Socorro Lozano-García  Susana Sosa-Nájera  Margarita Caballero 《Quaternary Research》2005,64(1):70-82

Pollen analysis on a 9.54-m sediment core from lake Chignahuapan in the upper Lerma basin, the highest intermontane basin in Central Mexico (2570 m asl), documents vegetation and limnological changes over the past ∼23,000 ¹⁴C yr. The core was drilled near the archaeological site of Santa Cruz Atizapán, a site with a long history of human occupation, abandoned at the end of the Epiclassic period (ca. 900 AD). Six radiocarbon AMS dates and two well-dated volcanic events, the Upper Toluca Pumice with an age of 11,600 ¹⁴C yr B.P. and the Tres Cruces Tephra of 8500 ¹⁴C yr B.P., provide the chronological framework for the lacustrine sequence. From ca. 23,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. to ca. 11,600 ¹⁴C yr B.P. the plant communities were woodlands and grasslands based on the pollen data. The glacial advances MII-1 and MII-2 correlate with abundant non-arboreal pollen, mainly grasses, from ca. 21,000 to 16,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., and at ca. 12,600 ¹⁴C yr B.P. During the late Pleistocene, lake Chignahuapan was a shallow freshwater lake with a phase of lower level between 19,000 and 16,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. After 10,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., tree cover in the area increased, and a more variable lake level is documented. Late Holocene (ca. 3100 ¹⁴C yr B.P.) deforestation was concurrent with human population expansion at the beginning of the Formative period (1500 B.C.). Agriculture and manipulation of the lacustrine environment by human lakeshore populations appear at 1200 ¹⁴C yr B.P. (550 A.D.) with the appearance of Zea mays pollen and abundant charcoal particles.  相似文献   

SERIALS     

《Abstract of Chinese Geological Literature》2014,(2)

正Acta Geographica Sinica ISSN0375-5444 CN11-1856/P Acta Geologica Sichuan ISSN1006-0995 CN51-1273/P Acta Geologica Sinica ISSN0001-5717 CN11-1951/P Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)ISSN1000-9515 CN11-2001/P Acta Geoscientica Sinica ISSN1006-3021 CN11-3474/P Acta Micropalaeontologica Sinica ISSN1000-0674 CN32-1189/Q  相似文献   

Upper-Tropospheric Environment–Tropical Cyclone Interactions over the Western North Pacific: A Statistical Study     

Yu-Kun QIAN  Chang-Xia LIANG  Zhuojian YUAN  Shiqiu PENG  Junjie WU  Sihua WANG 《大气科学进展》2016,33(5):614-631

Based on 25-year(1987–2011) tropical cyclone(TC) best track data, a statistical study was carried out to investigate the basic features of upper-tropospheric TC–environment interactions over the western North Pacific. Interaction was defined as the absolute value of eddy momentum flux convergence(EFC) exceeding 10 m s~(-1)d~(-1). Based on this definition, it was found that 18% of all six-hourly TC samples experienced interaction. Extreme interaction cases showed that EFC can reach~120 m s~(-1)d~(-1) during the extratropical-cyclone(EC) stage, an order of magnitude larger than reported in previous studies.Composite analysis showed that positive interactions are characterized by a double-jet flow pattern, rather than the traditional trough pattern, because it is the jets that bring in large EFC from the upper-level environment to the TC center. The role of the outflow jet is also enhanced by relatively low inertial stability, as compared to the inflow jet. Among several environmental factors, it was found that extremely large EFC is usually accompanied by high inertial stability, low SST and strong vertical wind shear(VWS). Thus, the positive effect of EFC is cancelled by their negative effects. Only those samples during the EC stage, whose intensities were less dependent on VWS and the underlying SST, could survive in extremely large EFC environments, or even re-intensify. For classical TCs(not in the EC stage), it was found that environments with a moderate EFC value generally below ~25 m s~(-1)d~(-1) are more favorable for a TC's intensification than those with extremely large EFC.  相似文献   

1998-2009年间台风不活跃期间热带云团活动分析     

叶日新  吴立广 《气象科学》2016,36(3):291-300

热带云团是台风生成的前兆,虽然一些研究将近20 a来台风不活跃与大尺度环境场相联系,但是还没有人分析台风不活跃期热带云团的活动特点。本文利用目前仅有的1989-2009年全球热带云团资料,分析了西北太平洋热带云团近20 a的变化特征。1998年以后西北太平洋台风生成减少主要发生在7-10月,集中在南海（13～23°N,110～120°E）和西北太平洋台风活动区域的东部（13～23°N,145～170°E）。热带云团除1月外各月都有增加的趋势,特别是与台风生成显著减少区域相联系的热带云团活动具有显著的增加趋势。通过对NCEP/NCAR再分析资料分析发现,1998年后热带云团活动增加与环境风垂直切变增加有关,而增强的垂直切变不利于台风生成。  相似文献   

中国大陆流域分区TRMM降水质量评价   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

刘少华  严登华  王浩  李传哲  秦天玲  翁白莎  邢子强 《水科学进展》2016,27(5):639-651

根据中国境内2 257个气象站点1998-2013年逐日降水资料,结合流域分区,采用探测准确性、相关系数以及相对误差等指标,对热带降水测量（TRMM）降水精度和一致性进行系统评价。结果表明:① TRMM日降水准确性从东南沿海向西北内陆递减;② 气象站点年均降水日数显著大于TRMM年均降水日数;③ 西北片区以外气象站点降水量和TRMM降水量在月尺度和年尺度上均具有较好的相关关系;④ 各流域年均TRMM面降水量均高于气象站点面降水量,且TRMM面降水量相对误差雨季较小,枯季较大;⑤ 各流域TRMM面降水量与气象站点面降水量演变趋势基本一致,南方各流域年降水量均呈减少趋势,北方各流域年降水量均呈增加趋势,全国尺度上年降水量呈微弱的减少趋势。  相似文献   

Remote Sensing Observations of Ocean Surface Chlorophyll and Temperature with the Impact of Cyclones and Depressions over the Bay of Bengal Water     

R. K. Sarangi 《Marine Geodesy》2016,39(1):53-76

MODIS-Aqua derived eight-day composite chlorophyll concentration data analyzed to study the impact of cyclones and depressions on the Bay of Bengal productivity. A total of 15 cyclonic storms and depressions picked up from the India Meteorological Department datasets. MODIS-Aqua data analyzed during October 2002 to December 2009. There was observation of depressions (D), deep depressions (DD), cyclonic storms (CS), severe cyclonic storms (SCS), and very severe cyclonic storms (VSCS) with categories of intensities (“T” numbers 1.5–6) and wind speeds (25–108 knots). The chlorophyll concentration observed to be high (1.0–5.0 mg/m³) with the impact in the coastal and offshore waters. Quickscat scatterometer data showed high wind speed (about 10 meters/second). Sea surface temperature (SST) observed to be decreased (roughly 2°C) with effect of cyclones. The cyclone numbers, intensity, and chlorophyll concentration has been observed to be increasing from 2002 to 2009, with observation of VSCS “Sidr” during 2007. The study would be interesting to link carbon flux/sequestration, marine food chain, and harnessing fishery resources in a postcyclone period.  相似文献   

基于CWRF的中国近海热带气旋集合模拟及其对物理参数化方案的敏感性研究          下载免费PDF全文

Wenru Shi  Haishan Chen  Xin-Zhong Liang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(1):22-26

为评估CWRF模式的降尺度能力和其热带气旋模拟对物理参数化方案的敏感性,本文利用ERI再分析资料驱动CWRF在30km网格上对1982-2016年中国近海热带气旋开展了一次集合模拟.结果表明:CWRF与ERI均能模拟出热带气旋的季节变化和年际变化形势且均存在低估,但相较ERI,CWRF的降尺度技术和集合模拟可以再现更多的热带气旋,显著减少低估.年际变化结果提升最为明显,它对积云方案最为敏感,其次是边界层,陆面和辐射方案,对云和微物理方案较弱.该研究为应用CWRF理解和预报热带气旋提供了参考.  相似文献