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21.
Validation of model output is an important issue in the environmental sciences. This is particularly the case for reduced complexity modelling approaches where verification of the underlying equations is often problematic. Hence, methods that go beyond validation based on average values or the histogram of model output, are clearly advantageous. In this paper we show that a validation method based on the serial properties of time–space data, and developed in geomorphology, is a useful alternative but is nevertheless still insensitive to certain asymmetric characteristics of the signal. Hence, use of this method for validation may be enhanced by the adoption of an accompanying test for asymmetry in the model output. 相似文献
22.
Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model
errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which
CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems
to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the
sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian
satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations
were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each
of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different
CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch
and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE),
and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating
the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute
BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It
was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde
observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four
CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in
the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation.
Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper
levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption
in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation
is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is
more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller
scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study
is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the
CPSs for different synoptic situations. 相似文献
23.
Effects of Temperature and Humidity upon the Entrainment of Sedimentary Particles by Wind 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Cheryl Mckenna Neuman 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,108(1):61-89
Aeolian transport of sedimentary particles is a well-recognized phenomenon in cold regions, but the effect of low temperature (T) and specific humidity (q) upon particle entrainment has not previously been investigated. This study reports on wind-tunnel experiments (-12 °C T 32 °C, and 1 g kg-1 q 10 g kg-1) that suggest the aerodynamic drag required to entrain sand sized particles can be 30% lower in cold or high latitude settings, as compared to hot deserts. For any given regional wind velocity, this effect will increase the wind strength index and thereby the proportion of time a surface is active at low temperature.The influence of air temperature and humidity upon the threshold for particle motion is determined by three physical processes: (1) The effect of air viscosity and density on the fluid drag force acting to dislodge sedimentary particles; (2) the effect of viscosity on the turbulent wake shed from these particles, and the frequency and magnitude of burst-sweep events; and (3) the development of inter-particle cohesion via adsorbed water. This study considers the relative importance of each of these processes. The threshold friction velocity model of Shao and Lu is revised to incorporate the inter-particle force associated with hygroscopic water. It is found to perform well when tested against the experimental data obtained for this study. 相似文献
24.
Huth Radan Mládek Richard Metelka Ladislav Sedlák Pavel Huthová Zuzana Kliegrová Stanislava Kyselý Jan Pokorná Lucie Halenka Tomáš Janoušek Martin 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2003,47(4):863-873
This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model. 相似文献
25.
The static, cyclic, and dynamic response of a massive caisson foundation embedded in nonlinear layered or inhomogeneous soil and loaded at its top is investigated. The caisson is supported against horizontal displacement and rotation by four types of inelastic springs and dashpots, described with the BWGG model that was developed in the preceding companion paper [Gerolymos N, Gazetas G. Development of winkler model for static and dynamic response of caisson foundations with soil and interface nonlinearities. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng, submitted companion paper]. The prediction of the model is satisfactorily compared with results from 3D-finite element analysis. Some experimental corroboration of the method is provided with the help of a 1/3-scale lateral load test that had been conducted in the field by EPRI. An illustrative example of a caisson embedded in linearly-inhomogeneous clay and subjected to static and dynamic loading is analysed. Characteristic results are presented highlighting the role of soil inelasticity and its interplay with the two dominant interface nonlinearities: separation (gapping) of the caisson shaft from the surrounding soil, and uplifting of the base from the underlying soil. 相似文献
26.
In this paper we consider the procedures that, on the basis of an earthquake catalogue, yield the magnitude distribution function F
M
(F
M
generators). In particular, our attention is focused on the F
M
generators that are currently used in the frame of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at a site. From an engineering point of view, the behaviour of F
M
in the range of strong earthquakes is of crucial importance. On the other hand, in general, the statistical validation of F
M
in that range is not feasible because of an insufficient number of strong earthquakes in available catalogues.Our investigation is limited to the problem of the comparison between competing F
M
generators. We show that a simple empirical F
M
generator (called the CFP generator) can be more reliable than generators based on mathematical models. The numerical experiments that support this statement regards two test-sites and two mathematical models of magnitude distribution, namely the truncated-exponential and the characteristic-type models.The main conclusion is the suggestion of a test (called the CFP-test) that can be summarized as follows. Let X be a site for which, with current criteria, a specific F
M
X
generator based on a mathematical model has been selected. At this point, following the comparison approach described in the paper, the F
M
X
generator is compared with the empirical CFP generator. It can happen (actually it happens in many of our numerical experiments) that this test indicates the CFP generator as more reliable than the selected F
M
X
generator. 相似文献
27.
A microscale three-dimensional urban energy balance model for studying surface temperatures 总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1
A microscale three-dimensional (3-D) urban energy balance model, Temperatures of Urban Facets in 3-D (TUF-3D), is developed
to predict urban surface temperatures for a variety of surface geometries and properties, weather conditions, and solar angles.
The surface is composed of plane-parallel facets: roofs, walls, and streets, which are further sub-divided into identical
square patches, resulting in a 3-D raster-type model geometry. The model code is structured into radiation, conduction and
convection sub-models. The radiation sub-model uses the radiosity approach and accounts for multiple reflections and shading
of direct solar radiation. Conduction is solved by finite differencing of the heat conduction equation, and convection is
modelled by empirically relating patch heat transfer coefficients to the momentum forcing and the building morphology. The
radiation and conduction sub-models are tested individually against measurements, and the complete model is tested against
full-scale urban surface temperature and energy balance observations. Modelled surface temperatures perform well at both the
facet-average and the sub-facet scales given the precision of the observations and the uncertainties in the model inputs.
The model has several potential applications, such as the calculation of radiative loads, and the investigation of effective
thermal anisotropy (when combined with a sensor-view model). 相似文献
28.
图象重建是一个求逆过程具有不适定性。本文介绍的是一种从少数投影数据进行图象重建的线性代数法-Phillips-Tikhonov正则化方法,同时选择优化工具GCV确定最优的正则参数。为验证该方法,我们对日本Yohkoh卫星上塔载的硬X射线望远镜(HXT)拍摄的太阳图象进行重建。 相似文献
29.
In this paper, there is presented an elastoplastic constitutive model to predict sandy soils behavior under monotonic and cyclic loadings. This model is based on an existing model (Cambou‐Jafari‐Sidoroff) that takes into account deviatoric and isotropic mechanisms of plasticity. The flow rule used in the deviatoric mechanism is non‐associated and a mixed hardening law controls the evolution of the yield surface. In this research the critical state surface and history surface, which separates the virgin and cyclic states in stress space, are defined. Kinematic hardening modulus and stress–dilatancy law for monotonic and cyclic loadings are effectively modified. With taking hardening modulus as a function of deviatoric and volumetric plastic strain and with defining the history surface and stress reversal, the model has the ability to predict the sandy soils' behavior. All of the model parameters have clear physical meanings and can be determined from usual laboratory tests. In order to validate the model, the results of homogeneous tests on Hostun and Toyoura sands are used. The results of validation show a good capability of the proposed model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
30.
SARAL/AltiKa GDR-T are analyzed to assess the quality of the significant wave height (SWH) measurements. SARAL along-track SWH plots reveal cases of erroneous data, more or less isolated, not detected by the quality flags. The anomalies are often correlated with strong attenuation of the Ka-band backscatter coefficient, sensitive to clouds and rain. A quality test based on the 1 Hz standard deviation is proposed to detect such anomalies. From buoy comparison, it is shown that SARAL SWH is more accurate than Jason-2, particularly at low SWH, and globally does not require any correction. Results are better with open ocean than with coastal buoys. The scatter and the number of outliers are much larger for coastal buoys. SARAL is then compared with Jason-2 and Cryosat-2. The altimeter data are extracted from the global altimeter SWH Ifremer data base, including specific corrections to calibrate the various altimeters. The comparison confirms the high quality of SARAL SWH. The 1 Hz standard deviation is much less than for Jason-2 and Cryosat-2, particularly at low SWH. Furthermore, results show that the corrections applied to Jason-2 and to Cryosat-2, in the data base, are efficient, improving the global agreement between the three altimeters. 相似文献