基于降水目标的主雨带识别及预报误差空间检验     

蔡义勇  危国飞  党皓飞  林青 《气象与环境学报》2020,36(1):36-42

利用2014—2018年4—6月福建省及周边地区实测降水量和ECMWF模式降水量预报产品资料,采用目标识别方法,设定降水量阈值α,选取合适的特征尺度D₀和邻近度阈值β,分别识别实况降水场的主雨带和预报降水场的所有雨带,并选取匹配度阈值进行目标配对,确定与实况降水场主雨带最匹配的预报降水场主雨带。改进SAL空间检验方法,将模式主雨带预报误差用主雨带的强度（指降水极值和降水量阈值）、位置（指重心点位置）、形态（指主轴、次轴特征长度和轴向角度）属性的预报误差来表示。结果表明：预报主雨带的降水极值比实况小,但降水量阈值比实况大;预报主雨带的重心点位置与实况相比,4月偏西、偏南,5月、6月偏西、偏北,预报主雨带的重心位置多是滞后于实况,位于实况主雨带的上游;主雨带大都呈窄长带状分布,预报主雨带比实况更窄长,且预报时效越长越窄长。预报主雨带轴向角度比实况略小,总体均呈东偏北走向。以上分析结果可为模式主雨带预报误差的订正提供依据。  相似文献   

吉林省高温天气气候特征及其过程等级评估     

纪玲玲  袭祝香  陈卓  刘玉汐 《气象与环境学报》2020,36(3):49-54

利用1951—2018年吉林省50站逐日最高气温资料,采用气候倾向率、距平累积、灰色关联度、正态分布等方法分析了吉林省高温天气的时空分布特征、建立了吉林省高温过程综合指数、高温过程评估等级指标和气候重现期指标。结果表明：近68 a来,吉林省年平均高温日数总体呈增加趋势,气候倾向率为0.04 d/10 a。吉林省高温次数阶段性变化明显,1959—1996年为偏少时段;1951—1958年、1997—2018年为偏多阶段。吉林省高温天气主要出现在6月中旬至8月中旬,其中7月下旬最多,8月上旬次多。西部为高温的高发区,吉林省年平均高温日数呈自西向东减少特征。对高温过程进行了等级划分,并给出等级及气候重现期评估指标,对于高温过程,可采用综合指数评估指标和各分项评估指标进行评估,便于在决策业务中应用。  相似文献   

云南省雷灾特征分析及灾情评估     

殷娴  尹丽云  许迎杰  刘平英 《气象科技》2013,41(1):184-190

根据云南省2007 2008年的雷电灾害资料以及地闪资料,分析了云南省16个地级市的雷电灾害分布特征,讨论了雷灾分布与地闪分布的关系,并从雷灾记录中提取了6个灾度指标,通过AHP法(层次分析法)建立灾情评估层次模型和灾度评估方程,计算了云南省522次雷灾的灾度值,用SAS中聚类分析过程将灾度值分为4级,并统计分析了各级雷灾在各地区的分布情况,得出云南雷电灾害中小型雷灾分布较广、出现几率较大,而大型和特大型雷灾发生几率较低、主要集中在昆明和德宏地区.该文结论为区域防雷减灾规划提供了科学依据.  相似文献   

影响鸢乌贼手钓上钩率的因子探讨     

吴国峰  陈新军 《广东海洋大学学报》2006,26(6):35-38

根据印度洋西北部鸢乌贼(Symplectoteuthis oualaniensis)作业渔场的现场调查数据,分析了作业水深、作业时段、摄食等级和月相等因子对手钓上钩率的影响。统计表明,晚上、午夜和凌晨3个不同时段和不同作业水深对手钓上钩率均有显著性影响。3个时段中,其摄食等级呈先低后高再低的现象。午夜和凌晨,上钩率的变化趋势与摄食等级的变化趋势呈显著的负相关。在月相的影响下,离朔日三四天之前,手钓产量呈上升趋势;离望日五六天之前,手钓产量呈明显的下降趋势。  相似文献   

张家界旅游企业空间成长对城镇空间形态的影响     

麻学锋  杨雪  李志龙 《地理研究》2019,38(8):1965-1978

运用核密度估计法和标准差椭圆分析法,分析张家界旅游企业空间成长特征及演化过程;选取紧凑度指标,结合城镇空间均衡分布椭圆,分析张家界城镇空间形态演化过程;通过比较不同阶段旅游企业椭圆和城镇空间椭圆的重合面积,剖析旅游企业空间成长对城镇空间形态的影响程度。研究发现：① 张家界旅游企业空间成长过程和特征为：由出现期的“一核多极点”逐渐演变为生成期的“核心-边缘”,最后在发展期形成一个高集聚中心和三个次中心联动的“组团扩展型”格局;② 张家界建成区面积呈现增长态势,城镇空间不断扩展,建成区用地紧凑度逐渐下降;③ 不同阶段,张家界旅游企业空间成长对城镇空间形态的影响程度有一定的差异性,整体呈现出逐渐增强的趋势。研究结论对于重新认识旅游对城镇化建设的作用具有重要的现实意义。  相似文献   

Static Spheroidal Deformation of Degree 1 - Consistency Relation, Stress Solution and Partials     

Shuhei Okubo  Takeshi Endo 《Geophysical Journal International》1986,86(1):91-102

This paper treats the static spheroidal deformation of degree 1 in detail. We give a physical interpretation of the consistency relation imposed on it. the relation serves as a guiding principle to find out all of its members. Following Okubo & Saito, we derive the partial derivatives of the degree 1 Love numbers with respect to density, bulk modulus and rigidity.  相似文献   

Are Arc Basalts Dry, Wet, or Both? Evidence from the Sumisu Caldera Volcano, Izu-Bonin Arc, Japan   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

TAMURA  Y.; TANI  K.; ISHIZUKA  O.; CHANG  Q.; SHUKUNO  H.; FISKE  R. S. 《Journal of Petrology》2005,46(9):1769-1803

Basalt–basaltic andesite (<55 wt % SiO₂) and dacite–rhyolite(66–74 wt % SiO₂) are the predominant eruptive productsin the Sumisu caldera volcano, Izu–Bonin arc, Japan. Themost magnesian basalt (8·5% MgO), as well as some ofthe other basalts, has a low Zr content (20–25 ppm), andcannot yield basalts with higher Zr contents (29–40 ppm)through fractionation and/or assimilation. The high- and low-Zrbasalts have different phenocryst assemblages, olivine, plagioclaseand pyroxene phenocryst chemistries, REE (rare earth element)patterns, and fluid-mobile element/immobile element ratios.Estimated primary olivine compositions are more magnesian (>Fo₉₁)in the low-Zr basalts compared with those in high-Zr basalts(<Fo₈₉). The low-Zr basalts contain up to 11 vol. % augite,but many high-Zr basalts are free of augite, which appears onlyin their more differentiated products. The low-Zr basalts areconsidered to be hydrous magmas in which olivine crystallizesfirst followed by augite and plagioclase, whereas the high-Zrbasalts are dry. The low-Zr basalts have higher U/Th ratiosthan the high-Zr basalts. We suggest that both dry and wet primarybasalts existed in the Sumisu magmatic system, each having differenttrace element concentrations, mineral assemblages and mineralchemistry. The lower contents of Zr and light REE and magnesianprimary olivines in the wet basalts could have resulted froma higher degree of partial melting (20%) of a hydrous sourcemantle compared with 10% melting of a dry source mantle. TheSr, Nd and Pb isotope compositions of the wet and dry basaltsare similar and are limited in range. These lines of evidenceindicate that a mantle diapir model might be applicable to satisfythe configuration of such a mantle source region beneath a singlevolcanic system such as Sumisu. KEY WORDS: degree of melting; hot fingers; isotopes; mantle diapir; mantle wedge  相似文献   

锆石红外光谱在地质研究中的应用     

闫秋实  尹观 《物探与化探》2004,28(2):142-146

以甘肃白银厂地区的7件锆石同位素年龄样品为例,根据其红外光谱中615cm-1吸收峰的高和半高宽度的比值,将锆石样品的变生程度量化,并将其分为晶质锆石、半变生锆石和变生锆石3类。参考相关资料,利用7件锆石样品的红外光谱特征对其铀钍含量和"红外年龄"做了估测,并将估测年龄与其U Th年龄和全岩Rb Sr年龄进行了比较和分析。  相似文献   

Global Bifurcations of Periodic Solutions of the Restricted Three Body Problem     

A. J. Maciejewski  S. M. Rybicki 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2004,88(3):293-324

We describe global bifurcations from the libration points of non-stationary periodic solutions of the restricted three body problem. We show that the only admissible continua of non-stationary periodic solutions of the planar restricted three body problem, bifurcating from the libration points, can be the short-period families bifurcating from the Lagrange equilibria L ₄, L ₅. We classify admissible continua and show that there are possible exactly six admissible continua of non-stationary periodic solutions of the planar restricted three body problem. We also characterize admissible continua of non-stationary periodic solutions of the spatial restricted three body problem. Moreover, we combine our results with the Déprit and Henrard conjectures (see [8]), concerning families of periodic solutions of the planar restricted three body problem, and show that they can be formulated in a stronger way. As the main tool we use degree theory for SO(2)-equivariant gradient maps defined by the second author in [25].This revised version was published online in October 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

基于物元分析的地下水质量综合评判     

邹叶锋  陈锁忠 《安徽地质》2006,16(2):116-119

由于地下水中含有多种离子,若仅通过单项离子来评判水质等级,势必有很大的缺陷,因此采用一种基于物元分析理论的综合评判方法,建立多种指标的评判模型,运用关联函数来进行地下水质量等级的评判。  相似文献