Influence of future tropical cyclone track changes on their basin-wide intensity over the western North Pacific: Downscaled CMIP5 projections     

Chao Wang  Liguang Wu 《大气科学进展》2015,32(5):613-623

The possible changes of tropical cyclone(TC) tracks and their influence on the future basin-wide intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP) are examined based on the projected large-scale environments derived from a selection of CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Specific attention is paid to the performance of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating the large-scale environment for TC development over the WNP. A downscaling system including individual models for simulating the TC track and intensity is used to select the CMIP5 models and to simulate the TC activity in the future.The assessment of the future track and intensity changes of TCs is based on the projected large-scale environment in the21 st century from a selection of nine CMIP5 climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(RCP4.5)scenario. Due to changes in mean steering flows, the influence of TCs over the South China Sea area is projected to decrease,with an increasing number of TCs taking a northwestward track. Changes in prevailing tracks and their contribution to basin-wide intensity change show considerable inter-model variability. The influences of changes in prevailing track make a marked contribution to TC intensity change in some models, tending to counteract the effect of SST warming. This study suggests that attention should be paid to the simulated large-scale environment when assessing the future changes in regional TC activity based on climate models. In addition, the change in prevailing tracks should be considered when assessing future TC intensity change.  相似文献   

Seasonal prediction of June rainfall over South China: Model assessment and statistical downscaling     

Kun-Hui Ye  Chi-Yung Tam  Wen Zhou  Soo-Jin Sohn 《大气科学进展》2015,32(5):680-689

The performances of various dynamical models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) Climate Center(APCC) multi-model ensemble(MME) in predicting station-scale rainfall in South China(SC) in June were evaluated.It was found that the MME mean of model hindcasts can skillfully predict the June rainfall anomaly averaged over the SC domain.This could be related to the MME's ability in capturing the observed linkages between SC rainfall and atmospheric large-scale circulation anomalies in the Indo-Pacific region.Further assessment of station-scale June rainfall prediction based on direct model output(DMO) over 97 stations in SC revealed that the MME mean outperforms each individual model.However,poor prediction abilities in some in-land and southeastern SC stations are apparent in the MME mean and in a number of models.In order to improve the performance at those stations with poor DMO prediction skill,a station-based statistical downscaling scheme was constructed and applied to the individual and MME mean hindcast runs.For several models,this scheme can outperform DMO at more than 30 stations,because it can tap into the abilities of the models in capturing the anomalous Indo-Paciric circulation to which SC rainfall is considerably sensitive.Therefore,enhanced rainfall prediction abilities in these models should make them more useful for disaster preparedness and mitigation purposes.  相似文献   

黄淮地区夏季日降水分区概率预报方法研究     

赵琳娜  董航宇  吴亮  王彬雁  白雪梅  党皓飞 《气象》2015,41(12):1503-1513

利用我国黄淮地区1961—2010年50年6—8月的日降水资料,采用REOF和t检验的方法,将中国黄淮地区夏季降水分成Ⅰ—Ⅴ区。5个区域进行差异性t检验表明5个区域之间（彼此）差异显著,说明了区域划分的正确性。在此基础上利用1999—2007年6—8月站点日降水资料以及CFSv2模式后预报的日降水资料建立了5个区域内共5个代表站点的夏季日降水概率预报方程,并进行了确定性、概率性预报检验和业务试用检验。对各区域内5个代表站日降水量的确定性预报检验表明：Logistic回归降水概率预报方程的TS评分要高于CFSv2模式预报和T213的集合预报平均,空报率也低于CFSv2模式预报和T213集合预报平均,但是漏报率却略高。各区域代表站日降水量的概率预报Brier评分检验表明：Brier评分均不超过0.2,大大低于T213集合预报所得概率预报的Brier评分分值,说明本文Logistic回归方程的概率预报较为可靠。Brier技巧评分表明：Logistic回归降水概率预报方程各站的BSS技巧评分都大于0.0,说明各站的预报技巧高于检验样本气候概率的预报技巧,且高于T213集合预报的Brier技巧评分,说明在分区基础上建立Logistic回归降水概率预报方程的方法是有预报意义的。  相似文献   

一次华北暴雨过程中边界层东风活动及作用   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

吴庆梅  刘卓  王国荣  翟亮  丁青兰 《应用气象学报》2015,26(2):160-172

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°逐6 h分析资料、微波辐射计资料及FY-2E气象卫星及雷达探测资料,针对2013年6月4日发生在北京及周边地区的一次暴雨过程中边界层东风活动及作用进行了天气学诊断分析,结果表明:对流性暴雨过程伴随有源自东北平原的边界层东风活动,东风活动具有尺度小、降温明显和湿度大等特点。暴雨过程是边界层东风和中低空暖式切变线、偏南风急流和500 hPa短波槽共同作用的结果;东风湿冷空气的锋面抬升和地形抬升作用共同加强了中低层暖湿气流的辐合上升运动,同时东风冷垫和地形抬升作用触发了雷暴的再次发生,相应雷暴具有高架对流特点。东风气流起到了边界层水汽输送作用,中低层偏南暖湿气流为暴雨的产生提供了充足的水汽和不稳定层结条件。  相似文献   

CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND EASTERN ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON SYSTEM BASED ON FUZZY SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL INVERSION FORECAST     

洪梅  张韧  阎恒乾  葛晶晶 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(S1):34-45

Based on the adaptive network fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), methods to filter out the noise of impact factors from the main signal are discussed. Focusing on the abnormal weather conditions in 2010, we use the delay-relevant method to analyze the five members of the summer monsoon system that had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies from the observational data. ANFIS is suitable for research and simulation of subtropical highs that are difficult to describe accurately with dynamics, allowing the effect of five factors on the subtropical high anomalies to be examined. Our results show that the Mascarene cold high, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies. Diagnostic analysis, with genetic algorithms (GA) and dynamical reconstruction theory, reconstructed the nonlinear dynamical model of the subtropical high and its main factors objectively and accurately from the sequence of observations in 2010. Furthermore, a dynamically extended forecast experiment is performed. The forecasts for the subtropical high area index, the Mascarene cold high index, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough index all show a strong short-term effect over less than 25 days. The forecasting trend is accurate, and the error rate is no more than 7%. Our results provide new insight and methods for research on the association between the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon system, and for the prediction of the western Pacific subtropical high index.  相似文献   

极震区岩体地震动力破坏研究体系框架浅析     

梁庆国  韩文峰  李雪峰  李德武 《地球科学进展》2010,25(1):43-54

极震区岩体地震动力破坏是造成极震区严重的地震地质灾害和次生灾害的根本原因。汶川地震中因此而导致的交通工程结构损坏、中断和次生崩滑流、堰塞湖等地质灾害,不仅加剧了灾害损失,并给震后的灾区恢复重建和对外交通遗留了较多的安全隐患。从岩体稳定、山体稳定和区域稳定的层次,分别对有关极震区岩体地震动力破坏的主要研究成果进行了系统总结,分析了其现状和存在的问题。结合对研究思路和方法论的讨论,构建了极震区岩体地震动力破坏研究的体系框架,提出了极震区岩体地震动力破坏研究的主要内容和方向,以期明晰概念,理清思路,为有关问题的深入研究提供有益的参考。  相似文献   

地球系统动力学模式和模拟研究的进展   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

曾庆存  林朝晖 《地球科学进展》2010,25(1):1-6

概述地球系统动力学模式的由来及国内外目前的研究和模拟进展。地球系统动力学模式是描述全球气候以及生态和环境系统的整体耦合演变的数学表达。利用他作大规模数值模拟,以便认识和预测全球和区域的气候和生态环境变化,有效应对防灾减灾和规划可持续发展等。目前国内外尚未完全研制出可供实用的地球系统模式,还须二三年时间。  相似文献   

露天矿排土场高边坡动力稳定性研究     

刘寒鹏 《地质与勘探》2010,46(4)

露天矿生产采用爆破手段,除采矿形成边坡外,废矿堆积也常常形成排土场高边坡,现场实测露天矿排土场在生产爆破作用下的振动速度,将实测加速度数据推导得到的水平加速度值,线性插值到每一个土条中,利用等效静力法对边坡在爆破动力作用下的稳定性进行了计算及评价,与传统等效静力法相比,此方法更接近实际振动加速度分布情况。同时,采用模态叠加法,通过有限元动力响应分析的手段,对露天矿排土场高边坡表面不同部位土体位移分布规律进行了分析,最终得到研究边坡在生产爆破动荷载作用下不会产生整体滑移,但在坡面顶部表层或浅层会产生一定深度的拉张裂缝,在重力和爆破动力的作用下裂缝逐渐加深,到一定深度时,表层矿渣会顺坡滑下产生表面滑塌型破坏的结论。  相似文献   

Using a Bayesian estimator to combine information from a cluster analysis and remote sensing data to estimate high-resolution data for agricultural production in Germany     

Alexander Gocht  Norbert Röder 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(9):1744-1764

In Germany, a county-resolution data set that consists of 35 land-use and animal-stock categories has been used extensively to assess the impact of agriculture on the environment. However, because such environmental effects as emission or nutrient surplus depend on the location, even a county resolution might produce misleading results. The aim of this article is to propose a Bayesian approach which combines two sorts of information, with one being treated as defining the prior and the other the data to form a posterior, used to estimate a data set at a municipality resolution. We define the joint prior density function based on (i) remote sensing data, thus accounting for differences in county data and missing data at the municipality level, and (ii) the results of a cluster analysis that was previously applied to the micro-census, whereas the data are defined by official statistics at the county level. This approach results in a fairly accurate data set at the municipality level. The results, using the proposed method, are validated by the national research data centre by comparing the estimates to actual observations. The test statistics presented here demonstrate that the proposed approach adequately estimates the production activities.  相似文献   

基于TRMM卫星的近10a甘肃临夏降水变化特征     

杨文月  马金辉  杨文凯 《干旱气象》2014,32(6):934-939

基于2001~2010年TRMM 3B43降水资料和数字高程模型（DEM）数据,采用回归模型＋残差的方法,对甘肃临夏回族自治州近10 a的TRMM 3B43降水数据进行降尺度运算,并结合研究区6个雨量站的观测值,对TRMM 3B43降尺度结果进行精度检验,在此基础上定量研究了临夏回族自治州近10 a的降水量时空变化特征。结果表明：TRMM 3B43降尺度降水量数据整体上具有一定的可信度,但比地面台站的观测值偏小;甘肃临夏州年降水量呈现出由西南向东北递减的趋势,且降水量随着海拔高度的升高而逐渐增加,两者相关系数为0.82;年内降水主要集中在5~9月,基本占全年降水量的70%以上,其中6月降水量最大,12月降水量最小。  相似文献