雅砻江流域主汛期降水长期预报的一种方法     

赵守尧 《成都信息工程学院学报》1994,(1)

本文使用天气学方法，从影响雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的长期预报有关因子出发，再运用数理统计方法反复筛选，仅取３个主要因子：西部青藏高原８个站冬春积温，北部冬季极涡面积指数，南部冬季印缅槽平均强度，建立逐步回归预报方程。结果显示：对主汛期６～９月降水量预报拟合准确率为１６／１７即约９４％。回归分析中发现：尽管西太平洋副热带高压对盆地西部降水有很大影响，盛夏且与高原积温有较密切相关，但由放大范围长时段的青藏高原积温，对于雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的影响超过西太平洋副热高压，因而在逐步回归过程中，副高因子仍被剔除．  相似文献   

On water ice formation in interstellar clouds     

R. Papoular 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,362(2):489-497

A model is proposed for the formation of water ice mantles on grains in interstellar clouds. This occurs by direct accretion of monomers from the gas, be they formed by gas or surface reactions. The formation of the first monolayer requires a minimum extinction of interstellar radiation, sufficient to lower the grain temperature to the point where thermal evaporation of monomers is just offset by monomer accretion from the gas. This threshold is mainly determined by the adsorption energy of water molecules on the grain material; for hydrocarbon material, chemical simulation places this energy between 0.5 and 2 kcal mol⁻¹, which sets the (true) visible extinction threshold at a few magnitudes. However, realistic distributions of matter in a cloud will usually add to this an unrelated amount of cloud core extinction, which can explain the large dispersion of observed (apparent) thresholds. Once the threshold is crossed, all available water molecules in the gas are quickly adsorbed, because the grain cools down and the adsorption energy on ice is higher than on bare grain. The relative thickness of the mantle, and, hence, the slope of  τ₃( A _v)  depend only on the available water vapour, which is a small fraction of the oxygen abundance. Chemical simulation was also used to determine the adsorption sites and energies of O and OH on hydrocarbons and study the dynamics of formation of water molecules by surface reactions with gaseous H atoms, as well as their chances to stick in situ.  相似文献   

A Unified Model for Black Hole X-Ray Binary Jets?     

Rob Fender  Tomaso Belloni  Elena Gallo 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,300(1-3):1-13

We have recently put forward a ‘unified’ semi-empirical model for the coupling between accretion and jet production in galactic black hole X-ray binaries. In this paper, we summarise this model and briefly discuss relevant considerations that have arisen since its publication.  相似文献   

Report of the International Astronomical Union Division I Working Group on Precession and the Ecliptic   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. L. Hilton  N. Capitaine  J. Chapront  J. M. Ferrandiz  A. Fienga  T. Fukushima  J. Getino  P. Mathews  J.-L. Simon  M. Soffel  J. Vondrak  P. Wallace  J. Williams 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2006,94(3):351-367

The IAU Working Group on Precession and the Equinox looked at several solutions for replacing the precession part of the IAU 2000A precession–nutation model, which is not consistent with dynamical theory. These comparisons show that the (Capitaine et al., Astron. Astrophys., 412, 2003a) precession theory, P03, is both consistent with dynamical theory and the solution most compatible with the IAU 2000A nutation model. Thus, the working group recommends the adoption of the P03 precession theory for use with the IAU 2000A nutation. The two greatest sources of uncertainty in the precession theory are the rate of change of the Earth’s dynamical flattening, ΔJ₂, and the precession rates (i.e. the constants of integration used in deriving the precession). The combined uncertainties limit the accuracy in the precession theory to approximately 2 mas cent⁻². Given that there are difficulties with the traditional angles used to parameterize the precession, z_A, ζ_A, and θ_A, the working group has decided that the choice of parameters should be left to the user. We provide a consistent set of parameters that may be used with either the traditional rotation matrix, or those rotation matrices described in (Capitaine et al., Astron. Astrophys., 412, 2003a) and (Fukushima Astron. J., 126, 2003). We recommend that the ecliptic pole be explicitly defined by the mean orbital angular momentum vector of the Earth–Moon barycenter in the Barycentric Celestial Reference System (BCRS), and explicitly state that this definition is being used to avoid confusion with previous definitions of the ecliptic. Finally, we recommend that the terms precession of the equator and precession of the ecliptic replace the terms lunisolar precession and planetary precession, respectively.  相似文献   

陕西秦巴山区农业自然资源开发利用     

刘胤汉  陆立新 《山地学报》1990,(1)

农业自然资源据其在农业利用过程中的地位可分为两类:一类是生成农业自然资源的环境,另一类为可资直接利用的自然生成物(即狭义的农业自然资源)。陕西秦巴山区自然环境的主要特点是:复合山体高峻庞大,地跨暖温带和北亚热带,垂直分异明显。区内有:森林、草场、野生生物、林特产与农作物等多种农业自然资源。据此,提出了本区农业自然资源的开发利用途径。  相似文献   

On the highly reddened members in six young galactic star clusters – a multiwavelength study     

Brijesh Kumar  Ram Sagar  B. B. Sanwal  M. S. Bessell 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,353(3):991-1014

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The nature of parallax microlensing events towards the Galactic bulge     

Martin C. Smith  Vasily Belokurov  N. Wyn Evans  Shude Mao  Jin H. An 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,361(1):128-140

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The Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment: catalogue of stellar proper motions in the OGLE-II Galactic bulge fields     

T. Sumi  X. Wu  A. Udalski  M. Szyma&#;ski  M. Kubiak  G. Pietrzy&#;ski  I. Soszy&#;ski  P. Wo&#;niak  K. &#;ebru&#;  O. Szewczyk  &#;. Wyrzykowski 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,348(4):1439-1450

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Progress in Earthquake Science and Technology in China: Review and Prospects (Ⅰ)     

Chen Zhangli 《中国地震研究》2001,15(4):329-345

In the article the author looks back the hard development course and great progress in earth quake science and technology in China during the last near a half of century and expounds the following 3 aspects: (1) The strong desire of the whole society to mitigate seismic disasters and reduce the effect of earthquakes on social-economic live is a great driving force to push forward the development of earthquake science and technology in China; (2) To better ensure people‘ s life and property, sustainable economic development, and social stability is an essential purpose to drive the development of earthquake science and technology in China; and (3) To insist on the dialectical connection of setup of technical system for seismic monitoring with the scientific research of earthquakes and to better handle the relation between crucial task, current scientif ic level, and the feasibility are the important principles to advance the earthquake science and technology in China. Some success and many setbacks in earthquake disaster mitigation consistently enrich our knowledge regarding the complexity of the conditions for earthquake occurrence and the process of earthquake preparation, promote the reconstruction and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring, and deepen the scientific research of earthquakes. During the last 5 years, the improvement and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring have clearly provided the technical support to study and practice of earthquake prediction and pre caution, give prominence to key problems and broaden the field of scientific research of earth quakes. These have enabled us to get some new recognition of the conditions for earthquake oc currence and process of earthquake preparation, characteristics of seismic disaster, and mecha nism for earthquake generation in China‘s continent. The progress we have made not only en courages us to enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation, but also provides a basis for accelerating further development of earthquake science and technology in China in the new century, especially in the 10th five-year plan. Based on the history reviewed, the author sets forth a general requirement for develop ment of earthquake science and technology in China and brings out 10 aspects to be stressed and strengthened at present and in the future. These are: upgrade and setup of the network of digitized seismic observation; upgrade and setup of the network for observation of seismic pre cursors; setup of the network for observation of strong motion; setup of the laboratories for ex periment on seismic regime; establishment of technical system for seismic information, emer gency command and urgent rescue; research on short-term and imminent earthquake predic tion; research on intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction; research on attenuation of seismic ground motion, mechanism for seismic disaster, and control on seismic disaster; ba sic research fields related to seismology and geoscience. We expect that these efforts will signifi cantly elevate the level of earthquake science and technology in China to the advanced interna tional level, improve theories, techniques, and methods for earthquake precaution and predic tion, and enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation.  相似文献   

Asymptotic giant branch superwind speed at low metallicity     

Jonathan R. Marshall  Jacco Th. van Loon  Mikako Matsuura  Peter R. Wood  Albert A. Zijlstra  Patricia A. Whitelock 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,355(4):1348-1360

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