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921.
Using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) implemented at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season was evaluated. Because a finite ensemble size causes sampling error in the full forecast probability distribution function (PDF), ensemble size is closely related to the efficiency of the ensemble prediction system. Prediction capability according to doubling the ensemble size was evaluated by increasing the number of ensembles from 24 to 48 in MOGREPS implemented at the KMA. The initial analysis perturbations generated by the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) were integrated for 10 days from 22 May to 23 June 2009. Several statistical verification scores were used to measure the accuracy, reliability, and resolution of ensemble probabilistic forecasts for 24 and 48 ensemble member forecasts. Even though the results were not significant, the accuracy of ensemble prediction improved slightly as ensemble size increased, especially for longer forecast times in the Northern Hemisphere. While increasing the number of ensemble members resulted in a slight improvement in resolution as forecast time increased, inconsistent results were obtained for the scores assessing the reliability of ensemble prediction. The overall performance of ensemble prediction in terms of accuracy, resolution, and reliability increased slightly with ensemble size, especially for longer forecast times. 相似文献
922.
利用Voronoi\\Delaunay图模型影响范围和局部动态的特性,提出一种基于动态边界定量提取强降水过程空间非均匀分布特征的新方法,根据1959—2002年中国740站逐日降水资料,构建5日、10日两种时间尺度区域持续性年极端强降水过程序列,用以检验该方法的应用效果,并应用该方法分析了5日(10日)区域持续性年极端强降水过程空间非均匀分布特征及其演变规律。结果表明:与传统的数量统计方法和区域插值方法相比,该方法在强降水空间分布中心、过程内不同强度降水覆盖区域、降水集中区等的定量度量方面具有更高的分辨力和较好实际应用价值;气候趋势分析中在1959—2002年间,5日区域持续性年极端强降水过程出现日期有明显提前趋势。 相似文献
923.
应用EOF(经验正交函数)迭代方案,考虑多时次历史资料,在全球海区海温与四川盆地气温非同步联系的基础上,以海温为预报因子进行了夏季气温的长期预报。结果表明:西太平洋高温区等关键海区海温的异常对未来四川盆地夏季气温变化有重要影响,由此建立的引入多时次海温的EOF迭代长期温度预报方法,具有较强的预报能力 相似文献
924.
The structural styles can be used to analyses and predict developments and distributions of sand bodies in a rift basin. The dynamic process of faulting and sedimentation can be expressed as follow: the basin topography controlled by fault activity can control water dynamics; which in turn affect the transport and sedimentation of sediments. The corresponding analysis between structural styles and sand depositional types includes the following aspects: (1) in section, the corresponding between development of fault terraces and sand depositional types; (2) in plane, the relationship between faults' association and distributions of sand bodies. There are four types of terrace styles to be identified. They are Steep Slope Single Fault Terrace (SSSFT), Steep Slope Multiple Fault Terrace (SSMFT), Gentle Slope (GS) and Gentle Slope Multiple Fault Terrace (GSMFT), which also can be divided into six subtypes by the timing of the faults activities and the directions of their activity migrations (basinward and landward or marginward). They correspond to the following sand depositions such as alluvial fan, fan delta and turbidite fan etc.. The analysis of structure-sedimentation is a discussion on the rank Ⅲ sequence evolution under the condition of pulsing or episodic fault activities. It has been recognized four plane fault associations such as the comb, the broom, the fork and the fault-fold association as well as the corresponding sand distributions. Structural-sedimentary models above mentioned are significant for the deep oil and gas exploration when lacking of the drill data. It may reduce multiple resolutions in the interpretation of seismic-sedimentary facies and promote sand predictions through the constraints of the structural styles of the basin units. The structural-sedimentary pattern can be used as a geological model in oil and gas exploration in the rift basins. 相似文献
925.
黄河三角洲埕岛地区近年海底冲淤规律及水深预测 总被引:10,自引:1,他引:9
通过对1976~1995年黄河三角洲地区埕岛海域的水深资料以及近年来实测的水深数据的分析,确定了黄河三角洲埕岛地区在1976年黄河改道清水沟后,从三角洲推进淤积期进入了海岸冲刷改造期。按冲刷速率、剖面坡度及其与季节变化的关系可分为快速冲刷阶段(1976~1980)、缓慢冲刷阶段(1981~1992)、以冲刷为主的冲淤调整阶段(1992年至今),海岸边带的后期冲刷改造受季节性影响也比较明显。在深度上基本以15m等深线为界,深水区淤积、浅水区冲刷。通过250m×250m网格化节点的实测水深变化的时间序列,采用二维平面的趋势面拟合方法,可以较好地对本海区的水深进行拟合并做出时间序列值的预测。 相似文献
926.
工程场地动力分区评价(即地震影响小区划),是在工程场地地震危险性分析的基础上,根据场地岩土动力特征及地形地貌、地质构造条件等对地震动影响的反应程度,从而对不同类型场地的地震效应作出评价.其成果可做为建筑抗震设计、工程加固、震害预测与对策的制定及土地合理利用和总体规划布局的依据.本文以秦皇岛市青龙县城工程场地为例,进行了工程场地动力特征研究与分区评价及震害预测(即工程场地地震影响小区划)。 相似文献
927.
选取旱、涝、震灾害之间的一步转移概率作为B-P人工神经网络训练样本的输入信息,建立了四川旱、涝、震的人工神经网络灾型预测模型。B-P网络模型应用于实例预测结果与用主分量分析法的趋势预测结果精度接近。 相似文献
928.
The paper describes prediction of thermal conductivity in terrestrial soil media. The model operates statistically by probability of occurrence for contacts between particular fractional compounds. It combines physical properties, specific to particular compounds, into one apparent conductance specific to the mixture. The concept of substituting grain compounds by hypothetical spheres is an essential tool to control porosity by the number of spheres, their radii and probability of contacts between them. The spheres are equal in radii. The spheres substitute compounds, regardless of the phase state. Control of particular phase states is possible by means of specific properties assigned to the spheres, at the input to the model. Performance of the model is successfully proved for many diverse terrestrial soil media in a wide range of bulk density, composition, water and water vapour content. Only the compounds of sand decline from the expected values and require introducing a correction to the thermal conductivity of sand grains. One possible explanation is that the thermal conductivity of sand is uncertain. Nevertheless, the model is useful and worth extending beyond terrestrial purposes. 相似文献
929.
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??????????????????????????о????40????????????????????α估GPS????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????£????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????顢???塢???????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????1??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????鵽????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????SOC??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????е????????? 相似文献
930.