The impact of climate change on U. K. river flows: A preliminary comparison of two generations of probabilistic climate projections     

Alison Lindsey Kay  Glenn Watts  Steven C. Wells  Stuart Allen 《水文研究》2020,34(4):1081-1088

The impacts of climate change on future river flows are a growing concern. Typically, impacts are simulated by driving hydrological models with climate model ensemble data. The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) provided probabilistic projections, enabling a risk-based approach to decision-making under climate change. Recently, an update was released—UKCP18—so there is a need for information on how impacts may differ. The probabilistic projections from UKCP18 and UKCP09 are here applied using the change factor method with catchment-based hydrological modelling for 10 catchments across England. Projections of changes in median, mean, high, and low flows are made for the 2050s, using the A1B emissions scenario from UKCP09 and UKCP18 as well as the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios from UCKP18. The results show that, in all catchments for all flow measures, the central estimate of change under UKCP18 is similar to that from UKCP09 (A1B emissions). However, the probabilistic uncertainty ranges from UKCP18 are, in all cases, greater than from UKCP09, despite UKCP18 having a smaller ensemble size than UKCP09. Although there are differences between the central estimates of change using UKCP18 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and A1B emissions, there is considerable overlap in the uncertainty ranges. The results suggest that existing assessments of hydrological impacts remain relevant, though it will be necessary to evaluate sensitive decisions using the latest projections. The analysis will aid development of advice to users of current guidance based on UKCP09 and help make decisions about the prioritization of further hydrological impacts work using UKCP18, which should also apply other products from UKCP18 like the 12-km regional data.  相似文献   

Using response surfaces to estimate impacts of climate change on flood peaks: assessment of uncertainty          下载免费PDF全文

A. L. Kay  S. M. Crooks  N. S. Reynard 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5273-5287

The potential impacts of climate change are an increasing focus of research, and ever‐larger climate projection ensembles are available, making standard impact assessments more onerous. An alternative way of estimating impacts involves response surfaces, which present the change in a given indicator for a large number of plausible climatic changes defined on a regular sensitivity domain. Sets of climate change projections can then be overlaid on the response surface and impacts estimated from the nearest corresponding points of the sensitivity domain, providing a powerful method for fast impact estimation for multiple projections and locations. However, the effect of assumptions necessary for initial response surface development must be assessed. This paper assesses the uncertainty introduced by use of a sensitivity framework for estimating changes in 20‐year return period flood peaks in Britain. This sensitivity domain involves mean annual and seasonal precipitation changes, and a number of simplifications were necessary for consistency and to reduce dimensionality. The effect of these is investigated for nine catchments across Britain, representing nine typical response surfaces (response types), using three sets of climate projections. The results show that catchments can have different causes of uncertainty and some catchments have an overall higher level of uncertainty than others. These differences are compatible with the underlying climatological and hydrological differences between the response types, giving confidence in generalization of the results. This enables the development of uncertainty allowances by response type, to be used alongside the response surfaces to provide more robust impact estimates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A new pseudocylindrical equal-area projection for adaptive composite map projections     

Bojan Šavrič  Bernhard Jenny 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(12):2373-2389

The recently introduced adaptive composite map projection technique changes the projection to the geographic area shown on a map. It is meant as a replacement for the commonly used web Mercator projection, which grossly distorts areas when representing the entire world. The original equal-area version of the adaptive composite map projection technique uses the Lambert azimuthal projection for regional maps and three alternative projections for world maps. Adaptive composite map projections can include a variety of other equal-area projections when the transformation between the Lambert azimuthal and the world projections uses Wagner’s method. To select the most suitable pseudocylindrical projection, the distortion characteristics of a pseudocylindrical projection family are analyzed, and a user study among experts in the area of map projections is carried out. Based on the results of the distortion analysis and the user study, a new pseudocylindrical projection is recommended for extending adaptive composite map projections. The new projection is equal-area throughout the transformation to the Lambert azimuthal projection and has better distortion characteristics then small-scale projections currently included in the adaptive composite map projection technique.  相似文献   

Projection of Extreme Temperatures in Hong Kong in the 21st Century          下载免费PDF全文

LEE Tsz-cheung  CHAN Kin-yu  GINN Wing-lui 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(1):1-20

The possible changes in the frequency of extreme temperature events in Hong Kong in the 21st century were investigated by statistically downscaling 26 sets of the daily global climate model projections (a combination of 11 models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1) of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The models’ performance in simulating the past climate during 1971–2000 has also been verified and discussed. The verification revealed that the models in general have an acceptable skill in reproducing past statistics of extreme temperature events. Moreover, the models are more skillful in simulating the past climate of the hot nights and cold days than that of the very hot days. The projection results suggested that, in the 21st century, the frequency of occurrence of extremely high temperature events in Hong Kong would increase significantly while that of the extremely low temperature events is expected to drop significantly. Based on the multi-model scenario ensemble mean, the average annual numbers of very hot days and hot nights in Hong Kong are expected to increase significantly from 9 days and 16 nights in 1980–1999 to 89 days and 137 nights respectively in 2090–2099. On the other hand, the average annual number of cold days will drop from 17 days in 1980–1999 to about 1 day in 2090–2099. About 65 percent of the model-scenario combinations indicate that there will be on average less than one cold day in 2090–2099. While all the model-emission scenarios in general have projected consistent trends in the change of temperature extremes in the 21st century, there is a large divergence in the projections between difierent model/emission scenarios. This reflects that there are still large uncertainties in the model simulation of the future climate of extreme temperature events.  相似文献   

双投影矩阵模型的方向关系组合推理研究     

顾卫杰  刘永山 《测绘科学技术学报》2014,(5)

将三维空间中的参照物体分别向xoy和xoz平面投影,得到的最小外接矩形将两个平面都划分成9个区域,用两个三行三列矩阵联合表示目标物体投影与两个参考区域的相交情况,据此提出了双投影方向关系矩阵模型。基于该模型,利用矩阵的计算性能,提出了一种三维空间方向关系的组合推理方法,解决了方向关系的组合推理问题。  相似文献   

Code as Cartography     

《The Cartographic journal》2013,50(2):129-135

Abstract

Provincial Atlas of People's Republic of China (Chung hua ien min kung wo kuo fên shêng di t'u chi). 190 x 265 mm. pp. 251 (84 pages of maps). Peking: Map Publishing Society (di t'u ch'u p'an shê), China, Oct., 1974. 6.30 Yuan  相似文献   

New measures for analysis and comparison of shape distortion in world map projections     

Melih Basaraner  Sinan Cetinkaya 《制图学和地理信息科学》2013,40(6):518-531

ABSTRACT

World maps can have quite different depictions of reality depending on the projection adopted, and this can influence our perception of the world. In this respect, shape is a significant property that needs to be considered, especially when representing large regions in general-purpose world maps. A map projection distorts most geometric properties (area, distance, direction/angle, shape, and specific curves) and usually preserves a single property or provides a compromise between different properties when transforming terrestrial features from globe to plane. The distortions are mainly classified based on area, distance and direction/angle and analyzed with Tissot’s theorem. However, this theorem offers a local (pointwise) solution, so the distortion assessment is valid at infinitesimal scale (i.e. for very small regions). For this reason, different approaches are required to analyze the distortions at finite scale (i.e. for larger regions). However, there are very few attempts at analyzing and comparing shape distortion of landmasses in world map projections owing to the fact that shape measurement is difficult and usually involves measuring different characteristics. Seeking to fill this gap, in this study, compactness and elongation distortion measures are introduced. In this regard, 16 world map projections are analyzed and compared with these distortion measures in a GIS environment, based on map datasets of continents and countries. An analysis of the effect of the levels of detail of the datasets is also presented.  相似文献   

PRODUCTIVITY OF AMERICAN PH.D.-GRANTING DEPARTMENTS OF GEOGRAPHY     

《The Professional geographer》2013,65(1):85-89

Reviews of geographic software in this article:

DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS.

ESP

GAUSS.

CEMODEL S. Damus

LIMDEP. William H. Greene

MICROSTAT 4.1

OTIS

PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System). H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS)

SPSS/PC+

URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)  相似文献   

Hydrological projections of future climate change over the source region of Yellow River and Yangtze River in the Tibetan Plateau: A comprehensive assessment by coupling RegCM4 and VIC model          下载免费PDF全文

Wenjun Lu  Weiguang Wang  Quanxi Shao  Zhongbo Yu  Zhenchun Hao  Wanqiu Xing  Bin Yong  Jinxing Li 《水文研究》2018,32(13):2096-2117

Understanding climate change impacts on hydrological regime and assessing future water supplies are essential to effective water resources management and planning, which is particularly true for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change. In this study, future climate change in the TP was projected for 2041–2060 by a high‐resolution regional climate model, RegCM4, under 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Response of all key hydrological elements, that is, evapotranspiration, surface run‐off, baseflow, and snowmelt, to future climate in 2 typical catchments, the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, was further investigated by the variable infiltration capacity microscale hydrological model incorporated with a 2‐layer energy balance snow model and a frozen soil/permafrost algorithm at a 0.25°×0.25° spatial scale. The results reveal that (a) spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature from RegCM4 agree fairly well with the data from China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, indicating that RegCM4 well reproduces historical climatic information and thus is reliable to support future projection; (b) precipitation increase by 0–70% and temperature rise by 1–4 °C would occur in the TP under 3 RCPs. A clear south‐eastern–north‐western spatial increasing gradient in precipitation would be seen. Besides, under RCP8.5, the peak increase in temperature would approach to 4 °C in spring and autumn in the east of the TP; (c) evapotranspiration would increase by 10–60% in 2 source regions due to the temperature rise, surface run‐off and baseflow in higher elevation region would experience larger increase dominantly due to the precipitation increase, and streamflow would display general increases by more than 3% and 5% in the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, respectively; (d) snowmelt contributes 11.1% and 16.2% to total run‐off in the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, respectively, during the baseline period. In the source region of Yangtze River, snowmelt run‐off would become more important with increase of 17.5% and 18.3%, respectively, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 but decrease of 15.0% under RCP8.5.  相似文献   

SRES A1B情景下德令哈盆地2016-2075年气候变化预估     

刘波  刘金胜  束龙仓  李修仓  鲁程鹏  刘晓雪 《干旱区地理》2015,38(2):232-238

利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式SRES A1B气候情景下预估2016-2075年间60 a的气温及降水资料,通过分析其总体趋势、年代际变化及突变特征,研究德令哈盆地未来气候的变化趋势。预估结果显示：2016-2075年,德令哈盆地气温将可能呈上升趋势,四季及年平均气温的变化总体上基本保持一致,上升幅度在3～4 ℃之间,其中夏季和全年的增温速率相对较大;降水量在未来60 a将基本保持平稳,有微弱的下降趋势,年际间变化以夏季最为显著,降水不均将易导致极端气候事件的发生;无论气温还是降水,预估未来都将有突变发生,气温将在2035年前后发生一次突变,降水量则分别在2030 s末和2040 s初各发生一次突变。  相似文献