灰色稳健总体最小二乘估计及高铁路基变形预测     

陈洋  文鸿雁  覃辉  王清涛  周吕 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(2):140-146

最小二乘估计和部分变量误差模型的总体最小二乘估计不具备抵御粗差的能力。鉴于粗差可能同时出现在灰色白化微分方程的观测值和系数矩阵中,本文提出基于IGGⅢ抗差方案的部分变量总体最小二乘稳健估计。结合仿真数据和高铁路基观测数据,系统地比较稳健最小二乘、部分变量总体最小二乘、本文算法参数估计结果和算法稳定性。结果表明,本文算法预测精度高,可以应用到高铁路基沉降预测中。  相似文献   

大鹏澳养殖区柱状沉积物中氮、磷的分布特征及污染状况研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

黄小平  郭芳  黄良民 《热带海洋学报》2010,29(1):91-97

为研究海水养殖对海湾沉积物的累积影响, 对大亚湾的大鹏澳养殖区沉积物柱状样中总氮、总磷和有机碳的含量及剖面分布特征进行了研究, 并探讨了海水养殖区沉积物中氮、磷的污染状况。结果表明, 网箱养殖区、贝类养殖区和对照区等3个区域柱状样中总氮的含量范围分别为638.2—3803.9mg.kg-1、740.9—2152.1mg.kg-1和343.2—471.9mg.kg-1, 总磷的含量范围分别为344.7—3233.9mg.kg-1、297.9—497.5mg.kg-1和650.2—1327.2 mg.kg-1, 有机碳的含量范围分别为0.96%—2.22%、0.87%—1.13%和0.69%—0.95%。该三个因子的含量均从底层至表层呈增加趋势, 但网箱养殖区上层增加幅度最为剧烈, 贝类区次之, 对照区变化幅度最小。所有柱状样中, 总氮含量均超标, 但网箱养殖区总氮污染最为严重, 贝类养殖区次之, 对照区最轻; 网箱养殖区的总磷在上层的不同深度超标, 而贝类养殖区及对照区柱状样的总磷含量均未超标。  相似文献   

利用相关逼近法建立定位与姿态数据的同步模型     

齐珺  暴景阳  周丰年  崔扬  冯金涛 《海洋测绘》2010,30(2):28-31

根据海道测量精密测量的需求,对姿态与定位数据融合的同步方法进行了研究。通过GPS大地高数据和升沉数据,建立了一种基于相关逼近原理的定位与姿态数据同步模型。该模型能够确定定位与姿态数据的相对延时,实现两类数据在同一时间基准下的同步。实例计算表明,定位与姿态数据的相对延迟时间已成为两类数据融合应用中必须考虑的因素。由同步模型解算后,GPS大地高数据与总升沉数据体现了更好的一致性,由此也验证了模型的有效性。  相似文献   

酸溶法测定硫铁矿中的全硫   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨明香  钟蓓 《贵州地质》2007,24(3):242-243

在野外地质队实验室仪器少的条件下,用酸溶的方法分析硫铁矿中全硫,简单、快速、易操作,取得良好的结果。  相似文献   

全国重要矿产总量预测方法   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

肖克炎  张晓  李景朝  杨毅衡  陈建平  丁建  娄德波  王保良  叶天竺  张立新 《地学前缘》2007,14(5):20-26

全国重要矿产资源评价涉及25种重要矿产的近百种矿床类型,需要在1∶20万尺度水平圈定成矿预测远景区,并科学估算各远景区资源量,为国家矿产资源战略勘查和战略部署提供技术支撑。为了保证预测成果在同一层面上进行全国汇总,制定了全国一致的、标准的技术要求和方法。通过对中国以往一轮、二轮区划预测方法、全国矿产资源总量预测方法及国外最新预测方法的分析和总结,结合近年来预测理论的新发展,确定了全国重要矿产总量预测的理论基础是成矿系列理论、现代成矿动力学理论和综合信息矿产预测理论,采用的预测思路是矿床模型综合地质信息预测方法。文章陈述了总量预测的方法流程和预测技术要求,有关方法思路可供资源评价人员参考。  相似文献   

Daily variability of river concentrations and fluxes: indicators based on the segmentation of the rating curve     

Michel Meybeck  Florentina Moatar 《水文研究》2012,26(8):1188-1207

The variability of water chemistry on a daily scale is rarely addressed due to the lack of records. Appropriate tools, such as typologies and dimensionless indicators, which permit comparisons between stations and between river materials, are missing. Such tools are developed here for daily concentrations (C), specific fluxes or yields (Y) and specific river flow (q). The data set includes 128 long‐term daily records, for suspended particulate matter (SPM), total dissolved solids (TDS), dissolved and total nutrients, totalling 1236 years of records. These 86 river basins (10³–10⁶ km²) cover a wide range of environmental conditions in semi‐arid and temperate regions. The segmentation—truncation of C–q rating curves into two parts at median flows (q₅₀) generates two exponents (b_50inf and b_50sup) that are different for 66% of the analysed rating curves. After segmentation, the analysis of records results in the definition of nine major C–q types combining concentrating, diluting or stable patterns, showing inflexions, chevron and U shapes. SPM and TDS are preferentially distributed among a few types, while dissolved and total nutrients are more widely distributed. Four dimensionless indicators of daily variability combine median (C₅₀, Y₅₀), extreme (C₉₉, Y₉₉) and flow‐weighted (C*, Y*) concentrations and yields (e.g. C₉₉/C₅₀, Y*/Y₅₀). They vary over two to four orders of magnitude in the analysed records, discriminating stations and river material. A second set of four indicators of relative variability [e.g. (Y*/Y₅₀)/(q*/q₅₀)], takes into account the daily flow variability, as expressed by q*/q₅₀ and q₉₉/q₅₀, which also vary over multiple orders of magnitude. The truncated exponent b_50sup is used to describe fluxes at higher flows accounting for 75% (TDS) to 97% (SPM) of interannual fluxes. It ranges from ? 0·61 to + 1·86 in the database. It can be regarded as the key amplificator (positive b_50sup) or reductor (negative b_50sup) of concentrations or yields variability. C₅₀, Y₅₀, b_50sup can also be estimated in discrete surveys, which provides a new perspective for quantifying and mapping water quality variability at daily scale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the transfer of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere near the north pole     

Samuel J. Oltmans  Wolfgang E. Raatz  Walter D. Komhyr 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1989,9(1-3):245-253

A series of nearly daily ozone vertical profiles obtained at station T-3 on Fletcher's Ice Island (85°N, 90°W) during the period January-March 1971 shows several significant ozone intrusions into the troposphere. These intrusions are not only associated with enhanced ozone amounts in the stratosphere but also require tropopause folding events to transport ozone into the troposphere. These folds in the Arctic tropopause appear to be capable of contributing significantly to the ozone budget of the Arctic troposphere during the late winter and spring seasons. The importance of tropopause folding for bringing ozone into the troposphere seen in the daily ozone profiles confirms the results found in the Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program aircraft flights.  相似文献   

Responses of the tropospheric ozone and odd hydrogen radicals to column ozone change     

S. C. Liu  M. Trainer 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1988,6(3):221-233

The response of tropospheric ozone to a change in solar UV penetration due to perturbation on column ozone depends critically on the tropospheric NO _x (NO+NO₂) concentration. At high NO _x or a polluted area where there is net ozone production, a decrease in column ozone will increase the solar UV penetration to the troposphere and thus increase the tropospheric ozone concentration. However, the opposite will occur, for example, at a remote oceanic area where NO _x is so low that there is net ozone destruction. This finding may have important implication on the interpretation of the long term trend of tropospheric ozone. A change in column ozone will also induce change in tropospheric OH, HO₂, and H₂O₂ concentrations which are major oxidants in the troposphere. Thus, the oxidation capacity and, in turn, the abundances of many reduced gases will be perturbed. Our model calculations show that the change in OH, HO₂, and H₂O₂ concentrations are essentially independent of the NO _x concentration.  相似文献   

Toward an improved global network for determination of tropospheric ozone climatology and trends     

Ronald G. Prinn 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1988,6(3):281-298

An examination of typical tropospheric ozone variability on daily, monthly, annual and interannual timescales and instrumental precision indicates that the current ozonesonde network is insufficient to detect a trend in tropospheric ozone of 1% per year at the 2 level even at stations with records a decade in length. From a trend prediction analysis we conclude that in order to detect a 1% per year trend in a decade or less it will be necessary to decrease the time between observations from its present value of 3–7 days to 1 day or less. The spatial distribution of the current ozonesonde stations is also inadequate for determining the global climatology of ozone. We present a quantitative theory taking into account photochemistry, surface deposition, and wind climatology to define the effectively sampled region for an observing station which, used in conjunction with the instrumental precision and the above prediction analysis, forms the basis for defining a suitable global network for determining regional and global ozone climatology and trends. At least a doubling of the present number of stations is necessary, and the oceans, most of Asia, Africa, and South America are areas where more stations are most needed. Differential absorption lidar ozone instruments have the potential for far more frequent measurements of ozone vertical profiles and hence potentially more accurate climatology and trend determinations than feasible with ozonesondes but may produce a (fair weather) biased data set above the cloud base. A strategy for cloudy regions in which either each station utilizes both lidars and sondes or each station is in fact a doublet comprised of a near-sea-level lidar and a proximal-mountain-top lidar could serve to minimize this bias.  相似文献   

长江流域旱涝典型年大气水汽输送   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

高国栋  翟盘茂 《水科学进展》1993,4(1):10-16

利用我国125个探空站一日两次自地面至100hpa共11个层次上的观测资料,对长江流域典型夏涝年(1980年)和夏旱年(1985年)我国大气中水汽总输送场、涡动输送场及散度场进行了计算分析。结果表明:当水汽总输送场从西北、西南和东南三支气流携带的水汽交汇于长江流域,且整个水汽输送场稳定持久,则在水汽辐合带附近导致大量降水,形成洪涝;反之,当三支气流微弱不稳定,不能形成水汽辐合带条件,则形成干旱。涡动输送亦反映出类似的特征。稳定且强盛的西南气流水汽输送是形成降水的主要条件和原因。  相似文献