GRADATION AND ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGE DEGREE OF NATURAL LANDSCAPE IN XING, AN COUNTY, GUANGXI     

李家永  李昌华 《中国地理科学(英文版)》1992,(4)

A new technique designed to help quantify the degree of damage to the landscape from one area to another shows a close relationship between population density and the degree of landscape damage. The technique establishes a scale of damage from 0 to 5 (zero = no damage; 5 = severe damage) using data from aerial photographs, land-use maps, and field data. The related formula allows one to compare the relative degree of damage across regions using a combination of an absolute index, a theoretical index, a relative index, and population density. Xing'an County is used to demonstrate the technique.  相似文献   

Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams     

Roberto Mínguez  Fernando Delgado  Ignacio Escuder  Manuel G. de Membrillera 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2006,30(10):1019-1037

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Progress in Earthquake Science and Technology in China: Review and Prospects (Ⅰ)     

Chen Zhangli 《中国地震研究》2001,15(4):329-345

In the article the author looks back the hard development course and great progress in earth quake science and technology in China during the last near a half of century and expounds the following 3 aspects: (1) The strong desire of the whole society to mitigate seismic disasters and reduce the effect of earthquakes on social-economic live is a great driving force to push forward the development of earthquake science and technology in China; (2) To better ensure people‘ s life and property, sustainable economic development, and social stability is an essential purpose to drive the development of earthquake science and technology in China; and (3) To insist on the dialectical connection of setup of technical system for seismic monitoring with the scientific research of earthquakes and to better handle the relation between crucial task, current scientif ic level, and the feasibility are the important principles to advance the earthquake science and technology in China. Some success and many setbacks in earthquake disaster mitigation consistently enrich our knowledge regarding the complexity of the conditions for earthquake occurrence and the process of earthquake preparation, promote the reconstruction and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring, and deepen the scientific research of earthquakes. During the last 5 years, the improvement and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring have clearly provided the technical support to study and practice of earthquake prediction and pre caution, give prominence to key problems and broaden the field of scientific research of earth quakes. These have enabled us to get some new recognition of the conditions for earthquake oc currence and process of earthquake preparation, characteristics of seismic disaster, and mecha nism for earthquake generation in China‘s continent. The progress we have made not only en courages us to enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation, but also provides a basis for accelerating further development of earthquake science and technology in China in the new century, especially in the 10th five-year plan. Based on the history reviewed, the author sets forth a general requirement for develop ment of earthquake science and technology in China and brings out 10 aspects to be stressed and strengthened at present and in the future. These are: upgrade and setup of the network of digitized seismic observation; upgrade and setup of the network for observation of seismic pre cursors; setup of the network for observation of strong motion; setup of the laboratories for ex periment on seismic regime; establishment of technical system for seismic information, emer gency command and urgent rescue; research on short-term and imminent earthquake predic tion; research on intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction; research on attenuation of seismic ground motion, mechanism for seismic disaster, and control on seismic disaster; ba sic research fields related to seismology and geoscience. We expect that these efforts will signifi cantly elevate the level of earthquake science and technology in China to the advanced interna tional level, improve theories, techniques, and methods for earthquake precaution and predic tion, and enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation.  相似文献   

拉格朗日插值法在渔业资源评估上的应用     

陈文河  邵青 《广东海洋大学学报》2003,23(6):35-38

应用拉格朗日插值法拟合鱼类体长与体重之间的函数关系 ,使用计算机VB语言进行编写程序 ,与常用的线性回归法、Ricker法进行比较 ,得出体长与体重的关系式为Pn(x) =∑nk=0yklk(x)=∑nk=0(∏nj=0j≠kx-xjxk-xj)yk 。  相似文献   

FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF CONTAINER TRANSPORTATION MODES ALONG THE CHANGJIANG RIVER MAIN LINE AND ITS DELTA AREA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANGShi-yu XIAOHan-liang 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):259-261

The Changjiang River (Yangtze) is one of the fastest growth areas of container transportation in Chi-na. Rail, road and water transportation have competed against each other for container transportation in the Chang-jiang River main line and its delta area. It is of significance to assess these different transportation modes scientifi-cally in order to organize container transportation efficiently in this area and make decision for integral plan and construction of transportation system in this area. This paper outlines application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to appraise different modes of typical direction of containers. Twelve assessment indexes were decided. Membership functions were formulated. Evaluation results indicated that road transportation was optimal mode in the Changjiang River delta area, however water transportation was the primary way in the Changjiang River main line.  相似文献   

Age estimates of coastal terraces in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and their tectonic implications     

Kusala Rajendran  C.P. Rajendran  Anil Earnest  G.V. Ravi Prasad  K. Dutta  D.K. Ray  R. Anu 《Tectonophysics》2008,455(1-4):53-60

The great Indian Ocean earthquake of December 26, 2004 caused significant vertical changes in its rupture zone. About 800 km of the rupture is along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which forms the outer arc ridge of the subduction zone. Coseismic deformation along the exposed land could be observed as uplift/subsidence. Here we analyze the morphological features along the coast of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, in an effort to reconstruct the past tectonics, taking cues from the coseismic effects. We obtained radiocarbon dates from coastal terraces of the island belt and used them to compute uplift rates, which vary from 1.33 mm yr^− 1 in the Little Andaman to 2.80 mm yr^− 1 in South Andaman and 2.45 mm yr^− 1 in the North Andaman. Our radiocarbon dates converge on  600 yr and  1000 yr old coastal uplifts, which we attribute to the level changes due to two major previous subduction earthquakes in the region.  相似文献   

Nonlinear dynamic finite element simulation of Alibey earth dam     

Bilge Siyahi  Haydar Arslan 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(1):77-85

In this study, dynamic behavior and earthquake resistance of Alibey earth dam was investigated. The dam was modeled with four node plane-strain finite elements (FE) and displacement-pore pressure coupled FE analyses were performed. Nonlinear material models such as pressure dependent and independent multi yield materials were implemented during the analyses. Transient dynamic FE analyses were performed with Newmark method. The Newton-Raphson solution scheme was adopted to solve the equations. Liquefaction and/or cyclic mobility effects were considered during the analysis. For the FE analyses, OpenSees (Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation) framework was adopted.  相似文献   

Mineralogy and geochemistry of the Texeo Cu–Co mine site (NW Spain): screening tools for environmental assessment     

J. Loredo  R. Álvarez  A. Ordóñez  T. Bros 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(6):1299-1310

The Cu–Co–Ni Texeo mine has been the most important source of Cu in NW Spain since Roman times and now, approximately 40,000 m³ of wastes from mine and metallurgical operations, containing average concentrations of 9,263 mg kg⁻¹ Cu, 1,100 mg kg⁻¹ As, 549 mg kg⁻¹ Co, and 840 mg kg⁻¹ Ni, remain on-site. Since the cessation of the activity, the abandoned works, facilities and waste piles have been posing a threat to the environment, derived from the release of toxic elements. In order to assess the potential environmental pollution caused by the mining operations, a sequential sampling strategy was undertaken in wastes, soil, surface and groundwater, and sediments. First, screening field tools were used to identify hotspots, before defining formal sampling strategies; so, in the areas where anomalies were detected in a first sampling stage, a second detailed sampling campaign was undertaken. Metal concentrations in the soils are highly above the local background, reaching up to 9,921 mg kg⁻¹ Cu, 1,373 mg kg⁻¹ As, 685 mg kg⁻¹ Co, and 1,040 mg kg⁻¹ Ni, among others. Copper concentrations downstream of the mine works reach values up to 1,869 μg l⁻¹ and 240 mg kg⁻¹ in surface water and stream sediments, respectively. Computer-based risk assessment for the site gives a carcinogenic risk associated with the presence of As in surface waters and soils, and a health risk for long exposures; so, trigger levels of these elements are high enough to warrant further investigation.  相似文献   

Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Marcel Hürlimann  Dieter Rickenmann  Vicente Medina  Allen Bateman 《Engineering Geology》2008,102(3-4):152

Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue.  相似文献   

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?     

Jens-Uwe Klügel   《Earth》2008,88(1-2):1-32

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.  相似文献