雅砻江流域主汛期降水长期预报的一种方法     

赵守尧 《成都信息工程学院学报》1994,(1)

本文使用天气学方法，从影响雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的长期预报有关因子出发，再运用数理统计方法反复筛选，仅取３个主要因子：西部青藏高原８个站冬春积温，北部冬季极涡面积指数，南部冬季印缅槽平均强度，建立逐步回归预报方程。结果显示：对主汛期６～９月降水量预报拟合准确率为１６／１７即约９４％。回归分析中发现：尽管西太平洋副热带高压对盆地西部降水有很大影响，盛夏且与高原积温有较密切相关，但由放大范围长时段的青藏高原积温，对于雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的影响超过西太平洋副热高压，因而在逐步回归过程中，副高因子仍被剔除．  相似文献   

Progress in Earthquake Science and Technology in China: Review and Prospects (Ⅰ)     

Chen Zhangli 《中国地震研究》2001,15(4):329-345

In the article the author looks back the hard development course and great progress in earth quake science and technology in China during the last near a half of century and expounds the following 3 aspects: (1) The strong desire of the whole society to mitigate seismic disasters and reduce the effect of earthquakes on social-economic live is a great driving force to push forward the development of earthquake science and technology in China; (2) To better ensure people‘ s life and property, sustainable economic development, and social stability is an essential purpose to drive the development of earthquake science and technology in China; and (3) To insist on the dialectical connection of setup of technical system for seismic monitoring with the scientific research of earthquakes and to better handle the relation between crucial task, current scientif ic level, and the feasibility are the important principles to advance the earthquake science and technology in China. Some success and many setbacks in earthquake disaster mitigation consistently enrich our knowledge regarding the complexity of the conditions for earthquake occurrence and the process of earthquake preparation, promote the reconstruction and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring, and deepen the scientific research of earthquakes. During the last 5 years, the improvement and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring have clearly provided the technical support to study and practice of earthquake prediction and pre caution, give prominence to key problems and broaden the field of scientific research of earth quakes. These have enabled us to get some new recognition of the conditions for earthquake oc currence and process of earthquake preparation, characteristics of seismic disaster, and mecha nism for earthquake generation in China‘s continent. The progress we have made not only en courages us to enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation, but also provides a basis for accelerating further development of earthquake science and technology in China in the new century, especially in the 10th five-year plan. Based on the history reviewed, the author sets forth a general requirement for develop ment of earthquake science and technology in China and brings out 10 aspects to be stressed and strengthened at present and in the future. These are: upgrade and setup of the network of digitized seismic observation; upgrade and setup of the network for observation of seismic pre cursors; setup of the network for observation of strong motion; setup of the laboratories for ex periment on seismic regime; establishment of technical system for seismic information, emer gency command and urgent rescue; research on short-term and imminent earthquake predic tion; research on intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction; research on attenuation of seismic ground motion, mechanism for seismic disaster, and control on seismic disaster; ba sic research fields related to seismology and geoscience. We expect that these efforts will signifi cantly elevate the level of earthquake science and technology in China to the advanced interna tional level, improve theories, techniques, and methods for earthquake precaution and predic tion, and enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation.  相似文献   

Rhombic Cell Analysis. Ⅱ. Application to the IRAS／PSCz Catalogue     

Tao Kiang  Yong-Feng Wu  Xing-Fen Zhu Dunsink Observatory Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies Dublin Ireland Center for Astrophysics  University of Science  Technology of China  Hefei 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2004,4(3):209-220

Rhombic cell analysis as outlined in the first paper of the present seriesis applied to samples of varying depths and liming luminosities of the IRAS/PSCzCatalogue. Numerical indices are introduced to summarize essential information.Because of the discrete nature of the analysis and of the space distribution of galax-ies, the indices for a given sample must be regarded as each having an irreduciblescatter. Despite the scatter, the mean indices show remarkable variations acrossthe samples. The underlying factor for the variations is shown to be the limitingluminosity rather than the sampling depth. As samples of more and more luminousgalaxies are considered over a range of some 2.5 magnitudes (a factor of some 75in space density), the morphology of the filled and empty regions defined by thegalaxies degrades steadily towards insignificance, and the degrading is faster for thefilled than the empty region.  相似文献   

⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and oxygen isotope studies of polymetamorphism from Tinos Island, Cycladic blueschist belt, Greece     

M. BRÖCKER  H. KREUZER  A. MATTHEWS  M. OKRUSCH 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》1993,11(2):223-240

Abstract Petrological, oxygen isotope and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar studies were used to constrain the Tertiary metamorphic evolution of the lower tectonic unit of the Cyclades on Tinos. Polyphase high-pressure metamorphism reached pressures in excess of 15 kbar, based on measurements of the Si content in potassic white mica. Temperatures of 450–500° C at the thermal peak of high-pressure metamorphism were estimated from critical metamorphic assemblages, the validity of which is confirmed by a quartz–magnetite oxygen isotope temperature of 470° C. Some ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar spectra of white mica give plateau ages of 44–40 Ma that are considered to represent dynamic recrystallization under peak or slightly post-peak high-pressure metamorphic conditions. Early stages in the prograde high-pressure evolution may be documented by older apparent ages in the high-temperature steps of some spectra. Eclogite to epidote blueschist facies mineralogies were partially or totally replaced by retrograde greenschist facies assemblages during exhumation. Oxygen isotope thermometry of four quartz–magnetite pairs from greenschist samples gives temperatures of 440–470° C which cannot be distinguished from those deduced for the high-pressure event. The exhumation and overprint is documented by decreasing ages of 32–28 Ma in some greenschists and late-stage blueschist rocks, and ages of 30–20 Ma in the lower temperature steps of the Ar release patterns of blueschist micas. Almost flat parts of Ar–Ar release spectra of some greenschist micas gave ages of 23–21 Ma which are assumed to represent incomplete resetting caused by a renewed prograde phase of greenschist metamorphism. Oxygen isotope compositions of blueschist and greenschist facies minerals show no evidence for the infiltration of a δ¹⁸O-enriched fluid. Rather, the compositions indicate that fluid to rock ratios were very low, the isotopic compositions being primarily controlled by those of the protolith rocks. We assume that the fundamental control catalysing the transformation of blueschists into greenschists and the associated resetting of their isotopic systems was the selective infiltration of metamorphic fluid. A quartz–magnetite sample from a contact metamorphic skarn, taken near the Miocene monzogranite of Tinos, gave an oxygen isotope temperature of 555° C and calculated water composition of 9.1%. The value of δ¹⁸O obtained from this water is consistent with a primary magmatic fluid, but is lower than that of fluids associated with the greenschist overprint, which indicates that the latter event cannot be directly related to the monozogranite intrusion.  相似文献   

武汉区域气象中心数值预报业务并行计算机系统     

龚贤创  范宏飞  余康庆  王宏记 《成都信息工程学院学报》2002,17(4):236-239

对武汉区域气象中心并行计算机系统进行了详细地介绍，分析了并行计算机体系结构、网络和存储系统特点；给出了在并行计算机SP上实现数值预报业务并行化的部分结果；对数值预报模式在串、并行编程环境下的结果进行了分析比较。  相似文献   

Challenging a Paradigm: Do We Need Active and Inactive Areas to Account for Near-Nuclear Jet Activity?     

Crifo  J.-F.  Rodionov  A. V.  Szegö  K.  Fulle  M. 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2002,90(1-4):227-238

We briefly describe an advanced 3D gas dynamical model developed for the simulation of theenvironment of active cometary nuclei. The model canhandle realistic nucleus shapes and alternative physical models for the gas and dust production mechanism.The inner gas coma structure is computed by solving self-consistently(a) near to the surface the Boltzman Equation(b) outside of it, Euler or Navier-Stokes equations.The dust distribution is computed from multifluid ``zero-temperature' Euler equations,extrapolated with the help of a Keplerian fountain model.The evolution of the coma during the nucleus orbital and spin motion,is computed as a succession of quasi-steady solutions. Earlier versions of the model using simple,``paedagogic' nuclei have demonstrated that the surface orographyand the surface inhomogeneity contribute similarly to structuring the near-nucleusgas and dust coma,casting a shadow on the automatic attribution of such structures to ``active areas'.The model was recently applied to comet P/Halley, for whichthe nucleus shape is available. In the companion paper of this volume,we show that most near-nucleus dust structuresobserved during the 1986 Halley flybys are reproduced, assuming that the nucleus is strictly homogeneous. Here, we investigate the effect of shape perturbations and homogeneityperturbations. We show that the near nucleus gas coma structure is robust vis-a-vissuch effects. In particular, a random distribution of active and inactive areaswould not affect considerably this structure, suggesting that such areas,even if present, could not be easily identified on images of the coma.  相似文献   

测绘项目管理实施引论     

龚强 《地理信息世界》2002,(4)

根据我国测绘生产单位的实际情况 ,测绘项目管理的具体实施大致包括对项目的识别、选定、启动与筹集资金、计划、成本估算、执行计划、控制、收尾等主要步骤。当项目确定后 ,需要启动和筹集资金。而计划是项目管理的基本组成部分 ,包括明确项目目标和工作范围。项目成本估算有因素估算法和利用WBS方法的详细估算。项目质量管理规划的依据有质量目标、范围说明、标准和规范等。  相似文献   

Short-term Climate Characteristics at Ny-(A)lesund over the Arctic Tundra Area     

Deng Haibin  Lu Longhua  Bian Lingen 《极地研究(英文版)》2005,16(2)

Based on the Germany Koldwey Station's 1994-2003 conventional observation hourly data, this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the short-term climate characteristics for an arctic tundra region (Ny-(A)lesund island) where our first arctic expedition station (Huanghe Station) was located. Affected by the North Atlantic warming current, this area has a humid temperate climate, and the air temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose above 0 ℃ even during deep winter season during our research period. The wind speed in this area was low and appeared most at southeast direction. We find that the temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose in the faster rate (0.68 ℃/10 a) than those at the whole Arctic area. Compared with the floating ices where our expedition conducted in the Arctic, Ny-(A)lesund was warmer and more humid and had lower wind speed. Comparison of the near surface air temperature derived by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to the conventional measurements conducted at the Koldwey site in Ny-(A)lesund area shows a good agreement for winter season and a significant difference for summer season.  相似文献   

Isobaric cooling and anti-clockwise P–T paths in the Variscan Odenwald Crystalline Complex, Germany     

T. M. Will  E. Schmädicke 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2003,21(5):469-480

Mineral assemblages in Al₂O₃‐rich, SiO₂‐ and K₂O‐poor metapelitic rocks from the western Odenwald Crystalline Complex (Variscan Mid‐German Crystalline Rise, southern Germany) include corundum, spinel, cordierite, sillimanite, garnet and staurolite. Quartz is absent from almost all samples. Therefore, the applicability of conventional geothermobarometry is very limited or even impossible. Detailed petrographic investigation on selected samples permits inference of the sequence of appearance and disappearance of several mineral assemblages. The recognition of such partial re‐equilibration stages and their associated mineral assemblages, together with mineral stabilities predicted from KFMASH pseudosections, enables the determination of the pressure‐temperature (P–T) trajectories experienced by these rocks during the Variscan metamorphism. The rocks were metamorphosed under low‐P/high‐T conditions and underwent an anti‐clockwise P–T evolution. A pressure increase from about 2 kbar to 4 ± 0.5 kbar was accompanied by heating. Peak metamorphic conditions were reached at pressures of 4 ± 0.5 kbar and temperatures of at least 640 °C, probably even higher. The retrograde evolution is characterised by near‐isobaric cooling from ≥ 640 °C to approximately 550 °C. The rocks underwent the anti‐clockwise evolution in a subduction‐related magmatic arc setting. The close spatial association of the low‐P/high‐T rocks with recently discovered metabasic eclogites in the eastern part of the Odenwald Crystalline Complex may indicate a fossil paired metamorphic belt in the Central European Variscides.  相似文献   

成都市冬季重污染日气象条件成因分析及预报     

张波  杨柏生 《成都信息工程学院学报》1992,(3)

本文通过对成都10个重污染日进行天气学分析,将污染浓度与气象要素进行聚类、研究了重污染日形成原因及污染浓度与气象要素的关系。在此基础上,建立了SO_2、TSP日平均浓度分级预报方程。  相似文献