Prediction of Height and Period Joint Distributions for Stochastic Ocean Waves     

WANG Ying-guang 《海洋工程》2017,31(3):291-298

This article proposes a new methodology to predict the wave height and period joint distributions by utilizing a transformed linear simulation method. The proposed transformed linear simulation method is based on a Hermite transformation model where the transformation is chosen to be a monotonic cubic polynomial, calibrated such that the first four moments of the transformed model match the moments of the true process. The proposed new approach is applied for calculating the wave height and period joint distributions of a sea state with the surface elevation data measured at an offshore site, and its accuracy and efficiency are favorably validated by using comparisons with the results from an empirical joint distribution model, from a linear simulation model and from a second-order nonlinear simulation model.  相似文献   

Le grand séisme de Huaxian (1556) : quelques documents chinois     

Jean-Paul Poirier 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2017,349(2):49-52

The strong earthquake that struck Shaanxi, Shanxi and several other Chinese provinces in 1556 is generally considered as the deadliest of all earthquakes. It is said that the Chinese annals reported 830,000 casualties. We give here a translation into French of the relevant passage of the annals, as well as of a testimony of a survivor Qin Keda, and of a text engraved on a stela.  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地南缘彬县地区铀成矿关键时期的古地貌特征     

贺锋  张字龙  刘红旭  李平  李亚锋  殷龙飞 《地质通报》2017,36(4):527-533

中侏罗世为直罗组下段沉积期,辫状河道为有利的铀储层砂体,铀矿(化)体主要赋存于辫状河砂体中,受沉积古地貌控制,主要发育在低洼区。晚侏罗世、早白垩世-古新世、始新世-中新世是砂岩型铀成矿期,古地貌控制了地下古水流的流向,控制着氧化还原带的分布和铀矿的富集:晚侏罗世铀预成矿期,古隆起区受到潜水淋滤,含铀物质向斜坡和低洼区迁移;早白垩世-古新世铀主成矿期,古地貌控制了含氧含铀水的水流方向,氧化还原带主要分布在古地貌斜坡区。  相似文献   

Probabilistic assessment of soil liquefaction considering spatial variability of CPT measurements     

Gökhan Saygili 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(2):197-207

The conventional liquefaction potential assessment methods (also known as simplified methods) profoundly rely on empirical correlations based on observations from case histories. A probabilistic framework is developed to incorporate uncertainties in the earthquake ground motion prediction, the cyclic resistance prediction, and the cyclic demand prediction. The results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, site response analyses, and liquefaction potential analyses are convolved to derive a relationship for the annual probability and return period of liquefaction. The random field spatial model is employed to quantify the spatial uncertainty associated with the in-situ measurements of geotechnical material.  相似文献   

青藏高原及周边2001年以来三次特大地震引起的形变场分布特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

张元生  郑晓静  王兰民 《地球物理学报》2016,59(10):3637-3645

基于地壳黏弹模型在GPS观测资料和地震位错数据为约束条件下,应用有限元数值模拟方法对2001年昆仑山8.1级、2008年汶川8.0级和2015年尼泊尔8.1级特大地震引起的地壳形变分布特征进行了模拟计算,获得了地震位移场和形变场.这3次大地震分别发生在青藏高原的北部、东部边界和南部边界,尽管震级大小基本相当,但发震区域和发震断层性质都各不相同,其各自产生的地壳形变场分布特征存在明显的差异,主要表现为形变场区域大小、幅值大小等的差异,以及在不同地壳深度也存在明显的差异,这些差异主要取决于地震断层性质和地下介质结构的不同.通过模拟计算,可以进一步了解大地震产生的应力加卸载区分布特征,对预测未来地震发生区域范围提供重要参考依据.  相似文献   

用跨断层形变资料分析鲜水河断裂西北段的运动特征   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

方颖  张晶  江在森  邵志刚  曹建玲 《地球物理学报》2015,58(5):1645-1653

本文利用主成分分析、震间位错反演和小波技术分析了鲜水河断裂西北段的跨断层形变资料(1986—2013).结果表明:以左旋走滑为主的断层长期运动为跨断层资料的主要信息,且符合负指数函数的运动规律,随着断层深度的增加,滑动量逐渐减弱.从炉霍段、道孚段到乾宁段,断层闭锁程度逐渐增强.2001年昆仑山M8.1地震发生后,鲜水河断裂西北段地壳浅层(地表以下30km)的左旋走滑明显减弱,到2013年的累积减弱量为3~13mm.5·12汶川M8.0地震发生前,断层滑动出现周期4~5年的增强信号.4·20芦山M7.0地震发生前,断层滑动首先出现低频信号(4~5年周期)增强,随着地震发生临近,强信号频率逐渐升高,直到出现周期为1年的强信号.  相似文献   

金川—芦山—犍为剖面重力异常和地壳密度结构特征   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

杨光亮  申重阳  吴桂桔  谈洪波  石磊  汪健  张品  王嘉沛 《地球物理学报》2015,58(7):2424-2435

重力剖面金川—芦山—犍穿越芦山震区,近垂直于龙门山断裂带南段,长约300km,测点距平均2.5km,采用高精度绝对重力控制下的相对重力联测与同址GPS三维坐标测量,获得了沿剖面的自由空气异常和布格重力异常,并对布格重力异常进行了剩余密度相关成像和密度分层结构正反演研究.结果表明,芦山地震所在的龙门山断裂带南段存在垂直断裂走向的宽广的巨型重力梯级带,重力变化达252×10-5 m·s-2以上(龙泉山以西),反映出四川盆地与松潘—甘孜地块地壳厚度陡变(约14.5km)性质;四川盆地与松潘—甘孜地块过渡区(龙门山断裂带与新津—成都—德阳断裂之间)存在(30~50)×10-5 m·s-2的剩余异常"凹陷",可能与上地壳低密度体、山前剥蚀与松散堆积和推覆体前缘较为破碎有关;剩余密度相关成像显示地壳密度呈现分段性特征,在芦山地震位置出现高低密度变化;地壳呈现三层结构,四川盆地上、中、下地壳底界面平缓,反映其稳定阻挡作用,而松潘—甘孜块体上、中、下地壳底界面明显往盆地逐步抬升,反映出青藏高原往东的强烈挤压作用;松潘—甘孜块体往东推覆变形主要集中在上地壳范围内,推覆深度随离龙门山断裂带愈近而越浅.本文通过对密度分布及结构特征的研究,分析了芦山地震及龙门山地区地壳构造背景和当前活动性的深部动力环境特征.  相似文献   

analyses on the triggering facrors of large quantities of landslides in the upper reaches of the minjiang river,sichuan province     

LI Yan-hao  JIANG Han-chao  XU Hong-yan  LIANG Lian-ji 《地震地质》2015,37(4):1147-1161

Over the past geological and historical period, tens of thousands of landslides occurred in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, an area which is characterized by alpine valleys and has been densely populated over the past several hundreds of years. Discussing the triggering factor of these landslides is of great significance to geological hazard mitigation and prevention in this region. In this paper, we focus on four aspects of regional rainfall, shape features of landslide slopes, the corresponding relationship between landslide area and earthquake magnitude, and the recurring features of the reconstructed palaeoearthquake record at Diexi. Compared with those in Nepal, both mean seasonal rainfall accumulation and mean daily rainfall for the past 30 years are too low to reach the threshold values triggering landslides in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River. Secondly, landslides in the study area are usually absent of inner gorges(canyon topography)on the hillslope toes, which are confirmed in previous studies as typical features of landslides triggered by storms. Thirdly, wide distribution of the landslides in the study area supports our notion of earthquake-triggering because the landslides triggered by storms commonly distribute locally. Fourthly, periodicity analysis of the reconstructed palaeoearthquake record at Diexi provides a few cycles of twenty to thirty years, possibly corresponding to the earthquakes of magnitudes>5.0 or 5.5 which are believed to have caused soft-sediment deformation in the study area. In contrast, like the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, the average recurrence interval of the large earthquakes in the study area is 2.6ka. They caused tens of thousands of landslides and provided more coarse silt particles for the nearby lake sediments at least in 330 years for each time. This is consistent with exponential increase of earthquake magnitude from large to medium and of the landslide area with the increased earthquake magnitude. To sum up, we suggest that tens of thousands of landslides in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River were most likely triggered by earthquakes instead of storms. This preliminary viewpoint needs further examination in the future.  相似文献   

中国模式:转型期混合制度“生产”了城市混合空间结构   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

杨永春 《地理研究》2015,34(11):2021-2034

改革开放以来,渐进制度改革构建了中国经典的混合制度模式,生产了一个单位制、市场制、乡村制的空间混合体,即新单位主义生产了新单位空间,市场机制生产了市场化空间,乡村体制生产了乡村型空间。这三类城市空间演化存在各自的路径依赖,呈现出混合布局的自组织特征：第一,市场化空间全域快速扩张,是城市空间转型的主导类型;新单位空间在老城相对集中,并在郊区获得了一定程度的延伸;而乡村型空间则因建成区扩张而不断外移。第二,新单位空间散布于市场化空间中,市场化空间和新单位空间不断侵入乡村型空间,但市场型空间的扩张阻力越来越大,新单位空间逐步趋于稳定,乡村性用地外迁速度日趋减缓。中国的混合制度不消失,城市的混合空间结构将持续存在。  相似文献   

基于作物生长期的江苏省沿海地区气候生产潜力估算     

许艳  濮励杰  朱明 《地理科学》2015,35(5):658-664

江苏沿海地区是中国重要的耕地后备资源基地之一,气候生产潜力能够反映该地区粮食安全保障能力大小。考虑作物不同生长期光温水协调程度,对现有气候生产潜力模型基于作物生长期进一步改进,估算江苏沿海地区14个县市三大粮食作物气候生产潜力。结果表明：基于作物生长期的气候生产潜力模型具有可行性。江苏省沿海地区水稻和小麦作物气候生产潜力受太阳有效辐射、温度和降水因素共同影响;玉米气候生产潜力主要受太阳有效辐射和温度影响,不受降水因素限制。从地域分布特征看,江苏沿海地区水稻和玉米气候生产潜力南北方向呈现梯度递增规律;小麦气候生产潜力南北方向差异不大。  相似文献