Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy     

《Global Environmental Change》2016

This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanisms, such as technology lock-ins, arising from multi-agent interactions) and agent heterogeneity (e.g. differences in consumer and investment behaviour arising from income stratification). We first characterise the uncertainty faced by climate policy-makers and its implications for investment decision-makers. We then identify five shortcomings in the equilibrium and optimisation-based approaches most frequently used to inform sustainability policy: (i) their normative, optimisation-based nature, (ii) their unrealistic reliance on the full-rationality of agents, (iii) their inability to account for mutual influences among agents (multi-agent interactions) and capture related self-reinforcing (positive feedback) processes, (iv) their inability to represent multiple solutions and path-dependency, and (v) their inability to properly account for agent heterogeneity. The aim of this article is to introduce an alternative modelling approach based on complexity dynamics and agent heterogeneity, and explore its use in four key areas of sustainability policy, namely (1) technology adoption and diffusion, (2) macroeconomic impacts of low-carbon policies, (3) interactions between the socio-economic system and the natural environment, and (4) the anticipation of policy outcomes. The practical relevance of the proposed methodology is subsequently discussed by reference to four specific applications relating to each of the above areas: the diffusion of transport technology, the impact of low-carbon investment on income and employment, the management of cascading uncertainties, and the cross-sectoral impact of biofuels policies. In conclusion, the article calls for a fundamental methodological shift aligning the modelling of the socio-economic system with that of the climatic system, for a combined and realistic understanding of the impact of sustainability policies.  相似文献   

附有物理量和气象条件约束的光学卫星国土观测有效覆盖率评估     

巫兆聪  巫远  张熠  杨帆 《测绘学报》2016,45(7):841-849

传统光学卫星国土观测覆盖评估建立在卫星对地理想覆盖的基础上,并未考虑卫星存储、星地数据传输、观测时长等物理量及观测区域气象因素对于覆盖性能的影响。本文针对光学遥感卫星的国土观测需求.建立国土观测有效覆盖能力评估指标体系,根据卫星数据存储能力、星地数据传输能力、卫星单圈最大观测时长、卫星观测太阳高度角等性能参数,提出了基于物理性能约束下的有效覆盖计算方法。根据气象台站历年气象数据,提出了气象约束因子的计算方法。综合考虑卫星物理性能约束与观测区域气象约束,计算光学遥感卫星对地观测有效覆盖能力。最后根据专家设计的光学遥感卫星国土观测有效覆盖能力评估指标权重,利用层次分析法(AHP)评估光学遥感卫星系统对于国土观测的需求满足程度。试验结果表明,本文方法对于国土观测有效覆盖的估算和评价结果更加精确,更接近于国土观测的实际应用需求,为对地观测有效覆盖能力评估提供了一种更为精确的可行方案。  相似文献   

Origin and evolution of geothermal fluids from Las Tres Vírgenes and Cerro Prieto fields,Mexico – Co-genetic volcanic activity and paleoclimatic constraints     

《Applied Geochemistry》2016

Major and trace elements, noble gases, and stable (δD, δ¹⁸O) and cosmogenic (³H, ¹⁴C) isotopes were measured from geothermal fluids in two adjacent geothermal areas in NW-Mexico, Las Tres Vírgenes (LTV) and Cerro Prieto (CP). The goal is to trace the origin of reservoir fluids and to place paleoclimate and structural-volcanic constraints in the region. Measured ³He/⁴He (R) ratios normalized to the atmospheric value (R_a = 1.386 × 10⁻⁶) vary between 2.73 and 4.77 and are compatible with mixing between a mantle component varying between 42 and 77% of mantle helium and a crustal, radiogenic He component with contributions varying between 23% and 58%. Apparent U–Th/⁴He ages for CP fluids (0.7–7 Ma) suggest the presence of a sustained ⁴He flux from a granitic basement or from mixing with connate brines, deposited during the Colorado River delta formation (1.5–3 Ma). Radiogenic in situ ⁴He production age modeling at LTV, combined with the presence of radiogenic carbon (1.89 ± 0.11 pmC – 35.61 ± 0.28 pmC) and the absence of tritium strongly suggest the Quaternary infiltration of meteoric water into the LTV geothermal reservoir, ranging between 4 and 31 ka BP. The present geochemical heterogeneity of LTV fluids can be reconstructed by mixing Late Pleistocene – Early Holocene meteoric water (58–75%) with a fossil seawater component (25–42%), as evidenced by Br/Cl and stable isotope trends. CP geothermal water is composed of infiltrated Colorado River water with a minor impact by halite dissolution, whereas a vapor-dominated sample is composed of Colorado River water and vapor from deeper levels. δD values for the LTV meteoric end-member, which are 20‰–44‰ depleted with respect to present-day precipitation, as well as calculated annual paleotemperatures 6.9–13.6 °C lower than present average temperatures in Baja California point to the presence of humid and cooler climatic conditions in the Baja California peninsula during the final stage of the Last Glacial Pluvial period. Quaternary recharge of the LTV geothermal reservoir is related to elevated precipitation rates during cooler-humid climate intervals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. The probable replacement of connate water or pore fluids by infiltrating surface water might have been triggered by enhanced fracture and fault permeability through contemporaneous tectonic–volcanic activity in the Las Tres Vírgenes region. Fast hydrothermal alteration processes caused a secondary, positive δ¹⁸O-shift from 4‰ to 6‰ for LTV and from 2‰ to 4‰ for CP geothermal fluids since the Late Glacial infiltration.  相似文献   

Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANG Zhaozhi  JIANG Guangyu  WANG Xianwei  ZHANG Jianfeng 《《地质学报》英文版》2016,90(4):1370-1417

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.  相似文献   

基于挟沙力的三峡水库泥沙淤积形态分析          下载免费PDF全文

李文杰  李娜  杨胜发  王涛 《水科学进展》2016,27(5):726-734

三峡水库蓄水运用后,泥沙淤积主要分布在常年库区的宽谷和弯道,峡谷则无累积性淤积。基于实测资料计算了三峡成库前（2001年）和成库后（2003-2011年）的挟沙力,结果表明挟沙力随着不同运行阶段坝前水位的抬高而逐步降低,宽谷河段降低幅度较大,峡谷河段降低幅度较小,泥沙淤积比率逐步增大。宽谷河段挟沙力普遍降至含沙量以下而发生淤积,峡谷河段挟沙力仍大于含沙量而无累积性淤积。流量越大,宽谷河段的挟沙力越小于含沙量,而峡谷河段的挟沙力越大于含沙量,表明宽谷河段淤积主要发生在汛期,而峡谷河段汛期以冲刷为主。由于细颗粒泥沙絮凝沉降以及黏性淤积物难以冲刷,恢复饱和系数淤积取1、冲刷取0.01得到的沿程淤积量计算值与实测值吻合较好。弯道河段计算的淤积量与实测值差异较大,表明弯道河段二维特征明显,利用一维的挟沙力计算淤积量不能适用。  相似文献   

Study on the Temporal-Spatial Evolution of Prehistoric Settlements and Its Correlation with Subsistence Strategy and Climate History in the Western Liao River Area     

Wang Lin  Wu Hong  Jia Xin 《地球科学进展》2016,31(11):1159-1171

Western Liao River area is one of the most important birthplaces of agricultural civilization in northern China. With recent works like relics survey, site excavation and environmental archaeology going further, the time sequence, cultural content and subsistence strategy history of this area are getting explicit. Questions like ancient exploiting history of natural resources, climate background and cultural impact of subsistence strategy have been paid great attention. Traditional environmental archaeology methods like plant and animal remains analysis are mostly utilized to conduct in-site investigation, current studies rarely adopt quantitative methods to examine the sites’ macro temporal-spatial distribution and aggregation pattern. Based on abundant digitized relic survey data, GIS methods like kernel density analysis are utilized to indicate the temporal-spatial distribution and aggregation pattern of prehistoric cultures in Western Liao River area. The latitudinal, longitudinal and altitudinal migrations of site distributional core are indicated by 3D perspective shift and elevation statistics. By referencing existing studies on subsistence strategy and paleoclimate history, results of spatial analysis are used to reveal the correlation among sites’ temporal-spatial distribution, subsistence strategy adopted and climate variation. This also contributes to our understanding and utilization of massive locational information of prehistoric sites in ancient man-land relationship study.  相似文献   

Magnetic Influences of Cement Dust on Soil in Industrial Area and Its Environmental Implications   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Li Yong  Zhao Yingquan  Yao Jie 《地球科学进展》2016,31(8):829-839

To monitor environmental implications of cement dust on soil in industrial area, magnetic parameters and mineral compositions were measured by the samples of the cement dust, cement factory dustfall, cement, coal ash, topsoil of green space in the factory and topsoil outside the factory. Results showed that the major magnetic minerals in the samples were magnetite, the magnetic mineral particle size of cement dust, dustfall, cement and coal ash was coarse Multi-Domian (MD) and Pseudo-Single-Domain (PSD). As topsoil of green space in the factory and topsoil outside the factory were polluted by cement dust, their magnetic properties had been obviously changed; the concentration of magnetic minerals elevated and particle size became coarser. The magnetic parameters (χ_fd,χ_ARM/χ,χ_ARM/SIRM) value can reflect the pollution level of the soil, the lower its value was, the more serious soil was polluted. X-ray diffraction results showed that the mineral compositions of the topsoil of green space in the factory and topsoil outside the factory were quartz and calcite, which were the same as cement dust. Magnetic parameters combination characteristics of topsoil can monitor the soil environmental changes in cement industry area.  相似文献   

北京某山坡湿陷性土层地基处理可行性分析与建议          下载免费PDF全文

刘伍  樊金桂  张贺 《探矿工程》2016,43(11):75-79

北京市密云区某拟建别墅工程,属于山体边坡地基基础工程,任务要求对湿陷性地基土层进行湿陷性消除,并将其地基土承载力特征值提高到fak≥130 kPa。此外,还需要考虑边坡稳定性及其永久性加固问题。对该项目进行了深入分析、研究,并采用概念设计方法,对其进行设计预演,发现该项目存在工序复杂、不易实施、在永久性使用方面存在一定隐患、并具有责任不当等问题。对该地基基础工程进行了重新分析,建议取消地基处理措施,改用嵌岩桩作为拟建物的基础。  相似文献   

围填海对海洋水动力与生态环境的影响   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6  

林磊  刘东艳  刘哲  高会旺 《海洋学报》2016,38(8):1-11

近10年来,中国海岸带围填海活动呈现出规模大、速度快的发展态势。围填海能带来显著的经济效益,但对海洋环境与生态的负面影响也不可忽视。针对围填海对海洋环境和生态的影响及作用机制,分别从水动力和生态系统两个方面进行了概述。围填海改变了海洋的自然几何属性(原始岸线、地形地貌、海湾面积),引起水动力环境的变化(潮汐系统和海湾水交换能力),进而影响了海湾的环境容量;围填海破坏了生物栖息地、导致生物多样性的丧失,影响到生态系统结构与功能的稳定性;水动力与生物多样性的变化可显著影响到生物地球化学过程,加速富营养化进程,恶化水质,增加生态灾害风险。目前,围填海后的生态修复策略主要有增加生物量、建设自然保护区、退陆还海3种方式;而生态补偿策略则多基于“生态系统服务功能与生境面积的大小为线性关系”,通过对其经济价值的量化后进行生态补偿与实施相关政策。国际上,生态系统服务功能的量化参数逐步纳入实际管理,并在线性关系研究的基础上,逐步纳入一些非线性的理念,使生态补偿机制更为合理化;而我国对于围填海生态效应的定量化研究及科学理论在管理政策中的实际应用仍亟待提高。整体而言,全面、准确地评估围填海对海洋环境与生态的影响离不开自然科学与社会科学的交叉与融合。  相似文献   

Geological control factors of micro oil distribution in tight reservoirs     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2016

Understanding the oil distribution characteristics in unconventional tight reservoirs is crucial for hydrocarbon evaluation and oil/gas extraction from such reservoirs. Previous studies on tight oil distribution characteristics are mostly concerned with the basin scale. Based on Lucaogou core samples, geochemical approaches including Soxhlet extraction, total organic carbon (TOC), and Rock-Eval are combined with reservoir physical approaches including mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) and porosity-permeability analysis, to quantitatively evaluate oil distribution of tight reservoirs on micro scale. The emphasis is to identify the key geological control factors of micro oil distribution in such tight reservoirs. Dolomicrites and non-detrital mudstones have excellent hydrocarbon generation capacity while detritus-containing dolomites, siltstones, and silty mudstones have higher porosity and oil content, and coarser pore throat radius. Oil content is mainly controlled by porosity, pore throat radius, and hydrocarbon generation capacity. Porosity is positively correlated with oil content in almost all samples including various lithologies, indicating that it is a primary constraint for providing storage space. Pore throat radius is also an important factor, as oil migration is inhibited by the capillary pressure which must be overcome. If the reservoir rock with suitable porosity has no hydrocarbon generation capacity, pore throat radius will be decisive. As tight reservoirs are generally characterized by widely distributed nanoscale pore throats and high capillary pressure, hydrocarbon generation capacity plays an important role in reservoir rocks with suitable porosity and fine pore throats. Because such reservoir rocks cannot be charged completely. The positive correlation between hydrocarbon generation capacity and oil content in three types of high porosity lithologies (detritus-containing dolomites, siltstones, and silty mudstones) supports this assertion.  相似文献