Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Marijke Huysmans  Tamás Madarász  Alain Dassargues 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(2):180-193

This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results.  相似文献   

Flow and form in rehabilitation of large-river ecosystems: An example from the Lower Missouri River   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Robert B. Jacobson  David L. Galat   《Geomorphology》2006,77(3-4):249

On large, intensively engineered rivers like the Lower Missouri, the template of the physical habitat is determined by the nearly independent interaction of channel form and flow regime. We evaluated the interaction between flow and form by modeling four combinations of modern and historical channel form and modern and historical flow regimes. The analysis used shallow, slow water (shallow-water habitat, SWH, defined as depths between 0 and 1.5 m, and current velocities between 0 and 0.75 m/s) as an indicator of habitat that has been lost on many intensively engineered rivers and one that is thought to be especially important in rearing of young fishes. Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models for modern and historical channels of the Lower Missouri River at Hermann, Missouri, indicate substantial differences between the two channels in total availability and spatial characteristics of SWH. In the modern channel, SWH is maximized at extremely low flows and in overbank flows, whereas the historical channel had substantially more SWH at all discharges and SWH increased with increasing discharge. The historical channel form produced 3–7 times the SWH area of the modern channel regardless of flow regime. The effect of flow regime is evident in increased within-year SWH variability with the natural flow regime, including significant seasonal peaks of SWH associated with spring flooding. Comparison with other reaches along the Lower Missouri River indicates that a) channel form is the dominant control of the availability of habitat even in reaches where the hydrograph is more intensively altered, and b) rehabilitation projects that move toward the historical condition can be successful in increasing topographic diversity and thereby decreasing sensitivity of the availability of habitat to flow regime. The relative efficacy of managing flow and form in creating SWH is useful information toward achieving socially acceptable rehabilitation of the ecosystem in large river systems.  相似文献   

Early Holocene water budget of the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin, Central Kenya Rift     

Miriam Dühnforth  Andreas G. N. Bergner  Martin H. Trauth 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,36(3):281-294

The Nakuru-Elmenteita basin in the Central Kenya Rift, contains two shallow, alkaline lakes, Lake Nakuru (1770 m above sea level) and Lake Elmenteita (1786 m). Ancient shorelines and lake sediments at 1940 m suggest that these two lakes formed a single large and deep lake as a result of a wetter climate during the early Holocene. Here, we used a hydrological model to compare the precipitation–evaporation balance during the early Holocene to today. Assuming that the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin was hydrologically closed, as it is today, the most likely climate scenario includes a 45% increase in mean-annual precipitation, a 0.5°C decrease in air temperature, and an increase of 9% in cloud coverage from the modern values. Compared to the modeling results from other East African lake basins, this dramatic increase in precipitation seems to be unrealistic. Therefore, we propose a significant flow of water from the early Holocene Lake Naivasha in the south towards the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin to compensate the extremely negative hydrological budget of this basin. Since we did not find any field evidence for a surface connection, as often proposed during the last 70 years, the hydrological deficit of the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin could have also been compensated by a subsurface water exchange.  相似文献   

Quantification of karst aquifer discharge components during storm events through end-member mixing analysis using natural chemistry and stable isotopes as tracers   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Daniel H. Doctor  E. Calvin Alexander Jr  Metka Petrič  Janja Kogovšek  Janko Urbanc  Sonja Lojen  Willibald Stichler 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(7):1171-1191

Karst aquifer components that contribute to the discharge of a water supply well in the Classical Karst (Kras) region (Italy/Slovenia) were quantitatively estimated during storm events. Results show that water released from storage within the epikarst may comprise as much as two-thirds of conduit flow in a karst aquifer following rainfall. Principal components analysis (PCA) and end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) were performed using major ion chemistry and the stable isotopes of water (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) and of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ¹³C_DIC) to estimate mixing proportions among three sources: (1) allogenic river recharge, (2) autogenic recharge, and (3) an anthropogenic component stored within the epikarst. The sinking river most influences the chemical composition of the water-supply well under low-flow conditions; however, this proportion changes rapidly during recharge events. Autogenic recharge water, released from shallow storage in the epikarst, displaces the river water and is observed at the well within hours after the onset of precipitation. The autogenic recharge end member is the second largest component of the well chemistry, and its contribution increases with higher flow. An anthropogenic component derived from epikarstic storage also impacts the well under conditions of elevated hydraulic head, accounting for the majority of the chemical response at the well during the wettest conditions.  相似文献   

3D Modeling and Kinematics of the External Zone of the French Western Alps (Belledonne and Grand Chatelard Massifs, Maurienne Valley, Savoie)     

Didier Marquer  Philippe Calcagno  Jean-Claude Barfety  Thierry Baudin 《Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae》2006,99(2):211-222

  相似文献   

基于IMAGIS的数字小区建模探讨   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

余军  李永树 《四川测绘》2005,28(4):160-164

随着城市化水平的不断提高，对城市的规划管理也提出了很高的要求，数字城市作为数字地球的重要组成部分正是在这一背景下提出的。本文结合适普公司的IMAGIS软件，对城市小区鼍维场景建设中的相关问题进行了探讨，并以遂宁市某街区为例进行了实践。  相似文献   

地震波混合阶褶积算法模拟   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

戴志阳  孙建国  查显杰 《物探化探计算技术》2005,27(2):111-114

基于正反傅立叶变换,提出了地震波模拟的混合阶褶积算法。该方法原理简单、易于实现,结合了有限差分与伪谱法的优点,具有较高的精度和计算效率,适用于地震波场的正演计算,同时还给出了二维地震波场的理论计算实例。计算结果表明,此算法模拟结果正确、精度高、速度快、能适应较为复杂地质模型,并且易于推广到各向异性介质中去。  相似文献   

吉林台爆破料应力应变关系的三轴试验研究     

侯新强  张远芳  高盟  慈军  刘红  张之科 《新疆地质》2005,23(2):194-198

通过室内大型三轴实验，研究了吉林台水库爆破料在不同级配下的应力应变关系，得到了在一定击实功下爆破料的最大干密度随细料含量变化的规律，分析了爆破料在不同级配和不同围压下应力与应变的变化规律、轴向应变与体积应变的关系及抗剪强度变化特性．从微观的角度说明了变化规律产生的原因，得出爆破料的抗剪强度随级配的变化而变化的规律．  相似文献   

北方某城市浅层地下水中有机污染物迁移转化的数值模拟研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

刘明柱  陈鸿汉胡丽琴 《中国地质》2005,32(3):507-511

在3次野外取水样分析的基础上，分析了研究区域有机污染特征，并根据室内实验和国内外文献资料所获取的参数，利用地下水模拟系统软件（GMS）对研究区三氯乙烯（TCE）和四氯乙烯（PCE）在地下水中的运移转化进行数值模拟研究，模拟结果表明：研究区地下水中TCE和PCE存在生物降解作用，但是反应速率很小，这表明在相当长的时间内，其浓度仍可能保持在相当的水平上。  相似文献   

城市钻孔数据地下三维地质建模软件的实现   总被引：15，自引：1，他引：15  

李亦纲  曲国胜  陈建强 《地质通报》2005,24(5):470-475

介绍了基于钻孔数据的城市地下三维地质建模软件的实现过程，提出了基于钻孔数据三维地质建模的总体思路、钻孔数据管理和层序分层方法，还介绍了软件的模块组成及应用实例。建立的软件实现了对城市钻孔数据的三维建模、可视化分析和科学管理，具有丰富的二维成图和三维显示功能，实例的应用也说明本软件是分析城市第四系构造格架和演化的有力工具。  相似文献