新疆地震趋势的模糊灰色预测     

曲延军 《内陆地震》1995,9(4):363-368

从模糊数学和灰色系统理论两个不同角度来分析地震事件，把模糊数学的表达方式用于灰色灾变预测ＧＭ（１，１）中，建立了地震预测的模糊灰色模型。用此模型讨论了南北天山四个区（带）的震级序列，在等维情况下，对比了模糊灰色方法与单纯灰色方法的优劣，讨论了影响预测结果的因素，最后给出了不同目标震级下各区（带）的预测值。  相似文献   

A Computer Model for Cyclic Activity of Strong Earthquakes in Continental Seismic Zones     

Zhang Guomin  Geng Lumin  and Shi YaolinCenter for Analysis  Prediction  Beijing  China  'Graduate School  Academia Sinica  Beijing  China 《中国地震研究》1995,(1)

Based on the study of activity of earthquakes with M**********>7.0 in mainland China,we have found a dynamic pattern,i.e.,the cyclic characteristics in time and migration from one seismic zone to another in space.In order to understand the physical mechanism of this pattern,we use a nonlinear dynamic model to simulate the seismic activity in fault zones under a unified tectonic stress field.The basic elements in our model consist of a Maxwell body and a rigid sliding block.Basic elements in a column represent a fault,and coupling elements connecting different columns simulate the interaction among faults and fault segments.The results provide insights to the cyclic activity of strong earthquakes and to the feature of mutual influence between strong earthquakes in groups in the climax of seismic activity.  相似文献   

京津唐地区地壳结构与强震的发生──I．P波速度结构   总被引：11，自引：3，他引：11       下载免费PDF全文

孙若昧  刘福田 《地球物理学报》1995,(5)

用１９８４－１９９１年发生在京津唐地区（３７°－４１°Ｎ，１１２．５°－１２０°Ｅ）的２５０５个地震的２２２３４条Ｐ波到时进行的层析成像，揭示了地震活动性与速度图像间的联系：１．公元１０００年以来该区强震震中在上地壳的投影大多分布在高速块体内或高速块体与低速块体相交地带，偏高速体的一侧．２．唐山地震和三河－平谷地震所处的构造背景相似，均未依傍大断层，处在介质速度变化剧烈部位．３．宁河与唐山、滦县分别位于规模大小、位置深浅不同的两个不同的高速块体处，可以解释唐山地震序列震源深度分布东北浅西南深的总体特征．４．唐山地震可能是由一条北西向的地下隐伏断层扩展的结果．  相似文献   

计算最小走时和射线路径的界面网全局方法   总被引：27，自引：16，他引：27       下载免费PDF全文

刘洪  孟凡林 《地球物理学报》1995,38(6):823-832

用慢度分块均匀正方形模型将介质参数化，仅在正方形单元的边界上设置计算结点，这些结点构成界面网．根据Ｈｕｖｓｅｎｓ和Ｆｅｒｍａｔ原理，由不断扩张、收缩的波前点扫描代替波前面搜索，在波前点附近点的局部最小走时计算中对波前点之间的走时使用双曲线近似，通过比较确定最小走时和相应的次级源位置，记录在以界面网点位置为指针的３个一维数组中．借助这些数组通过向源搜索可计算任意点（包括界面网以外的点）上的全局最小走时和射线路径．这一方法不受介质慢度差异大小限制，占内存少，计算速度较快，适于走时反演和以Ｍａｓｌｏｖ射线理论为基础的波场计算．  相似文献   

台湾东地震带地震活动特征及与大陆地震的关系   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

李献智  张国民 《地震研究》1995,18(1):16-20

本文研究了台湾东地震带地震活动的特征及其与中国大陆地震的关系，发现二者具有时间上的同步性和某些动力学特征的联系，既为判定大陆地震趋势提供了参考依据，也为可能统一研究中国大陆和台湾省的地震趋势提供了有价值的线索。  相似文献   

全球最优插值客观分析   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

屠伟铭  张跃堂 《气象学报》1995,53(2):148-156

主要叙述国家气象中心实时运行的全球资料同化系统中的客观分析方案，该方案采用最优插值统计方法，使用所有可以使用的各种类型有不同误差的观测资料和模式的６ｈ预报值，给出数值形式的全球分析值。在两年的业务运行中，为Ｔ４２中期数值预报谱模式提供了较好的初始场。  相似文献   

地震活动性的细胞自动机模型   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

刘桂萍  石耀霖  马丽 《地震工程学报》1995,17(2):20-25

本文在二维平面设计了一个模拟地震活动性的细胞自动机模型，分析了模拟地震离列的活动性，并探讨了强震前场兆和源兆的物理机制，结果表明，模型的地震序列很好地反映了实际地震的丛集特性、幂律关系和空间转移概率的稳定性等特点。  相似文献   

Investigation of relationship between cloudiness and global radiation using METEOSAT images     

A. Paál 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1987,125(1):109-120

The relationship between the daily values of global radiation measured at the ground in the vicinity of Budapest and in the Hungarian Great Plain and two kinds of cloud parameters determined on the basis of METEOSAT analogue paper pictures was studied for the period between November 1981 and July 1983. One of the cloud parameters, the cloud coverage given in tenths, has a quadratic relationship with the surface global radiation. The other cloud parameter, the relative brightness, is in a good linear connection with the global radiation. The advantage of the first parameter is that its determination does not demand any technical equipment, but the second parameter is more objective. The comparison of the calculated global radiation values with the data measured shows that the precision of the formulae determined is good in both cases.  相似文献   

Elastic models of seismic failure in the Valley of Mexico     

A. Uribe-Carvajal  E. Nyland 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1982,120(4):795-808

Restricted parts of the Valley of Mexico have been plagued by swarms of small earthquakes during recent years. The cause of these events is puzzling, but they may relate to massive artificial changes in the hydrology of the lake-bed which underlies most of Mexico City. If the valley responds elastically, plane strain finite element calculations can be used to relate geologic and seismic structure to observed seismicity and overall stability of the valley. These calculations show that unstable zones and areas of local seismicity coincide if the triggering mechanism of the seismicity is related to variations of pore pressure and water load.In order to make such a connection it is necessary to ascribe the generating mechanism of the seismicity to the density and elastic modulus anomalies associated with the valley structure, and to suggest that the phenomenon that triggers this seismicity is related to changes in water content of the near surface formations.  相似文献   

Seismic risk of circum-pacific earthquakes I. Strain energy release   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kostas C. Makropoulos  Paul W. Burton 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1983,121(2):247-267

Commonly used earthquake “whole process” frequency - magnitude and strain energy - magnitude laws are merged to obtain an analytic expression for an upper bound magnitude to regional earthquake occurrenceM ₃, which is expressed primarily in terms of the annual maximum magnitudeM ₁ and the magnitude equivalent of the annual average total strain energy releaseM ₂. Values ofM ₃ are also estimated graphically from cumulative strain energy release diagrams. Both methods are illustrated by application to the high seismicity of the circum-Pacific belt, using Duda’s (1965) data and regionalisation. Values ofM ₃ obtained analytically, with their uncertainties, are in agreement with those obtained graphically. Empirical relations are then obtained betweenM ₁,M ₂, andM ₃, which could be of general assistance in regional seismic risk considerations if they are found to be of a universal nature. For instance.M ₃ andM ₂ differ by one magnitude unit in subregions of the circum-Pacific.  相似文献