A Bayesian belief network approach for mapping water conservation ecosystem service optimization region     

Zeng  Li  Li  Jing 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(6):1021-1038

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Water conservation is one of the most important ecosystem services of terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the optimization regions of water conservation using...  相似文献   

中国飞蝗(Locusta migratoria)灾害地理分布模拟及其生物气候因子分析          下载免费PDF全文

张杰  张旸  赵振勇  李敏 《干旱区地理》2019,42(3):590-598

飞蝗Locusta migratoria (Linnaeus)系斑翅蝗科Oedipodidae飞蝗属Locusta Linnaeus洲际性农业重大害虫,在我国主要包括东亚飞蝗L.migratoria manilensis (Meyen)、亚洲飞蝗[WTBX]L.migratoria[WTBZ] (Linnaeus)和西藏飞蝗L.migratoria tibetensis Chen。掌控飞蝗灾害的地理空间分布并预测起潜在的适宜分布区,对于我国飞蝗灾害的综合防控具有重要意义。结合三种中国飞蝗灾害记录地理信息和生物环境环境因子参数,应用最大熵模型(MaxEnt) 和地理信息技术(GIS) ,在3 km×3 km尺度上对三种飞蝗灾害在中国的地理分布空间格局梯度、灾害风险概率和风险等级进行了模拟预测与分析,并对影响分布的关键生物气候环境因子进行了分析。结果显示,蝗灾害风险区的地理分布模拟结果与历史记录完全符合,ROC检验表明MaxEnt 模型预测可靠性极高。三种飞蝗东亚飞蝗、亚洲飞蝗和西藏飞蝗在中国的灾害风险区总面积依次分别为315.87×10⁴ km²、395.80×10⁴ km²和125.00×10⁴ km²,分别占国土面积的33.43%、41.96% 和13.25%。东亚飞蝗和亚洲飞蝗的灾害风险区存在75.8×10⁴ km²的空间重叠,主要分布于我国农牧交错区及以南区域。三种飞蝗灾害风险区的地理梯度与分布格局与中国三大自然地理区高度吻合,其地理分布格局表现出显著的经度和纬度空间梯度异质性。刀切法检测（Jackknife test）表明,三种飞蝗灾害的主导生物—气候影响因子的不同导致了其地理分布格局的显著差异,表明蝗灾爆发概率同时受到各自不同飞蝗物种对气候环境的适应性与地理空间隔离作用的共同制约。研究结果可为我国飞蝗灾害的跨界联合全程防控、区域联网监测联控和综合治理提供参考依据。  相似文献   

气候变化情景下油茶生长的适宜性特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王小军  刘光旭  肖彤 《热带地理》2020,40(5):868-880

基于气候情景数据与油茶标本,运用MaxEnt模型分析全新世中期、当代与未来阶段油茶生长的气候适宜性特征,将概率分布结果由不适宜到最适宜分为4个等级,分析了各时段空间分布变化与最适宜区北界变化、几何中心变化及位移情况。结果如下：1）MaxEnt模型的AUC值为0.848,评估结果达到“好”的标准,说明该模型可用;年降水量、最湿季降水量、最暖季平均温、温度季节性变化的标准差、最干月降水量、最湿季平均温和最冷季平均温等是7个主要环境因子。2）中国油茶主要适宜生长于长江以南、云贵高原以东,经纬度范围为30°N以南、107°E以东地区;适宜及以上等级占研究区面积的34.9%~61%;适宜性变化,空间上西南地区波动明显,面积上稳定和降低类占比较高。3）油茶最适宜区北界位于亚热带中部,不同年代、不同地区北界各异,长江中下游地区变化较小,而秦岭、渝、贵和桂等地变动较大,整体趋势为全新世中期至1980s向南推移,未来情景下2050s和2070s缓慢向北推移;几何中心在全新世中期时位于湖南郴州,至1980s时向东南方位移至广东韶关,至2050s时向东北位移至江西吉安,并相对稳定。4）基于气候情景数据和MaxEnt物种分布模型分析中国南方地区油茶气候适宜性时空分布与变化特征结果可靠。  相似文献   

车步单元地质特征及时代初探     

吴旭玲  欧阳克贵 《华东地质学院学报》2000,23(2):121-123

车步单元为基性侵入体,同于钛铁矿含量较高,发现有多处矿点,与成密切相关,在岩石化学特征及成岩时代上与区域菖蒲组玄武岩有同期同源性,定位时代为早侏罗世。  相似文献   

Engineering Geological Study of the Active Tectonic Region for Hydropower Development on the Jinsha River,Upstream of the Yangtze River   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

WANG Sijing  LI Guohe 《《地质学报》英文版》2000,74(2):353-361

The Jinsha River runs across the Hengduanshan north-south tectonic zone where neotectonism was relatively strong, accompanied by various geologic hazards. In this case, it seems necessary to make a quantitative assessment and grading of the engineering geological environment for the planning and development of hydropower projects on the Jinsha River.The studies of crustal structures and activities of neotectonic fault blocks provide a three-dimensional geomechan-ics model for us to make an assessment of the engineering geological environment. Based on the survey data and results from geologic hazard risk analysis, a hierarchical analysis model on the quality of the engineering geological environment is established with respect to the crustal stability, ground stability, and rock and soil mass stability. Nine factors relevant to the geological environment are selected and five levels are used for the quality grades: very bad, bad, mediocre, good, very good. The result indicates that active deep faults ha  相似文献   

四川二滩水库库区蓄水前地震序列揭示的水库诱震结构   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

赵珠  龙思胜  罗昭明 《华南地震》1999,19(1):78-84

四川二滩水库地震遥测台网自运行以来,记录了库区发生的力马,田湾－金河和马鹿塘三次地震序列,主震震级分别为３．２,４．０和２．６级,利用工业爆破和天然地震资料,计算了该区域的Ｐ波和Ｓ波地壳分层速度模型,以此模型为基础,采用参考时间平均值法和数值性能极好的单纯形空间迭代寻优定位方法,修定为了这三个序列的震源位置,得到精度一般小于０．３ｋｍ,最大不超过０．５ｋｍ的精确解,最后,利用定位结果,求解了田湾序  相似文献   

河北省太行山区核桃萌芽-幼果期温度适宜度模型构建及应用     

赵玉兵  李武龙  陈利英  路漫漫  杨丽娜  孙东磊 《气象科技》2022,50(1):155-160

本文基于温度因子对核桃萌芽-幼果期生长发育的影响,建立了日平均气温隶属函数适宜度模型,将逐日最低气温、致死温度和致灾温度及低于致灾温度持续时间引入温度隶属函数,建立了日最低气温隶属函数适宜度模型,将上述适宜度按一定的权重组合构建了河北省太行山区核桃萌芽-幼果期温度隶属函数适宜度模型.基于模型计算分析表明:冻害发生时,日...  相似文献   

Hydraulic modelling of fish habitat in urban rivers during high flows     

D. J. Booker 《水文研究》2003,17(3):577-599

In urban rivers, flow regime and channel morphology are the drivers of physical habitat quality for aquatic species. Peak discharges are increased at high flows as a result of impermeable catchments and channel engineering for flood protection schemes. Hazardous conditions and flashy hydrographs mean that measurement of velocities at high flows is a difficult task. This research uses a three‐dimensional computational fluid dynamics (3D‐CFD) model to simulate hydraulic patterns in two urban river channels. A 3D‐CFD code, called SSIIM, was used to simulate hydraulic conditions in two engineered river reaches of the River Tame, Birmingham, UK. These two sites represent channels with different levels of engineering. Models were calibrated and tested using field measurements. Results show that modelled water surface levels and velocity profiles are well simulated. Calibrated roughness heights are compared with those derived from field measurement of sediment size. Numerical experiments are used to assess the relationship between grid resolution in the vertical dimension and the form of the modelled velocity profiles. Biologists have used laboratory experiments to determine maximum sustainable swimming speeds (MSSS) of fish, often in order to assess what level of a particular pollutant may be tolerable. In this work, simulations of high‐flow hydraulic patterns are used to compare velocity patterns with fish MSSS. Results show that when the water levels rise to fill the first channel of the two‐stage channels at the sites, which occurred 16 times in 2000, MSSS are surpassed in the majority of available habitat, suggesting that excessive velocities at high flows are one factor that limits fish habitat. A comparison between the two reaches shows that there is less available habitat in the more modified reach. Conclusions suggest that an approach that integrates water quality issues and physical channel characteristics must be taken in river rehabilitation schemes, as improvements to water quality alone may not be sufficient to improve habitat quality to the desired level. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

南充市地质环境对城市建设的适宜性评价     

杨晓凤 《四川地质学报》1997,(4)

根据南充市城区地质环境条件及主要环境地质问题，采用模糊数学综合评判方法将南充市城区分成了四个地质环境质量区，结合城市建设对不同区进行了分析评价，最后指出了城市发展方向（即地质环境质量好区）。  相似文献   

试论中强震发生地点与中短期前兆空间分布的关系   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

苏乃秦 《内陆地震》1997,11(4):289-294

通过分析１９８０年以来发生在新疆境内的地震，发现大多数，Ｍｓ≥５．０地震发生在前兆异常密集区（专家系统高信度区和各类前兆异常叠合集中区）的边缘和外围邻区，而不是发生在通常认为的前兆空间分布密集区的中心及附近地区，为了缩小强震地点预报的尺度，必须考虑上述事实，用材料合成模式和板内复杂地震断裂裂带模式可以探讨其机理。  相似文献