基于三参量威布尔分布的潜在震源区强震危险性估计     

刘哲  李琦  任鲁川  田建伟  张锟 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(2):346-353

本文提出了一种基于三参量威布尔分布模型估计潜在震源区强震危险性的方法。选择日本东海-南海地震带为潜在震源区,分别基于强震发震时间间隔服从二参量和三参量的威布尔分布,估计该区强震危险性,结果表明三参量威布尔分布的拟合效果优于二参量威布尔分布。选择马尼拉海沟俯冲带为潜在震源区,基于三参量威布尔分布估计该区强震危险性,结果显示未来10、30和50年该区强震（M≧7.5）复发概率分别为62%、82%和89%,最短发震时间间隔估计为1.70年。  相似文献   

非稳态地震记录时变子波估计          下载免费PDF全文

冯玮  胡天跃  姚逢昌  张研  崔永福  彭更新 《地球物理学报》2017,60(1):305-315

地震子波估计是地震资料处理和解释中的一个关键问题,子波估计的可靠性会直接影响反褶积和反演的准确度.现有的子波估计方法分为确定型和统计型两种类型,本文通过结合这两类方法,利用确定型的谱分析法和统计型的偏度最大化方法,分别提取时变子波的振幅和相位信息,得到估计的时变子波.这种方法不需要对子波进行任何时不变或相位等的假设,具有对时变相位的估计能力.进而利用估计时变子波进行非稳态反褶积,提高地震记录的保真度,为精细储层预测和描述提供高质量的剖面.理论模型试算验证了方法的可行性,通过实际地震资料的处理应用,表明该方法能有效地提取出子波时变信息.  相似文献   

基于正则化条件的地震数据局部信噪比估计方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘洋  李炳秀  王典  刘财  武尚 《地球物理学报》2017,60(5):1979-1987

信噪比是衡量地震数据质量的重要指标之一,在地震数据处理和解释中有着重要的作用.目前已有的地震数据信噪比估计方法往往得到的是整个数据的全局信噪比,这种方法只能说明地震数据总体质量的好坏,无法直观细致地刻画地震信号的局部质量.本文提出一种基于正则化条件的局部信噪比估计方法.该方法的基本原理是使用正则化共轭梯度法求解局部信噪比最优解,正则化算子的参数将控制地震信号各点数据局部信噪比的平滑性.其中应用一种基于"过滤波"的级联信号估计方法来计算有效信号,该方法利用有效信号和噪声的相关性特征计算局部信噪比中的有效信号.局部信噪比估计方法利用了信号中每个数据点及其邻域各点的局部信息,避免了使用单个数据点而可能出现的信噪比不合理值,而且局部处理能够减少全局噪声对信噪比估算的影响,该方法可以更准确地表征地震资料信噪分布特征.另外,局部信噪比对去噪方法的评估也具有重要意义.理论模型测试和实际资料处理结果表明,局部信噪比估计方法能够准确反映任一给定地震信号剖面的局部信噪比特征,为非平稳地震数据质量评估提供了直观的评判标准.  相似文献   

The impact of surface‐wave attenuation on 3‐D seismic survey design          下载免费PDF全文

Tomohide Ishiyama  Gerrit Blacquière  Wim A. Mulder 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(1):86-96

Three‐dimensional seismic survey design should provide an acquisition geometry that enables imaging and amplitude‐versus‐offset applications of target reflectors with sufficient data quality under given economical and operational constraints. However, in land or shallow‐water environments, surface waves are often dominant in the seismic data. The effectiveness of surface‐wave separation or attenuation significantly affects the quality of the final result. Therefore, the need for surface‐wave attenuation imposes additional constraints on the acquisition geometry. Recently, we have proposed a method for surface‐wave attenuation that can better deal with aliased seismic data than classic methods such as slowness/velocity‐based filtering. Here, we investigate how surface‐wave attenuation affects the selection of survey parameters and the resulting data quality. To quantify the latter, we introduce a measure that represents the estimated signal‐to‐noise ratio between the desired subsurface signal and the surface waves that are deemed to be noise. In a case study, we applied surface‐wave attenuation and signal‐to‐noise ratio estimation to several data sets with different survey parameters. The spatial sampling intervals of the basic subset are the survey parameters that affect the performance of surface‐wave attenuation methods the most. Finer spatial sampling will reduce aliasing and make surface‐wave attenuation easier, resulting in better data quality until no further improvement is obtained. We observed this behaviour as a main trend that levels off at increasingly denser sampling. With our method, this trend curve lies at a considerably higher signal‐to‐noise ratio than with a classic filtering method. This means that we can obtain a much better data quality for given survey effort or the same data quality as with a conventional method at a lower cost.  相似文献   

Probabilistic development of shear strength model for reinforced concrete squat walls          下载免费PDF全文

Chao‐Lie Ning  Bing Li 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(6):877-897

In order to reconcile the larger scatter and avoid the biased estimate from deterministic predictions for the shear strength of reinforced concrete (RC) squat structural walls, a probabilistic shear strength model is developed in this paper based on the strut‐and‐tie model and the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. The strut‐and‐tie model is used to derive an appropriate function form for the probabilistic shear strength model, where four unknown model parameters (e.g. k₁, k₂, k₃ and k₄) are defined carefully to guarantee them having a clear physical‐based meaning so that the corresponding prior distribution ranges can be specified reasonably. Then, the GLUE method is adopted to estimate the posterior cumulative distribution of k₁, k₂, k₃ and k₄ with an available experimental database. Furthermore, to demonstrate the stability of the estimated posterior cumulative distribution, the sensitivity of three major aspects in GLUE method is investigated. Finally, based on the estimated cumulative distribution of k₁, k₂, k₃ and k₄, the developed probabilistic shear strength model is simplified as a mean prediction model and a standard deviation prediction model for facilitate using in engineering practice. Therefore, with the developed probabilistic shear strength model, not only can the squat structural walls be designed in confidence, but the accuracy of those deterministic predictions can be evaluated in a probabilistic manner. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Methodology for the development of bridge‐specific fragility curves          下载免费PDF全文

Sotiria P. Stefanidou  Andreas J. Kappos 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(1):73-93

A new methodology for the development of bridge‐specific fragility curves is proposed with a view to improving the reliability of loss assessment in road networks and prioritising retrofit of the bridge stock. The key features of the proposed methodology are the explicit definition of critical limit state thresholds for individual bridge components, with consideration of the effect of varying geometry, material properties, reinforcement and loading patterns on the component capacity; the methodology also includes the quantification of uncertainty in capacity, demand and damage state definition. Advanced analysis methods and tools (nonlinear static analysis and incremental dynamic response history analysis) are used for bridge component capacity and demand estimation, while reduced sampling techniques are used for uncertainty treatment. Whereas uncertainty in both capacity and demand is estimated from nonlinear analysis of detailed inelastic models, in practical application to bridge stocks, the demand is estimated through a standard response spectrum analysis of a simplified elastic model of the bridge. The simplified methodology can be efficiently applied to a large number of bridges (with different characteristics) within a road network, by means of an ad hoc developed software involving the use of a generic (elastic) bridge model, which derives bridge‐specific fragility curves. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

低电离层调制激励VLF/ELF辐射参数优化理论分析          下载免费PDF全文

杨巨涛  李清亮  郝书吉  王建国 《地球物理学报》2018,61(2):477-483

针对低电离层幅度调制加热过程中甚低频/极低频（VLF/ELF）激发效率较低的问题,该文利用低电离层调制加热模型分析方波幅度调制加热过程中占空比和加热频率对VLF/ELF辐射效率的影响,在此基础上获得最大VLF/ELF辐射效率下的优化占空比和加热频率选择范围.研究表明,随着调制波占空比的增大,激发的VLF/ELF等效辐射源强度先增大后减小,占空比的优化范围为40%~70%;随着加热频率的增大,激发的VLF/ELF等效辐射源强度先增大后减小,加热频率的优化范围为（0.8~0.9）倍低电离层临界频率.  相似文献   

基于倾角-偏移距域道集的绕射波成像          下载免费PDF全文

李正伟  张剑锋  刘伟 《地球物理学报》2018,61(4):1447-1459

地震绕射波是地下非连续性地质体的地震响应,绕射波成像对地下断层、尖灭和小尺度绕射体的识别具有重要的意义.在倾角域共成像点道集中,反射波同相轴表现为一条下凸曲线,能量主要集中在菲涅耳带内,绕射波能量则比较发散.由于倾角域菲涅耳带随偏移距变化而存在差异,因此本文提出一种在倾角-偏移距域道集中精确估计菲涅耳带的方法,在各偏移距的倾角域共成像点道集中实现菲涅耳带的精确切除,从而压制反射波.在倾角-偏移距域道集中还可以分别实现绕射波增强,绕射波同相轴相位校正,因此能量弱的绕射波可以清晰地成像.在倾角域共成像点道集中,反射波同相轴的最低点对应于菲涅耳带估计所用的倾角,因此本文提出一种在倾角域共成像点道集中直接自动拾取倾角场的方法.理论与实际资料试算验证了本文绕射波成像方法的有效性.  相似文献   

鄱阳湖入湖、出湖污染物通量时空变化及影响因素(2008-2012年)     

刘发根  王仕刚  郭玉银  曹美 《湖泊科学》2014,26(5):641-650

研究鄱阳湖入、出湖污染物通量是加强鄱阳湖及长江水功能区限制纳污红线管理的前提,是建立鄱阳湖水质预测模型的基础.基于2008-2012年鄱阳湖8条主要入湖河流、出湖口的逐月水量、水质同步监测资料,根据污染源特征优选算法,计算总磷(TP)、氨氮(NH3-N)、高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)的入、出湖污染物通量,并分析时空变化特征及影响因素.结果表明:(1)出湖口和乐安河入湖口断面的NH3-N、TP及昌江入湖口断面的TP,以点源污染为主,采用每月瞬时通量作为月平均通量的算法更准确;其余以非点源污染为主,采用瞬时污染物浓度与月平均流量之积来计算月平均通量更准确.(2)2008-2012年CODMn、NH3-N和TP年平均人湖通量分别为304398、53063和9175 t,年平均出湖通量分别为367436、45814和8452t.8条入湖河流每年的入湖水量、CODMn通量和个别年份的NH3-N、TP通量小于出湖,这主要是因为未计算区间产流及相应排污和采砂引起的内源污染.(3)入、出湖污染物通量在年际间主要受水量影响而呈现W型波动变化趋势,CODMn、NH3-N、TP入湖通量及CODMn出湖通量均集中在汛期,NH3-N、TP出湖通量则是冬季较多(低水位下湿地植被净化作用受限).入湖TP、NH3-N、CODMn通量主要来自赣江、信江、乐安河,而NH3-N、TP浓度最高的是乐安河、信江.  相似文献   

砂土液化标贯判别法在天津地区适用性分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

周玉明  赵志峰  张博夫  刘寒鹏 《地震工程学报》2017,39(4):725-730,737

针对天津地区典型的饱和粉土液化判别现状以及抗震设防标准大幅调整的情况,进行标贯判别法的适用性分析。通过收集大量工程钻孔数据,结合唐山地震震后调查研究结果,对比分析国内三种规范标贯法的液化判别效果;并结合Seed简化法对明显液化区、非液化区数据进行液化回判成功率对比。研究结果表明,在Ⅶ度(0.15g)和Ⅷ度(0.20g)条件下,现行《建筑抗震设计规范》(2010版)法在天津地区液化判别的安全度最高,在液化区的判定成功率最高,但在非液化区的误判率也很高,且判定的液化程度等级与实际液化情况相比明显偏重;地标《岩土工程勘察规范》法在液化区的判定成功率较高,与现行抗规2010版接近,但对非液化区的误判率降低比较明显,判定液化程度等级与实际情况吻合性较好,既保证了安全度,又体现出了一定的经济性,对天津地区粉土液化的适用性更好。  相似文献