Impact of climate change on 24‐h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin,East China     

Yue‐Ping Xu  Xujie Zhang  Ye Tian 《水文研究》2012,26(26):4067-4077

The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24‐h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station‐Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, comparison of L‐moment statistics and 24‐h design rainfall depths. Future 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L‐moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011–2030), 2055s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2080–2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24‐h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of ?16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrodynamic effect of the regulation project of Yangtze River deepwater channel downstream of Nanjing     

杨东利  窦希萍  张新周  罗小峰 《中国海洋工程》2013,27(6):767-779

A two-dimensional flow numerical model of the tidal reaches, which total length is more than 700 km, is established from Datong to the Yangtze River estuary. The tidal levels, velocities, diversion ratios and dynamic axes before and after the separate regulation of each reach and combined regulation of all reaches are obtained. The comparative analysis shows that the regulation project of a separate reach basically has no impact on velocity distributions and variations of diversion ratios of upper and lower reaches, the variations of dynamic axes are only within the local scope of the project. The regulation project of a separate reach also has less impact on the water level in the lower adjacent reaches, but will make the water levels in the upper reaches rise. After the implementation of the regulation projects for all reaches, the rise of water level in the upstream reaches will have a cumulative impact.  相似文献   

An Experimental Test of the Capacity of Food Web Interactions (Fish–Epiphytes–Seagrasses) to Offset the Negative Consequences of Eutrophication on Seagrass Communities     

E. Gacia  M. M. Littler  D. S. Littler   《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1999,48(6):757

A mechanism of competition between epiphytes and seagrasses potentially modulated by grazers was studied in a high-nutrient Thalassia testudinum meadow in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida, U.S.A.). The effects of fish grazing on epiphytes, and likely enhancing T. testudinum growth, was tested through an exclusion experiment. Twelve (2×2m) independent experimental plots were selected within a shallow monospecific bed to which three randomized treatments (exclusion fences, open fences and controls) with four replicates each were assigned. The epiphyte load was monitored on T. testudinum leaves inside the plots from January 1995 to March 1996. Treatment effects occurred during a chlorophyte bloom in March 1995, when the epiphyte biomass was significantly higher inside the exclusion cages than in either of the controls. The composition of the epiphytic community in March 1995 was dominated by sheet-like Enteromorpha and filamentous algae such as Cladophora , which are less resistant to herbivory than the coarsely-branched forms of red algae (e.g. Hypnea , Chondria and Acanthophora) that bloomed subsequently. These results suggest that herbivory change seasonally depending on the availability of different prey species to fish-grazers, which preferentially utilize the fleshy green algae typical of bloom conditions over the thicker coarsely-branched red algae. In the nutrient-rich lagoon the role of top-down interactions in enhancing T. testudinum growth is limited to the reduction of shading by green macroalgae.  相似文献   

Suspended‐sediment sources in an urban watershed,Northeast Branch Anacostia River,Maryland     

Olivia H. Devereux  Karen L. Prestegaard  Brian A. Needelman  Allen C. Gellis 《水文研究》2010,24(11):1391-1403

Fine sediment sources were characterized by chemical composition in an urban watershed, the Northeast Branch Anacostia River, which drains to the Chesapeake Bay. Concentrations of 63 elements and two radionuclides were measured in possible land‐based sediment sources and suspended sediment collected from the water column at the watershed outlet during storm events. These tracer concentrations were used to determine the relative quantity of suspended sediment contributed by each source. Although this is an urbanized watershed, there was not a distinct urban signature that can be evaluated except for the contributions from road surfaces. We identified the sources of fine sediment by both physiographic province (Piedmont and Coastal Plain) and source locale (streambanks, upland and street residue) by using different sets of elemental tracers. The Piedmont contributed the majority of the fine sediment for seven of the eight measured storms. The streambanks contributed the greatest quantity of fine sediment when evaluated by source locale. Street residue contributed 13% of the total suspended sediment on average and was the source most concentrated in anthropogenically enriched elements. Combining results from the source locale and physiographic province analyses, most fine sediment in the Northeast Branch watershed is derived from streambanks that contain sediment eroded from the Piedmont physiographic province of the watershed. Sediment fingerprinting analyses are most useful when longer term evaluations of sediment erosion and storage are also available from streambank‐erosion measurements, sediment budget and other methods. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Luminescence chronology of late Holocene extreme hydrological events in the upper Penner River basin,South India     

Puthusserry J. Thomas  Navin Juyal  Vishwas S. Kale  Ashok K. Singhvi 《第四纪科学杂志》2007,22(8):747-753

Field stratigraphy, sedimentology and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating have been used to reconstruct the southwest monsoon variability in the semi‐arid region of southern India during the late Holocene. Facies architecture and OSL dating of the water‐lain sediment suggest prevalence of a weak hydrological regime around 3 ka. Following this, a progressive strengthening of monsoon occurred till 2 ka. After 2 ka and until 1 ka fluvial activity was nearly dormant, indicating weakening of the monsoon. Presence of high‐magnitude flood deposits, overbank sedimentation and pedogenesis during 1–0.6 ka indicate intensification of the southwest monsoon in the basin. The onset of aridity was associated with episodic storm surge events that are manifested in the pond sedimentation and localised aeolian accretion. This phase is bracketed between 0.5 ka and 0.2 ka. A renewed phase of monsoonal activity was observed in the form of floodplain aggradation between 180 and 90 years ago. In the past 70 years no significant change in the monsoon performance has been observed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

CHINA’S FOUR MAJOR METEOROLOGICAL SCIENTIFIC EXPERIMENTS     

Ma Henian  Tang Xu 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1999,13(2):129-140

China lies in East-Asian monsoon region,which is one of the well-known active monsoon zones around the world.Monsoon anomaly results in frequent natural disasters,such as drought,torrential rain and flood.In 1998,joint intensified observations for 4 major meteorological scientific experiments have been carried out over Chinese major monsoon affected areas.A number of valuable data have been obtained and some observational facts have come out after initial analysis.The present paper is to give an introduction to the 4 major meteorological scientific experiments conducted in 1998 in China.including its origin and scientific goals,implementation and planning,equipment and progress,and initial findings from the important observational facts.It aims to provide a comprehensive report on the progress of the above experiments for those who are interested in.  相似文献   

Application of linear and nonlinear techniques in river flow forecasting in the Kilombero River basin,Tanzania / Application de techniques linéaires et non-linéaires à la prévision des débits dans le bassin de la Rivière Kilombero,en Tanzanie     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)

Abstract

Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations.  相似文献   

Temporal trends of hydro‐climatic variables and runoff response to climatic variability and vegetation changes in the Yiluo River basin,China     

Qiang Liu  Zhifeng Yang  Baoshan Cui  Tao Sun 《水文研究》2009,23(21):3030-3039

The Yiluo River is the largest tributary for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River below Sanmenxia Dam. Changes of the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin, influenced by the climatic variability and human activities, can directly affect ecological integrity in the lower reach of the Yellow River. Understanding the impact of the climatic variability and human activities on the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin is especially important to maintain the ecosystem integrity and sustain the society development in the lower reach of the Yellow River basin. In this study, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) and runoff during 1961–2000 in the Yiluo River basin were explored by the Mann‐Kendall method (M‐K method), Yamamoto method and linear fitted model. The impacts of the climatic variability and vegetation changes on the annual runoff were discussed by the empirical model and simple water balance model and their contribution to change of annual runoff have been estimated. Results indicated that (i) significant upwards trend for air temperature and significant downwards trend both for precipitation and ET₀ were detected by the M‐K method at 95% confidence level. And the consistent trends were obtained by the linear fitted model; (ii) the abrupt change started from 1987 detected by the M‐K method and Yamamoto method, and so the annual runoff during 1961–2000 was divided into two periods: baseline period (1961–1986) and changeable period (1987–2000); and (iii) the vegetation changes were the main cause for change of annual runoff from baseline period to changeable period, and climatic variability contributed a little to the change of annual runoff of the Yiluo River. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Discharge and suspended sediment transport in the Ayeyarwady River,Myanmar: centennial and decadal changes     

T. Furuichi  Z. Win  R. J. Wasson 《水文研究》2009,23(11):1631-1641

Among the large rivers rising on the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent high mountains, the discharge and suspended sediment load of the Ayeyarwady (Irrawaddy) River are the least well known. Data collected between 1969 and 1996 at Pyay (Prome) are analysed to provide the best available modern estimate of discharge (379 ± 47 × 10⁹ m³/year) and suspended sediment load (325 ± 57 × 10⁶ t/year) for the river upstream of the delta head. A statistical comparison with data collected in the nineteenth century (1871 to 1879) shows discharge has significantly decreased in the last ～100 years. Regression and correlation analyses between discharge in the modern period and indices of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show a relationship. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Heavy metal pollution of coastal river sediments, north-eastern New South Wales, Australia: lead isotope and chemical evidence     

B. G. Lottermoser 《Environmental Geology》1998,36(1-2):118-126

 Heavy metal and metalloid concentrations within stream-estuary sediments (<180-μm size fraction) in north-eastern New South Wales largely represent natural background values. However, element concentrations (Ag, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, Zn) of Hunter River sediments within the heavily industrialized and urbanized Newcastle region exceed upstream background values by up to one order of magnitude. High element concentrations have been found within sediments of the Newcastle Harbour and Throsby Creek which drains into urbanized and light industry areas. Observed Pb enrichments and low ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios are likely caused by atmospheric deposition of Pb additives from petrol and subsequent Pb transport by road run-off waters into the local drainage system. Sediments of the Richmond River and lower Manning, Macleay, Clarence, Brunswick and Tweed River generally display no evidence for anthropogenic heavy metal and metalloid contamination (Ag, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, Zn). However, the rivers and their tributaries possess localized sedimentary traps with elevated heavy metal concentrations (Cu, Pb, Zn). Lead isotope data indicate that anthropogenic Pb provides a detectable contribution to investigated sediments. Such contributions are evident at sample sites close to sewage outlets and in the vicinity of the Pacific Highway. In addition, As concentrations of Richmond River sediments gradually increase downstream. This geochemical trend may be the result of As mobilization from numerous cattle-dip sites within the region into the drainage system and subsequent accumulation of As in downstream river and estuary sediments. Received: 5 September 1997 · Accepted: 4 November 1997  相似文献