论气象服务的社会效益     

黄宗捷 《成都信息工程学院学报》1996,(4)

气象服务的社会效益是由气象服务产品的公共消费性所决定的；气象服务产品生产与消费的投入同ＧＮＰ的增量这两者的比较即是服务社会效益的宏观经济概括；决策效益、公众效益与专项效益是气象服务社会效益的重要分类；从气象服务产品的有用性与气象信息的错情率及准确率三方面出发分析，可建立起气象服务社会效益的评价模型  相似文献   

基于网络服务的地理数据库构建和应用研究     

毛炜青 《测绘软科学研究》2011,(4):78-80

扼要分析了地理数据库的概念和当前社会对地理信息服务的需求,据此研究了以地理要素符号化表达为核心的地理数据库的构建和维护方法,对地形图的自动缩编进行了尝试,解决了在桌面软件上使用不同层次的地理信息服务等问题。  相似文献   

Scepticism and uncertainty about climate change: Dimensions, determinants and change over time   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Lorraine Whitmarsh 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):690-700

While scientific consensus and political and media messages appear to be increasingly certain, public attitudes and action towards the issue do not appear to be following suit. Popular and academic debate often assumes this is due to ignorance or misunderstanding on the part of the public, but some studies have suggested political beliefs and values may play a more important role in determining belief versus scepticism about climate change. The current research used two representative postal surveys of the UK public to: measure scepticism and uncertainty about climate change; determine how scepticism varies according to individual characteristics, knowledge and values; and examine how scepticism has changed over time. Findings show denial of climate change is less common than the perception that the issue has been exaggerated. Scepticism was found to be strongly determined by individuals’ environmental and political values (and indirectly by age, gender, location and lifestyle) rather than by education or knowledge. Between 2003 and 2008, public uncertainty about climate change has remained remarkably constant, although belief that claims about the issue are exaggerated has doubled over that period. These results are interpreted with reference to psychological concepts of motivated reasoning, confirmation bias and ‘finite pool of worry’. Implications for communication and policy are discussed.  相似文献   

基于审查回归模型的公众气象服务支付意愿影响因素分析——以无锡、武汉和西安为例     

管叶莉  吴先华  赵飞 《气象与减灾研究》2011,(4):50-56

采用审查回归模型,分别选取了中国东、中、西部的三个典型城市无锡、武汉和西安,计算了三城市受访者的支付意愿值,并对其影响因素进行了分析.结果表明:(1)支付意愿值与地区经济发展水平直接相关.无锡、武汉和西安受访者的支付意愿分别为21.68,17.15和10.07元/年;(2)年龄越长者,由于其天气知识更丰富、日常消费较节...  相似文献   

Subsidies,public goods,and external benefits in fisheries     

《Marine Policy》2014

The fisheries subsidy discussion has largely overlooked the increased welfare for society from Pigouvian subsidies that increase the supply of and investment in public goods when there are external benefits and free riding. Important fisheries public goods and external benefits include knowledge associated with new technology for “target” species and “bycatch” reduction, research and development for new technology, and ecosystem services and biodiversity. Careful definition of subsidies also requires consideration of the counter-factual or what would have happened without the action to which the fishery “subsidy” is attributed. Subsidies in the Western and Central Pacific tuna fishery are evaluated according to these and other criteria.  相似文献   

Perceptions of sub-seabed carbon dioxide storage in Scotland and implications for policy: A qualitative study     

《Marine Policy》2014

The geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂) offers notable potential, as part of larger carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) processes, to be a significant climate change mitigation technology. This paper challenges the argument often put forward that, due to the greater distances from centres of population, it will be ‘easier’ to garner public and stakeholder support for offshore CO₂ storage than onshore. Based on the results of research interviews carried out with stakeholders and informed publics in Scotland, challenges for public and stakeholder acceptance of sub-seabed CO₂ storage that may require further policy attention are identified. Whilst existing policy for sub-seabed CO₂ storage is cognisant of the need for societal engagement, it may be the case that these regulations may need further reinforcement to ensure future developments are able to address social acceptability issues as fully as possible. The value of taking into account social as well as physical characteristics at the site selection phase, the need for mechanisms to take seriously stakeholder conceptions of uncertainty, and the importance of extending social engagement beyond risk communication are discussed.  相似文献   

Funding public adaptation to climate-related disasters. Estimates for a global fund     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

Managing disaster risk is increasingly being considered a key line of response in climate adaptation. While funding support for adaptation has been pledged, rationales for support and cost implications are essentially unclear, which may explain why financing is currently only forthcoming at low levels. Various estimates for the costs of adaptation have been suggested, yet the rationale and robustness of the estimates have been difficult to verify. Focusing on weather-related extreme events, we conduct a global assessment of the public finance costs for financially managing extreme event risks. In doing so, we assess countries’ fiscal disaster vulnerability, which we operationalize as the public sector's ability to pay for relief to the affected population and support the reconstruction of lost assets and infrastructure. Methods employed include minimum-distance techniques to estimate the tail behaviour of country disaster risks as well as the inclusion of non-linear loss and financing resources relationships. We find that many countries appear fiscal vulnerable and would require assistance from the donor community in order to bolster their fiscal resilience. Our estimates may inform decisions pertaining to a global fund for absorbing different levels of country risks. We find the costs of funds covering different risk layers to be in the lower billions of dollars annually, compared to estimates of global climate adaptation which reach to more than USD 100 billion annually. Our estimates relate to today's climate, and while disaster losses have currently not been robustly linked to climate change, physical science has made a strong case in attributing changes in climate extremes to anthropogenic Climate Change. We suggest that estimates of current weather variability and related risks, although also associated with substantial uncertainty, can be interpreted as a baseline for discussion and any future projections of risks.  相似文献   

Public engagement with marine climate change issues: (Re)framings,understandings and responses     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

Climate change impacts on marine environments have been somewhat neglected in climate change research, particularly with regard to their social dimensions and implications. This paper contributes to addressing this gap through presenting a UK focused mixed-method study of how publics frame, understand and respond to marine climate change-related issues. It draws on data from a large national survey of UK publics (N = 1,001), undertaken in January 2011 as part of a wider European survey, in conjunction with in-depth qualitative insights from a citizens’ panel with participants from the East Anglia region, UK. This reveals that discrete marine climate change impacts, as often framed in technical or institutional terms, were not the most immediate or significant issues for most respondents. Study participants tended to view these climate impacts ‘in context’, in situated ways, and as entangled with other issues relating to marine environments and their everyday lives. Whilst making connections with scientific knowledge on the subject, public understandings of marine climate impacts were mainly shaped by personal experience, the visibility and proximity of impacts, sense of personal risk and moral or equity-based arguments. In terms of responses, study participants prioritised climate change mitigation measures over adaptation, even in high-risk areas. We consider the implications of these insights for research and practices of public engagement on marine climate impacts specifically, and climate change more generally.  相似文献   

基于公众天气预报预测塑料大棚逐日极端气温   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

邹学智  申双和  曹雯  段春锋  李倩 《气象科学》2014,34(2):187-192

利用浙江省慈溪市的公众天气预报和草莓大棚内极端气温的观测数据,构建一个以室外日最高气温、最低气温、相对湿度、最大风级、白天和夜间天空状况作为输入变量,棚内日最高气温和日最低气温作为输出变量的BP神经网络预测模型。用以预测草莓大棚室内日最高气温和日最低气温。结果表明,该模型对大棚内日最高气温、日最低气温的训练值和实测值之间的均方根误差分别为4.0℃和1.3℃,绝对误差则分别为3.2℃和1.0℃;日最高气温和日最低气温的预测值和实测值之间的均方根误差分别为3.6℃和1.2℃,绝对误差为3.0℃和1.0℃。该模型数据获取方便,实用性强,模拟精度较高,可以较准确的预测未来温室内的极端气温,为温室管理和调控提供依据。  相似文献   

Determinants of public goods investment in rural communities in mountainous areas of Sichuan Province,China     

Shi-li Guo  Shao-quan Liu  Ren-fu Luo  Lin-xiu Zhang 《山地科学学报》2014,11(3):816-824

This study aims to investigate two important issues： what are the determinants of public goods investment and what is the government＇s investment behavior in mountainous areas. The impacts of natural conditions, target, and demand elements on public goods investment are analyzed with statistical method, and the determinants of public goods investment in the areas are obtained by using population-weighted and stepwise regression models with Eviews6.0 software with survey data in 2008 and calculated data based on GIS of 20 typical villages in mountainous regions in Sichuan, China. The results showed： （1） natural conditions are the important determinants of public investment. Mountainous villages with steep slope have relatively high levels of investment; （2） concentration of population and the educational levels of the village leaders also have important impacts on public goods investment; （3） the government is more concerned with public investment resources particularly in areas characterized by fragile ecological environment and poor agricultural output. These results suggest that the current investment strategy helps to reduce disparities in regional development.  相似文献