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111.
Stefan Wiemer Domenico Giardini Donat Fäh Nicholas Deichmann Souad Sellami 《Journal of Seismology》2009,13(4):449-478
We present the results of a new genera tion of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Switzerland. This study replaces
the previous intensity-based generation of national hazard maps of 1978. Based on a revised moment-magnitude earthquake catalog
for Switzerland and the surrounding regions, covering the period 1300–2003, sets of recurrence parameters (a and b values, M
max ) are estimated. Information on active faulting in Switzerland is too sparse to be used as source model. We develop instead
two models of areal sources. The first oriented towards capturing historical and instrumental seismicity, the second guided
largely by tectonic principles and express ing the alterative view that seismicity is less stationary and thus future activity
may occur in previously quiet regions. To estimate three alterna tive a and b value sets and their relative weighting, we introduce a novel approach based on the modified Akaike information criterion,
which allows us to decide when the data in a zone deserves to be fitted with a zone-specific b value. From these input parameters, we simulate synthetic earthquake catalogs of one-million-year duration down to magnitude
4.0, which also reflect the difference in depth distribution between the Alpine Foreland and the Alps. Using a specific predictive
spectral ground motion model for Switzerland, we estimate expected ground motions in units of the 5% damped acceleration response
spectrum at frequencies of 0.5–10 Hz for all of Switzerland, referenced to rock sites with an estimated shear wave velocity
of 1,500 m/s2 in the upper 30 m. The highest hazard is found in the Wallis, in the Basel region, in Graubünden and along the Alpine front,
with maximum spectral accelerations at 5 Hz frequency reaching 150 cm/s2 for a return period of 475 years and 720 cm/s2 for 10,000 years.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
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Nicolas Deichmann Manfred Baer Jochen Braunmiller Cécile Cornou Donat Fäh Domenico Giardini Monika Gisler Sarah Huber Stephan Husen Philipp Kästli Urs Kradolfer Martin Mai Silvio Maraini Ivo Oprsal Thomas Schler Danijel Schorlemmer Stefan Wiemer Jochen Wössner Adrian Wyss 《Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae》2004,97(3):447-458
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A multiarchive approach has been applied to the investigation of the late Pleistocene and Holocene record of strong earthquakes in Switzerland. The geological archives used for this study include active faults, lake deposits, slope instabilities, and caves. In the Basle area, eight trenches were opened across the Basle–Reinach fault, nearby rockfall deposits were systematically investigated, sediment cores were taken from two lakes, and nine caves were studied. In Central Switzerland, five lakes were investigated by means of high-resolution seismic lines and sediment cores. Furthermore, three caves were studied in Central Switzerland. Altogether, the investigations are based on more than 350 km of high-resolution reflection seismic lines, 450 m of core samples, 260 m of trenches, and 245 radiocarbon age determinations. The measured co-seismic displacements along the Basle–Reinach fault supply independent information for the magnitude of the AD 1356 Basle earthquake exclusively based on geological evidence. Deformation features related to three well-documented strong historic earthquake shocks were identified. Deformation features of the AD 1774 Altdorf and AD 1601 Unterwalden earthquakes can be used to calibrate paleoseismic evidence in Central Switzerland. Altogether, traces of 13 earthquakes could be found in the two study areas, all of them with magnitudes Mw 6 or greater. For the first time, the earthquake catalogue for Switzerland can be extended back beyond historic records, into the late Pleistocene, spanning 15,000 years. 相似文献
116.
Landslide risk management in Switzerland 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
117.
Sven Fuchs Magdalena Thöni Maria Christina McAlpin Urs Gruber Michael Bründl 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(1):113-129
This paper demonstrates the application of cost effectiveness analysis and cost benefit analysis to alternative avalanche
risk reduction strategies in Davos, Switzerland. The advantages as well as limitations of such analysis for natural hazards
planning are discussed with respect to 16 avalanche risk reduction strategies. Scenarios include risk reduction measures that
represent the main approaches to natural hazards planning in Switzerland, such as technical, organisational, and land use
planning measures. The methodologies used outline how concepts and techniques from risk analysis, hazard mapping, Geographic
Information System, and economics can be interdisciplinary combined. The results suggest important considerations, such as
possible sources of uncertainty due to different choices in the calculation of cost effectiveness ratio and net present value.
Given the parameters and assumptions, it seems as if the current approach to avalanche risk reduction in the study area approximates
to economic and cost efficiency and serves the aim of reducing risk to human fatalities. 相似文献
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