强震的孕育规律与孕震模式     

秦四清  熊巨华  薛雷  黄鑫  王媛媛  泮晓华 《西安地质学院学报》2011,(3):311-316

针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,发现强震孕育过程的指数规律：sf（k）=1.48ksc,其中sf（k）和sc分别为第k个锁固体断裂点与第一个锁固段膨胀起点对应的累加Be-nioff应变,可以利用锁固段在其变形膨胀点处开始发生的震群事件（加速性地震活动前兆）预测未来大震,并给出了强震四要素相关预测方法。通过对诸多历史强震（如邢台地震、海城地震、汶川地震、玉树地震等）的回溯性检验分析表明：强震可以预测,且其孕震过程都遵循着上述简单的共性力学规律。在此基础上,归纳出4种典型强震的孕震模式,即大震震级呈＂大—小—大＂型,大震震级呈连续上升型,锁固段快速连续破裂型与标准型。此外,根据相关强震预测理论方法,对有关抗震救灾未来研究的方向提出如下建议：建议加强活动断裂位置精确定位、性质判定的地震地质研究,并开展孕震区锁固段（闭锁区域）判识的地质与地球物理研究等。  相似文献   

粒子群神经网络混合模型在农用地分等中的应用     

马世发  何建华  念沛豪  张雄宇 《地理与地理信息科学》2011,27(1):105-108,115

针对常规农用地分等模型因子权重计算存在人为干扰和神经网络模型自身优化过程中易陷入局部最优的情况,该文综合了BP神经网络非线性权重数据挖掘特性和粒子群的全局优化能力,建立了农用地分等计算的粒子群神经网络混合模型(PSO-BP网络模型),并应用于广东省揭西县农用地分等计算中,发现PSO-BP网络模型能避免定级因子权重确定的人为干扰,同时具有较高的优化效率,应用效果较好。  相似文献   

云南地区地震序列分类的定量讨论   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

蔡静观  王兴辉  雷素华  张喜玲 《高原地震》1996,(2)

本文通过对云南地区１９６５提以来１１６次大小地震序列的清理和归纳，引入了地震序列分类的时空强定量尺度，提出；表明震源区进人失稳状态的前震序列主要发生在主震前１０天，前震序列的最大震级５．５级；震群型地震序列在时间、地点上的确定应与震级有关，在时间上以同在地震孕期内为宜，７、６、５级分别不超过１年、半年、３个月，在地点上以同在地震孕震区内为２，７、６、５级分别不超过１００、５０、３０公里，震级上以小子等于０．５级为宜；主余震地震序列和孤立型地震序列的最大震级差分别是２．９级和３．３级  相似文献   

乔治王岛东北海域大磷虾虾群构成分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王荣  陈时华 《极地研究》1988,1(2):15-21

1985年1月在乔治王岛东北约25海里(水深460米)海域,曾观测到范围较大的大磷虾群.在约4海里范围内用垂直探鱼仪记录了虾群的映象,进行了水平拖网.对6网样品的分析结果表明,虾群组成相当均一.体长频数分布样品间的百分比相似性指数平均为84.3%,性成熟度组成频数分布的相似性指数平均为75.6%,说明这些样品属同一虾群.磷虾平均体长为46.8毫米,成体虾占群体的96.5%,表明它们为一生殖群体.群体分布水层在20—50米深,厚度一般为20米,平均密度为1400尾/千立方米.  相似文献   

2004年6月甘肃临泽震群地震精确定位   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

莘海亮  张元生  郭晓  李稳 《地震工程学报》2008,30(1):71-74

利用"双差地震定位法"对2004年6月甘肃临泽发生的地震震群进行了精确定位,结合地质构造资料讨论了本次震群的发震构造.结果表明:该震群震中沿着榆木山北缘断裂呈NNW向分布,震源深度优势分布于10～25 km,平均深度为16.3 km;发震断裂为榆木山北缘断裂东段局部断裂,走向NNW,倾向SW,倾角约为60°.  相似文献   

Earthquake swarms at Upptyppingar,north-east Iceland: A sign of magma intrusion?     

S. S. Jakobsdóttir  M. J. Roberts  G. B. Guđmundsson  H. Geirsson  R. Slunga 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2008,52(4):513-528

In 2007, intense swarms of deep, tectonic earthquakes, amounting to at least 5 300 epicentres, were detected near to Mount Upptyppingar, which forms part of the Kverkfjöll volcano system in Iceland’s Northern Volcanic Zone. Although micro-seismicity is common within such volcanic regions, the Upptyppingar swarms have been more intensive and persistent than any other deep-seated seismicity observed in Iceland. Here we outline the spatial and temporal changes in ongoing seismicity that began in February 2007; in addition, we document enhanced levels of GPS-derived crustal deformation, recorded within 25 km of the area of swarming. Besides displaying spatial clustering, the Upptyppingar micro-earthquakes are noteworthy because: (i) they concentrate at focal depths of 14–22 km; (ii) the swarms comprise brittle-type earthquakes < 2 in magnitude, yielding a b-value of 2.1; and (iii) several of the swarms originate at focal depths exceeding 18 km. Additionally, different parts of the affected region have exhibited seismicity at different times, with swarm sites alternating between distinct areas. The activity moved with time towards east-north-east and to shallower depths. Linear regression approximates the seismicity on a southward-dipping, ～41° plane. Alongside sustained earthquake activity, significant horizontal displacement was registered at two permanent GPS stations in the region. High strain rates are required to explain brittle fracturing under visco-elastic conditions within the Earth’s crust; similarly, intense, localised deformation at considerable depth is necessary to reconcile the measured surface deformation. Such remarkable seismicity and localised deformation suggests that magma is ascending into the base of the crust.  相似文献   

Mechanical intrusion models and their implications for the possibility of magma-driven swarms in NW Bohemia Region     

T. Dahm  T. Fischer  S. Hainzl 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2008,52(4):529-548

Earthquake swarms are often assumed to be caused by magmatic or fluid intrusions, where the stress changes in the vicinity of the intrusion control the position, strength and rate of seismicity. Fracture mechanical models of natural intrusions or man-made hydrofractures pose constraints on orientation, magnitude, shape and growing rate of fractures and can be used to estimate stress changes in the vicinity of the intrusions. Although the idea of intrusion-induced seismicity is widely accepted, specific comparisons of seismicity patterns with fracture models of stress changes are rarely done. The goal of the study is to review patterns of intrusion-induced earthquake swarms in comparison to the observations of the swarm in NW Bohemia in 2000. We analyse and discuss the theoretical 3D shape of intrusions under mixed mode loading and apparent buoyancy. The aspect ratio and form of the intrusion is used to constrain parameters of the fluid, the surrounding rock and stress. We conclude that the 2000 NW Bohemia swarm could have been driven by a magmatic intrusion. The intrusion was, however, inclined to the maximal principal stress and caused shear displacement additional to opening. We estimate that the density diference between magma and rock was small. The feeding reservoir was possibly much larger than the area affected from earthquakes and may be a vertical dike beneath the swarm region.  相似文献   

Optimal design of structures for earthquake loads by a hybrid RBF-BPSO method     

Eysa Salajegheh  Saeed Gholizadeh  Mohsen Khatibinia 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2008,7(1):13-24

The optimal seismic design of structures requires that time history analyses （THA） be carried out repeatedly. This makes the optimal design process inefficient, in particular, if an evolutionary algorithm is used. To reduce the overall time required for structural optimization, two artificial intelligence strategies are employed. In the first strategy, radial basis function （RBF） neural networks are used to predict the time history responses of structures in the optimization flow. In the second strategy, a binary particle swarm optimization （BPSO） is used to find the optimum design. Combining the RBF and BPSO, a hybrid RBF-BPSO optimization method is proposed in this paper, which achieves fast optimization with high computational performance. Two examples are presented and compared to determine the optimal weight of structures under earthquake loadings using both exact and approximate analyses. The numerical results demonstrate the computational advantages and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid RBF-BPSO optimization method for the seismic design of structures.  相似文献   

汶川8.0级与昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动异常特征与启示   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

梅世蓉  薛艳  宋治平 《地震》2009,29(1):1-14

两次特大地震前在不同时段、 不同范围出现了多项相似的地震活动性异常, 它们对预测特大地震具有一定意义: ① 两次大震前10余年, 青藏块体同期出现了两个规模巨大的中强以上地震增强区, 两次大地震发生在增强区内的空区里; ② 两次巨大地震前数年, 形成规模巨大的中强地震活动带, 地震发生在两个条带间的平静区里; 同期形成中等以上地震活动环, 其内部的地震频度、 加卸载响应比及非均匀度等参数甚高, 且随时间而变化, 这可作为孕震进入中期的信号; ③ 两次大震前的震群、 震丛均很显著, 昆仑山口西地震前四个显著震丛环绕震中四周分布, 汶川地震前震群在震中周围形成包围圈, 它们应视为大震孕育进入后期的显示; ④ 大震前数月, 靠近发震断裂带发生少量中小地震或少见的震群。 汶川地震前10个月, 龙门山断裂带北部发生两次青川4级多地震和松潘4.3级地震, 南部康定附近发生3次4级以上地震。 紫坪铺水库区小震群于震前3个月活动十分强烈。 昆仑山口西地震前约1年青海兴海发生6.6级地震, 昆仑山口西发生5.1级地震, 该地震距离8.1级地震约30 km。这些特征给我们的重要启示是: ① 特大地震前出现的前兆时空特征与常见的中强地震差异很大, 现行的监测预报体制(分省分片负责)与特大地震前兆不相适应; ② 特大地震的预测预报不能单纯依靠地震前兆, 必须与地质构造及深部探测紧密结合起来; ③ 特大地震的预测预报应有新的预报战略、 观测系统与组织机构相适应。  相似文献   

地球物理资料群体智能反演(英文)   总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2  

袁三一  王尚旭  田楠 《应用地球物理》2009,6(2):166-174

复杂地球物理资料的反演问题往往是一个求解多参数非线性多极值的最优解问题。而鸟和蚂蚁等群体觅食的过程,正好与寻找地球物理反演最优解的过程相似。基于自然界群体协调寻优的思想,本文提出了交叉学科的群体智能地球物理资料反演方法,并给出了其对应的数学模型。用一个有无限多个局部最优解的已知模型对该类方法进行了试验。然后,将它们应用到了不同的复杂地球物理反演问题中:(1)对噪声敏感的线性问题;(2)非线性和线性同步反演问题;(3)非线性问题。反演结果表明,群体智能反演是可行的。与常规遗传算法和模拟退火法相比,该类方法有收敛速度相对快、收敛精度相对高等优点;与拟牛顿法和列文伯格一马夸特法相比,该类方法有能跳出局部最优解等优点。  相似文献