数值预报产品动力-统计释用方法与寒潮预报   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈静  桑志勤 《气象》1998,24(2):34-38

从气温变化的物理过程出发,设计了一种数值预报产品的动力－统计释用方法,开发了一套四川盆地寒潮入侵时间和降温幅度的释用方案,并利用ＥＣＭＷＦ产品建立四川盆地寒潮自动预报系统,滚动预报未来１～６日内的寒潮过程。１９９５～１９９７年投入中短期业务运行,取得了显著效果。  相似文献   

THE INFLUENCE OF PHOTOCHEMICAL PROCESS ON THE ATMOSPHERIC WAVE^*          下载免费PDF全文

Xu Jiyao  Wang Yingjian 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1998,12(4):459-462

The time damping rate of gravity wave in the range of 30-70 km is calaclated in three circumstances:(1) adiabatic process,(2) diabatic process caused by atmospheric cooling,and(3) diabatic process resulting from atmospheric photochemical heating and cooling.The results indicate that the photochemical heating is as important as Newtonian cooling and its contribution to the time damping rate of gravity wave can not he negligible.  相似文献   

THE INFLUENCE OF PHOTOCHEMICAL PROCESS ON THE ATMOSPHERIC WAVE     

徐寄遥  王英鉴 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1998,(4)

The time damping rate of gravity wave in the range of 30-70 km is calaclated in threecircumstances:(1)adiabatic process,(2)diabatic process caused by atmospheric cooling,and(3)diabatic process resulting from atmospheric photochemical heating and cooling.The resultsindicate that the photochemical heating is as important as Newtonian cooling and its contribution tothe time damping rate of gravity wave can not he negligible.  相似文献   

大气低频遥相关及其水平传播机制的解析研究     

薛凡炳 《热带气象学报》1998,14(2):126-134

（１）利用大气对流层中部无辐散层的存在,垂直积分热力学方程,并对整个对流层的距平加热场作解析近似的描写,联立涡度方程,得到最非绝热地转的２５０ｈＰａ距平流函数方程。它的形式酷似正压涡度方程。（２）讨论了罗斯贝波列的谱平均相速和群速。证明了气候平均高度场的闭合中心,就是中高纬度大气低频振子。其两侧位相变化相反,它的能源主要来自ＣＩＳＫ凝结正反馈或海温的感热。（３）导出了低频相关射线公式,它表明低频射  相似文献   

赤道不同海域对信风张弛的响应特征——对El Nio研究的启示     

巢纪平  张丽 《大气科学》1998,(4)

当均匀的纬圈风应力作用于赤道海洋时,在东、西边界附近由于平衡的物理过程不同,其响应特征也不同。当盛吹一个方向的风时,例如东风,东边界的温跃层会变浅（冷水）,而西边界的温跃层变深。当东风吹了ｔ０时间而改吹西风时,无论东边界的温跃层还是西边界的温跃层都要持续到２ｔ０时间后,才改变其发展方向。这表明边界上的物理场带有长的“惯性”或长的“记忆”。但西边界信号向东传播的速度比东边界向西传播的速度要快,且振幅也大,从这个意义上讲,ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件先兆从西边界附近出现后,能迅速影响到西、中太平洋,也即西边界附近更易成为ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件的源地,特别是强的ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件。  相似文献   

异常东亚冬季风激发ENSO的数值模拟研究   总被引：40，自引：11，他引：29  

李崇银  穆明权 《大气科学》1998,22(4):481-490

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所发展的热带太平洋环流模式（OGCM）和海－气耦合模式（CGCM）分别就冬半年东亚冬季风异常对赤道太平洋的作用进行了数值模拟研究。结果清楚地表明,无论在 OGCM 中还是在 CGCM 中,持续的冬季风强异常将引起赤道中东太平洋海表水温（SST）的明显正异常,其分布类似观测到的El Ni?o事件;而持续的冬季风弱异常将引起赤道中东太平洋SST的明显负异常,其分布十分类似观测到的La Ni?a事件。因此,数值模拟进一步证实了我们过去从资料诊断和理论分析中得到的结论,即东亚冬季风异常是激发产生 ENSO 的重要机制。对模式资料的分析还清楚表明,异常东亚冬季风将激发异常海洋Kelvin波和使热带大气季节内振荡出现强异常,它们是激发ENSO的重要物理因素,这与观测资料的分析结果相一致。  相似文献   

冬季菲律宾周围对流活动与北太平洋风暴轴联系的数值模拟   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

胡增臻  黄荣辉 《大气科学》1998,22(1):46-56

通过利用IAP 2-L AGCM进行的数值模拟,进一步揭示了冬季菲律宾周围对流活动异常对北太平洋风暴轴变化的影响及其二者联系的物理机制和物理过程。结果表明:当菲律宾周围对流活动增强时,在500 hPa等压面图上强迫产生一个自赤道西太平洋开始,经我国东部、堪察加半岛、白令海,到美国西海岸的异常波列;位于西太平洋的经向三圈环流增强,位置北移;在风暴轴的西半部和东端斜压性增强;从而导致了北太平洋风暴轴增强、北抬、东伸。  相似文献   

哀牢山变质带元江──墨江剖面岩石的纵波波速特征及其地质意义   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

周文戈  谢鸿森  赵志丹  李玉文  郭捷  许祖鸣 《地球物理学报》1998,41(Z1):48-54

依据研究区的地热梯度（25℃／km）,在高温高压（最高温度为1050℃,最高压力为1.2GPa）条件下系统测量了横穿红河-哀牢山断裂带的元江-墨江地质剖面上的哀牢山岩群各类变质岩（千枚岩、片岩、浅粒岩、变粒岩、大理岩和片麻岩）的纵波速度．实验结果表明,不同岩类的纵波速度随温度压力变化的趋势不同．在相当于衷牢山岩群变质岩峰期变质温度和压力条件下（P=0．4-0.8GPa,T=35-700℃）,测得大部分岩石的纵波速度为5．50－5．80km／s,这一纵波速度值与区域地球物理测深揭示的中地壳低速层的纵波速度相当因此,结合该区变质岩、地壳内热状态及地球物理测深研究成果可初步认为：组成哀牢山岩群的浅粒岩、变粒岩、酸性片麻岩以及部分千枚岩、片岩为该地区中地壳低速层的主要岩石类型．  相似文献   

Derivation of a curve number and kinematic-wave based flood frequency distribution     

R. S. KUROTHE  N. K. GOEL  B. S. MATHUR 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):571-584

Abstract

The physically-based flood frequency models use readily available rainfall data and catchment characteristics to derive the flood frequency distribution. In the present study, a new physically-based flood frequency distribution has been developed. This model uses bivariate exponential distribution for rainfall intensity and duration, and the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method for deriving the probability density function (pdf) of effective rainfall. The effective rainfall-runoff model is based on kinematic-wave theory. The results of application of this derived model to three Indian basins indicate that the model is a useful alternative for estimating flood flow quantiles at ungauged sites.  相似文献   

Internal testing of a numerical model of hillslope–channel coupling using laboratory flume experiments     

Katerina Michaelides  John Wainwright 《水文研究》2008,22(13):2274-2291

The numerical model COUP 2D simulates the hydrological coupling between hillslopes and the river channel during a rainfall event. In order to test the numerical model, a 1:100 scaled laboratory flume which was modified to incorporate lateral hillslope elements, was used to run a series of experiments in which hillslope angle, channel angle, hillslope discharge and channel discharge were the varying parameters. Overall, there were 18 different experimental configurations with three replicates carried out for each condition, leading to a total of 54 experiments. These conditions were then used to parameterize and run COUP 2D. Internal model outputs of flow depth and flow velocity at four cross‐sections in the channel were compared to the measurements made in the physical model for the same parameter conditions. Statistical comparisons of the measured and modelled data were carried out for each experiment and across all experiments, using two goodness‐of‐fit measures—root mean square error and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency—in order to assess the performance of the model over an entire simulation as well as over all the simulations. The main effects on the goodness‐of‐fit measures for flow depth of each experimental variable, as well as the interactions between variables, were evaluated using statistical modelling. The results show that the model captures flow‐depth variations in response to changing channel and hillslope parameters. Statistical modelling suggests that the main effects on model error are cross‐section position, channel angle and channel discharge. Significant interactions also occur between all the channel variables and between the channel variables and hillslope discharge. The results of the testing procedure have significant implications for the consideration of different model components and for the interaction between data‐ and model evaluation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献