考虑历史洪水资料的期望概率权重矩法参数估计统计试验研究          下载免费PDF全文

王俊珍  宋松柏 《水文》2014,34(1):7-13

为有效利用历史洪水资料,提高洪水资料系列参数的估计精度,研究期望概率权重矩法在广义极值分布参数估计中的应用。采用蒙特卡洛试验研究期望概率权重矩法的统计特性,并与部分概率权重矩法做比较。结果表明:期望概率权重矩法具有良好的稳定统计特性,并且是具有历史洪水资料系列进行参数估计的一种简单、稳定和有效的参数估计方法,具有推广意义。  相似文献   

明渠水流自掺气发展区水气结构分析          下载免费PDF全文

卫望汝  邓军  田忠  张法星 《水科学进展》2014,25(5):704-712

为研究明渠水流自掺气发展区内水气结构特征,采用针式掺气流速仪对自掺气发展区内气泡尺寸与数量进行了试验研究,比较了气泡尺寸与数量随自掺气发展的变化规律,结果显示,同一水流断面上,随着掺气浓度的减小,气泡弦长尺寸分布范围与弦长平均值逐渐减小,掺气区内小尺寸气泡在数量上占有较大的比例,而大尺寸气泡则在含气量上占有较大的比例,分析认为从水面附近高掺气浓度区至自掺气区域底缘低掺气浓度区,明渠自掺气水流水气结构发展过程为“水面变形为主—水面变形与个体空气泡共存—个体空气泡”,为进一步研究明渠自掺气形成机理提供了一定的参考。  相似文献   

历史极端寒冬事件研究——1892/93年中国的寒冬     

张德二  梁有叶 《第四纪研究》2014,34(6)

1892/93年冬季中国东部地区严寒.本文依据历史文献记载复原了该寒冬实况,推演主要的两次强寒潮天气过程,绘制了雪、冰、冻雨和动植物冻害的地域分布图;定量推断各地最低温度值,并与早期器测温度记录相印证,绘制最低温度等值线图.指出1893年1月苏州、温州的推断最低气温分别为-15℃和-13℃,上海、汕头和香港的早期器测记录的最低气温分别为-12.1℃,-0.6℃和0℃,均低于20世纪以来的极端低温记录;河流封冻南界达28°N,北回归线以南地方多次出现严重冻雨,冻雨南界达21°29′N.由此认为1892/93年冬季是中国最近百余年的首位寒冬——这是在北半球许多地区的小冰期寒冷气候已结束、开始转暖,而中国仍然寒冷时的极端寒冷事例.此寒冬前后的气候特点是:1892年秋季冷空气活动频繁、初雪日期提前,1893年中国东部多雨、台风活动较频繁.该寒冬的背景是:位于第13太阳活动周的上升段;发生于极强的厄尔尼诺事件结束2年后的非厄尔尼诺年,对应于赤道中东太平洋海温变冷时段;寒冬之前全球火山活动较频繁,有重大火山喷发.  相似文献   

Heat flow in the rifted continental margin of the South China Sea near Taiwan and its tectonic implications     

《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2014

Temperature measurements carried out on 9 hydrocarbon exploration boreholes together with Bottom Simulating Reflectors (BSRs) from reflection seismic images are used in this study to derive geothermal gradients and heat flows in the northern margin of the South China Sea near Taiwan. The method of Horner plot is applied to obtain true formation temperatures from measured borehole temperatures, which are disturbed by drilling processes. Sub-seafloor depths of BSRs are used to calculate sub-bottom temperatures using theoretical pressure/temperature phase boundary that marks the base of gas hydrate stability zone. Our results show that the geothermal gradients and heat flows in the study area range from 28 to 128 °C/km and 40 to 159 mW/m², respectively. There is a marked difference in geothermal gradients and heat flow beneath the shelf and slope regions. It is cooler beneath the shelf with an average geothermal gradient of 34.5 °C/km, and 62.7 mW/m² heat flow. The continental slope shows a higher average geothermal gradient of 56.4 °C/km, and 70.9 mW/m² heat flow. Lower heat flow on the shelf is most likely caused by thicker sediments that have accumulated there compared to the sediment thickness beneath the slope. In addition, the continental crust is highly extended beneath the continental slope, yielding higher heat flow in this region. A half graben exists beneath the continental slope with a north-dipping graben-bounding fault. A high heat-flow anomaly coincides at the location of this graben-bounding fault at the Jiulong Ridge, indicating vigorous vertical fluid convection which may take place along this fault.  相似文献   

根据钻速方程分析提高钻速的有效途径          下载免费PDF全文

王玉玺  张思慧  李欢欢 《探矿工程》2010,37(3):14-17

在安全条件下,提高钻井速度是钻井工程技术人员追求的目标和紧迫任务。根据大庆长垣通用钻速方程,分析影响钻速的主要因素及提高钻速的有效途径,以供钻井工程设计及现场工程技术人员参考,并用莺深1井、达深2井实钻数据在通用钻速方程中验证,其预测钻速与实际钻速误差仅为4．3％和4．8％,取得较好的符合率。  相似文献   

黄土高原夏季极端降水及其成因分析     

卢珊  胡泽勇  付春伟  樊威伟  吴笛 《高原气象》2022,(1):241-254

利用1961-2016年夏季黄土高原地区64个气象监测站的逐日降水资料及同期NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,分析了近56年黄土高原夏季极端降水的时空变化特征,并对比了极端降水强弱年以及不同年代黄土高原地区夏季大气环流形势的异同.结果表明,黄土高原夏季极端降水占夏季总降水量的54％左右,总体上呈现出东多西少的空间分布特征....  相似文献   

Intercomparison of precipitation simulated by regional climate models over East Asia in 1997 and 1998     

Dong-Kyou LEE  William J. GUTOWSKI  Jr.  Hyun-Suk KANG  Chun-Ji KIM 《大气科学进展》2007,24(4):539-554

Regional climate simulations in Asia from May 1997 to August 1998 were performed using the Seoul National University regional climate model （SNURCM） and Iowa State University regional climate model （ALT.MM5/LSM）, which were developed by coupling the NCAR/Land Surface Model （LSM） and the Mesoscale Model （MM5）. However, for physical processes of precipitation, the SNURCM used the Grell scheme for the convective parameterization scheme （CPS） and the simple ice scheme for the explicit moisture scheme （EMS）, while the ALT.MM5/LSM used the Betts-Miller scheme for CPS and the mixed phase scheme for EMS.
The simulated precipitation patterns and amounts over East Asia for the extreme climatic summer in 1997 （relative drought conditions） and 1998 （relative flood conditions） were especially focused upon. The ALT.MM5/LSM simulated more precipitation than was observed in 1997 due to more moisture and cloud water in the lower levels, despite weak upward motion. In the SNURCM, strong upward motion resulted in more precipitation than that was observed in 1998, with more moisture and cloud water in the middle levels. In the ALT.MM5/LSM, weak upward motion, unchanged moisture in the lower troposphere, and the decrease in latent heat flux at the surface increased convective precipitation only by 3% for the 1998 summer event. In the SNURCM, strong upward motion, the increase in moisture in the lower troposphere, and the increase in latent heat flux at the surface increased convective precipitation by 48% for the summer of 1998. The main differences between both simulations were moisture availability and horizontal momentum transport in the lower troposphere, which were also strongly influenced by large-scale forcing.  相似文献   

奥运期间天津极端天气气候事件背景分析   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1  

杨艳娟  周慧 《气象科技》2007,35(6):890-893

利用1951～2006年天津7月下旬至9月上旬的日最高气温、降水量、最大风速和8月扬沙、雾、雷暴和冰雹的观测资料,统计了对足球比赛影响较大的高温、暴雨、大风、雾和雷暴等极端天气气候事件发生的概率及分布特点,以期为2008年北京奥运会天津分赛场的足球小组赛提供气候背景服务信息。结果表明:在奥运会期间,天津易出现高温、暴雨、雷暴和雾等不利天气;而大风、扬沙、冰雹的概率相对较小。相对而言,8月中旬至9月上旬,这些不利的极端天气气候事件发生的概率小,对各项赛事的开展较为有利。  相似文献   

Thermal imaging of sedimentary features on alluvial fans     

Craig Hardgrove  Jeffrey Moersch 《Planetary and Space Science》2010,58(4):482-508

Aerial thermal imaging is used to study grain-size distributions and induration on a wide variety of alluvial fans in the desert southwest of the United States. High-resolution aerial thermal images reveal evidence of sedimentary processes that rework and build alluvial fans, as preserved in the grain-size distributions and surface induration those processes leave behind. A catalog of constituent sedimentary features that can be identified using aerial thermal and visible imaging is provided. These features include clast-rich and clast-poor debris flows, incised channel deposits, headward-eroding gullies, sheetflood, lag surfaces, active/inactive lobes, distal sand-skirts and basin-related salt pans. Ground-based field observations of surface grain-size distributions, as well as morphologic, cross-cutting and topographic relationships were used to confirm the identifications of these feature types in remotely acquired thermal and visible images. Thermal images can also reveal trends in grain sizes between neighboring alluvial fans on a regional scale. Although inferences can be made using thermal images alone, the results from this study demonstrate that a more thorough geological interpretation of sedimentary features on an alluvial fan can be made using a combination of thermal and visible images. The results of this study have potential applications for Mars, where orbital thermal imaging might be used as a tool for evaluating constituent sedimentary processes on proposed alluvial fans.  相似文献   

1949—2019 年影响山东的热带气旋时空分布及极端降水和大气环流异常          下载免费PDF全文

欧阳婧怡  黄菲  许士斌  曹倩 《海洋气象学报》2021,41(4):1-10

使用中国气象局热带气旋资料中心的热带气旋最佳路径数据集和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料提供的月平均数据,对北上影响山东的热带气旋（tropical cyclone,TC）及其造成的极端降水进行统计分析,并揭示了有利于 TC北移影响山东的大气环流特征。结果表明：影响山东的 TC主要出现 于 6—9 月,其中盛夏时节（7、8 月）TC对山东影响最大;TC影响山东时,强度主要为台风及以下等 级,或已发生变性;TC会引发山东极端降水事件,TC极端降水多出现在夏秋季（7—9 月）,其中8月的占比最大,9月次之,TC降水在极端降水事件中的占比约为 10%,但年际变化大,有些年份占比达60%以上,特别是1990 年以来 TC对极端降水的贡献显著增强;影响山东的 TC主要生成于西 北太平洋,多为转向型路径;当500 hPa位势高度异常场呈太平洋一日本遥相关型的正位相时,TC更易北上影响山东,此时西北太平洋副热带高压位置偏北,其外围气流会引导TC北上转向,对华东地区造成影响;850 hPa上,南海至西北太平洋存在异常气旋式环流,对流活跃,夏季风环流和季风槽加强,有利于TC的生成和发展,同时,华东、华南上空有异常上升运动,涡度增大,垂直风切变减小,水汽充沛,TC登陆后强度能得到较好的维持。  相似文献