Hypotheses for earthquake occurrences     

Naveen  P. S. Moharir  V. K. Gaur 《Journal of Earth System Science》1983,92(3):261-281

Very little work has been done in generating alternatives to the Poisson process model. The work reported here deals with alternatives to the Poisson process model for the earthquakes and checks them using empirical data and the statistical hypothesis testing apparatus. The strategy used here for generating hypotheses is to compound the Poisson process. The parameter of the Poisson process is replaced by a random variable having prescribed density function. The density functions used are gamma, chi and extended (gamma/chi). The original distribution is then averaged out with respect to these density functions. For the compound Poisson processes the waiting time distributions for the future events are derived. As the parameters for the various statistical models for earthquake occurrences are not known, the problem is basically of composite hypothesis testing. One way of designing a test is to estimate these parameters and use them as true values. Momentmatching is used here to estimate the parameters. The results of hypothesis testing using data from Hindukush and North East India are presented.  相似文献   

地壳均衡假说与湘西北地壳均衡失调探讨   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

谢湘雄  顾剑虹 《物探与化探》2002,26(3):171-174

由湖南省1:100万10′×15′平均均衡重力异常图知,湘西北地区呈重力高;除此以外的广大地区,当消除花岗岩对应的局部重力低外,均衡异常基本呈零值特征。笔者认为这是湖南全省的地壳均衡失调区,并从5个方面对该问题进行了分析。  相似文献   

秦岭造山带基础地质研究新进展   总被引：18，自引：11，他引：18       下载免费PDF全文

杨志华郭俊锋  苏生瑞李　勇苏春乾  张传林黑爱芝　梁　云 《中国地质》2002,29(3):246-256

“八五”－“九五”期间秦岭的多项研究中，主要取得以下新认识：①创立了抽拉－逆冲岩片构造新理论，丰富和发展了岩石圈板块或壳块运动方式的多样性；②发现了东西向的秦岭造山带从显生宙以来有南北向的隆升带和沉积盆地，特别是太白、宝鸡－佛坪－汉南隆升带的发现，将从根本上改变秦岭乃至中国中东部构造格架的认识；③南北向沉积盆地转变为东西向造山带的Ⅱ型造山带，深部构造岩片抽拉－逆冲推覆在中（新）生代陆相沉积盆地之上所形成的Ⅲ型造山带，为地壳表层增添了两种新型的造山带；④提出秦岭造山带中存在3类沉积盆地，3种盆－山转换，3个发展阶段及3种型式（Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ）的造山带；⑤重新厘定商丹带、勉略带和二郎坪带的构造属性、形成时代，首次提出秦岭受3种体制，4个发展阶段的新观点，由抽拉构造形成的陆内造山带是秦岭最重要的划时代发展阶段；⑥提出立交桥式结构观点；⑦发现了一批前震旦系变质地层结晶岩系，重新厘定了一些地层的时代，特别是西秦岭、西成铅锌矿田中元古代地层的发现和超大型厂坝矿床产于其中，有重大的理论和实际意义；⑧提出准浊流态流体的新概念；⑨提出中国和秦岭大地构造发展演化的新全球动力学理论。  相似文献   

形变反演模型的非线性平差   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陶本藻 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2001,26(6):504-508

阐述了反演问题参数估计的质量要求，将反演理论中的分辨率和精度与平差中的良好统计性质作了对比分析，为使反演参数得到良好估计，提出平差处理对策。针对反演问题经常是非线性模型，提出了非线性平差的几种方法，最后给出参数筛选的原则和相应的统计检验方法。  相似文献   

Image resolution and evaluation of genetic hypotheses for planetary landscapes     

James R. Zimbelman 《Geomorphology》2001,37(3-4)

The spatial resolution of image data tends to constrain the horizontal length scale of genetic hypotheses that are addressable by those data. No ‘simple’ formula exists when image resolution is sufficient to test a given geomorphic process, which is dependent on what characteristics are diagnostic of the particular process. Genetic hypotheses should be formulated along the lines of the “multiple working hypotheses” concept as described in a classic paper by Chamberlin [J. Geol. 5 (1897) 837]. An essential element of a viable working hypothesis is a clear indication of the characteristics predicted by, or a consequence of, the hypothesis. An untestable hypothesis is not an effective working hypothesis. The history of the study of lunar sinuous rilles is outlined as an illustration of the influence of image resolution and the formulation of genetic hypotheses on the subsequent advancement of understanding of the problem. Sinuous rilles on Venus and Mars, and controversial sinuous ridges on Mars are also reviewed. In the lunar case, the three-order-of-magnitude improvement in spatial resolution provided by Lunar Orbiter photographs over Earth-based telescopic photographs did not result in definitive examination and elimination of published hypotheses for the formation of sinuous rilles. Topographic data obtained from cartographically controlled Apollo orbital photographs, along with important observations and samples obtained by the astronauts on the lunar surface, did test and exclude several hypotheses. The formulation of a genetic hypothesis, including testable consequences of that hypothesis, is a greater determinant of its ultimate utility to the scientific community than is the image resolution available at any given time.  相似文献   

Earth’s density flattening and hypothesis of latitudinal normal density     

Hao Xiaoguang  Xu Houze  LIU Dajie 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2001,44(8):673-679

In this paper, the definition of latitudinal density and density flattening of the level ellipsoid is given, and integral formulas of latitudinal density for pole gravity and equator gravity are derived. According to the pole gravity condition and equator gravity condition for the level ellipsoid, latitudinal density distribution function of the level ellipsoid is obtained. It is proved mathematically that latitudinal density of the earth’s equator is larger than that of the pole, the earth’s density flattening calculated preliminarily is 1/322, and hypothesis of the earth’s latitudinal normal density is further proposed, so that theoretical preparation for studying the forming cause of the earth gravity in problems such as continent drift, mantle convection, and submarine extension is made well.  相似文献   

土壤空间变异研究中的定量分析   总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17  

秦耀东 《地球科学进展》1992,7(1):44-49

 系统地介绍了用地质统计学方法定童地研究土攘空间变异性的基本原理和方法以及这一领域目前研究的几个重点问题，并简单介绍了我国在这方面的研究现状。  相似文献   

初论地洼学说的进展与前景     

孙希贤  龙昱 《大地构造与成矿学》1992,16(4):405-409

笔者在研究有关文献和参加一些学术会议后发现.地洼学说近十余年来进展显著,科研成果累累.被称为当代最有生命力的学科之一,但系统地研究其成长过程尚欠缺.为了促进地球科学的不断发展。总结经验与教训。扩大学科间的交流.本文重点论述了地洼学说产生的历史背景:进展阶段与特点;发展总体趋势;学说的前景和展望等问题.  相似文献   

地震立体网络多因复成学说与DZW333预测模式及其应用     

韩东银  魏英祖 《国际地震动态》2006,(11):15-28

综合目前各地震成因假说而提出了地震立体网络多因复成学说,该学说包括两个基本点:地震时空分布具有立体网络性;地震是显、隐性立体网络力能结构上的一个纽结。显性网络力能主要是以应力形式作用的力能,主要来源于地球自身的运转、地壳整体收缩和地幔活动因素,表现为局部性挤压和拉伸,结果往往形成断裂、断裂带、系或其他地球物理薄弱地带。隐性网络力能主要是以连续性(区域)场和瞬间冲击、扰动形式作用的力能,主要来源于太阳、月亮及太阳系各行星因素以及宇宙膨胀复原力能、宇宙高能粒子流或慧星与地球相遇引发的流星雨,表现为区域性引拉和斥推,以及瞬间冲击力、干扰力。隐性网络力对蕴震体物质和能量进行“加载”或“卸载”,结果是广泛沟通蕴震体内部及与外部的联系、调节控制蕴震体振动方式和运动方式及其能量积累和释放、促进或诱发蕴震体发震。显、隐性网络力能叠加于蕴震体,当蕴震体自由振动被叠加振动剧烈加强即蕴震体发生共振时,引起蕴震体加速运动而处于临界态,出现降维、减熵的有序特征,在临界态蕴震体受瞬间冲击或扰动,或者与环境出现解耦,而出现突变、混沌、发生地震。基于地震立体网络多因复成学说认识提出了DZW333预测模式,预测模式包括地震成因物理模型、典型地震发生机制和地震三级预测程序3部分主要内容。DZW即地震网络学说,333即由3类显性物质单元组成,即发震地壳体、球内地幔活动体、球外天体;由3部分力能因素组成,即地壳体自动力能、地幔热压体浮沉力能、星际引斥扰动力能;有3级预测程序,即时空网络预测、形态特征预测、精确信息预测。前两级预测也属于以研究对象中的共性为基础的统计预测,应确定概率值。后一级的信息预测则是以研究对象中的特性为基础的确定性预测,不涉及概率。以唐山大地震为例作了解析。  相似文献   

从大洋中脊反思大陆漂移说——兼论地球膨裂说     

白卉  闫玉英  沈文杰 《吉林地质》2007,26(2):71-74

本文通过讨论地幔对流的可能性以及大洋中脊的运动方式,证明了大陆漂移说对大陆漂移的源动力的解释仍存在漏洞,并提出大陆漂移源动力与地球膨裂的关系。对大陆漂移说具有补充性。  相似文献