国家气象中心气象要素的客观预报——MOS系统   总被引：24，自引：16，他引：24       下载免费PDF全文

刘还珠赵声蓉  陆志善赵翠光杨元琴  李玉华 《应用气象学报》2004,15(2):181-191

面向全国2000多个台站，应用数值预报产品释用MOS技术制作温度、降水、相对湿度、风、云量及能见度等要素预报，并实现了预报业务运行。通过建立MOS预报系统，表明预报因子和预报对象的处理，建方程前的参数选择以及预报因子的选取都会影响要素预报的质量，需要做大量的细致工作。预报检验结果显示，降水预报尚未达到可用程度，温度和相对湿度的短期预报在大多数情况下是可用的或是可参考的，但还有待进一步改进。降水预报尚需在预报因子和充分运用多种探测信息方面着手加以改进。  相似文献   

夏季降水量与气温资料的恢复试验   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

黄嘉佑刘小宁  李庆祥 《应用气象学报》2004,15(2):200-206

该文对我国汛期降水量和气温缺测资料及资料均一性恢复的方法进行试验研究。对单个气候地区（东北区），以及全国6个气候地区用逐步回归和逐步判别方法进行缺测1～5年恢复试验。对东北地区内所有站点的试验表明，逐步判别分析方法比逐步回归分析方法恢复效果好些；选择邻站用判别分析方法建立的恢复模型，效果更好。全国气候地区试验表明，选择邻站的判别分析方法有较好的恢复效果。  相似文献   

近红外反射光谱学在岩石矿物研究中的应用Ⅱ.快速测定地质样品中有机质     

龙梅  裴世桥 《岩矿测试》2004,23(1):6-10

利用偏最小二乘法回归的多变量校正方式,建立了应用近红外反射光谱学方法无损快速测定各种地质样品中有机质的模型.设计了多重散射光校正、标准正常变量转换及导数光谱,扣除额外基线和重叠信号的影响,分离出与有机质含量有关的光谱信息.大多数地质样品的有机质近红外反射光谱估算结果与化学法符合.  相似文献   

泰斯模型的统计分析求解   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

李超群  朱国荣  江思珉 《水文地质工程地质》2004,31(2):75-78

本文利用统计分析来求解水文地质参数,原理简单,解是唯一的。其基本思想是利用非稳定流抽水试验获得的s-t系列资料,以泰斯公式为参考模型,建立试验系列的非线性统计模型,求解导水系数T和贮水系数μ 。统计模型既可利用目前先进的软件辅助求解,亦可利用一台可编程计算器完成计算。本文借助一个实例,应用MATLAB语言的统计分析工具的多元回归分析模块进行求解,获得了理想的结果。  相似文献   

松花湖富营养化现状及其影响因素分析   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8  

王霞  吕宪国  张学林  张竹青 《湿地科学》2004,2(4):273-278

通过2002年和2003年对东北地区松花湖水体富营养化状况进行调查和采样分析，对大量数据的多元相关分析和多元逐步回归分析、AGP试验和利用综合营养状态指数法进行评价。结果表明：松花湖处在中营养和轻度富营养状态；总磷是限制水体富营养化的主要因子之一。水体中变温层的形成，限制了上、下层湖水的混合，对下层水体中的溶解氧、无机氮和可溶性磷酸盐产生影响，随着变温层的消失，下层内的营养物质转移到湖上层，为藻类的繁殖提供条件。  相似文献   

Variation of earthquake ground motionwith depth     

胡进军  谢礼立 《地震学报(英文版)》2005,18(1):72-81

Introduction The 21st century is the time for the exploitation and utilization of underground spaces. It is astrategic way to defeat the severe challenge that human are now confronting with, such as the lackof land, contamination of environment, traffic jam, waste of sources, and so on. The exploitationand utilization of underground space has become a global tendency, and a significant sign inevaluating the speed of modernization of cities. Facing the challenge, it is significantly necess…  相似文献   

Study on comparison between absolute and relative input energy spectra and effects of ductility factor     

公茂盛  谢礼立 《地震学报(英文版)》2005,18(6):717-726

Introduction Estimation of an attenuation relationship for strong ground motion parameters has been an interesting research subject in the field of engineering seismology and has played a very important role in seismic safety evaluation, seismic zoning, seismic hazard evaluation of major constructions, etc. At present, the generally used parameters include peak acceleration, peak velocity and elastic response spectrum. Such parameters mentioned above are essentially independent of the duration…  相似文献   

Channel geometry of mountain streams in New Zealand     

Ellen E. Wohl  Andrew Wilcox 《Journal of Hydrology》2005,300(1-4):252-266

A dataset of 21 study reaches in the Porter and Kowai rivers (eastern side of the South Island), and 13 study reaches in Camp Creek and adjacent catchments (western side of the South Island) was used to examine downstream hydraulic geometry of mountain streams in New Zealand. Streams in the eastern and western regions both exhibit well-developed downstream hydraulic geometry, as indicated by strong correlations between channel top width, bankfull depth, mean velocity, and bankfull discharge. Exponents for the hydraulic geometry relations are similar to average values for rivers worldwide. Factors such as colluvial sediment input to the channels, colluvial processes along the channels, tectonic uplift, and discontinuous bedrock exposure along the channels might be expected to complicate adjustment of channel geometry to downstream increases in discharge. The presence of well-developed downstream hydraulic geometry relations despite these complicating factors is interpreted to indicate that the ratio of hydraulic driving forces to substrate resisting forces is sufficiently large to permit channel adjustment to relatively frequent discharges.  相似文献   

利用可见光/近红外反射光谱估算土壤总氮含量的实验研究   总被引：25，自引：0，他引：25  

徐永明  蔺启忠  黄秀华  沈艳  王璐 《地理与地理信息科学》2005,21(1):19-22

利用土壤的室内反射率光谱，探讨土壤氮元素的高光谱机理。利用土壤光谱各吸收带的特征参数与总氮含量进行逐步回归运算，确定与氮元素关系比较密切的几个吸收带。计算出这几个特征吸收带内土壤反射率的变化形式：一阶导数(FDR)、倒数(1/R)、倒数之对数(log(1/R))、波段深度(Depth)，并与总氮含量进行逐步回归分析，得到比较理想的结果：建模样本的Ra^2(修正的判定系数)分别为0．789、0．753、0．736、0．699，验证样本的Ra^2分别为0．759、0．468、0．794、0．725。可见土壤的反射率光谱与氮元素含量之间存在比较明显的相关性，可见光／近红外反射光谱具有快速估算土壤中氮元素含量的潜力。  相似文献   

Ensemble prediction of regional droughts using climate inputs and the SVM–copula approach          下载免费PDF全文

Poulomi Ganguli  M. Janga Reddy 《水文研究》2014,28(19):4989-5009

In this study, the climate teleconnections with meteorological droughts are analysed and used to develop ensemble drought prediction models using a support vector machine (SVM)–copula approach over Western Rajasthan (India). The meteorological droughts are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In the analysis of large‐scale climate forcing represented by climate indices such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on regional droughts, it is found that regional droughts exhibits interannual as well as interdecadal variability. On the basis of potential teleconnections between regional droughts and climate indices, SPI‐based drought forecasting models are developed with up to 3 months' lead time. As traditional statistical forecast models are unable to capture nonlinearity and nonstationarity associated with drought forecasts, a machine learning technique, namely, support vector regression (SVR), is adopted to forecast the drought index, and the copula method is used to model the joint distribution of observed and predicted drought index. The copula‐based conditional distribution of an observed drought index conditioned on predicted drought index is utilized to simulate ensembles of drought forecasts. Two variants of drought forecast models are developed, namely a single model for all the periods in a year and separate models for each of the four seasons in a year. The performance of developed models is validated for predicting drought time series for 10 years' data. Improvement in ensemble prediction of drought indices is observed for combined seasonal model over the single model without seasonal partitions. The results show that the proposed SVM–copula approach improves the drought prediction capability and provides estimation of uncertainty associated with drought predictions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献