Robustness of Precipitation Projections in China:Comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3 Models          下载免费PDF全文

CHEN Huo-Po  SUN Jian-Qi 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(1)

Three sources of uncertainty in model projections of precipitation change in China for the 21st century were separated and quantified: internal variability,inter-model variability,and scenario uncertainty.Simulations from models involved in the third phase and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3 and CMIP5) were compared to identify improvements in the robustness of projections from the latest generation of models.No significant differences were found between CMIP3 and CMIP5 in terms of future precipitation projections over China,with the two datasets both showing future increases.The uncertainty can be attributed firstly to internal variability,and then to both inter-model and internal variability.Quantification analysis revealed that the uncertainty in CMIP5 models has increased by about 10%–60% with respect to CMIP3,despite significant improvements in the latest generation of models.The increase is mainly due to the increase of internal variability in the initial decades,and then mainly due to the increase of inter-model variability thereafter,especially by the end of this century.The change in scenario uncertainty shows no major role,but makes a negative contribution to begin with,and then an increase later.  相似文献   

Investigation of Uncertainties of Establishment Schemes in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models简     

SONG Xiang  ZENG Xiaodong 《大气科学进展》2014,31(1):85-94

In Dynamic Global Vegetation Models （DGVMs）, the establishment of woody vegetation refers to flowering, fertiliza- tion, seed production, germination, and the growth of tree seedlings. It determines not only the population densities but also other important ecosystem structural variables. In current DGVMs, establishments of woody plant functional types （PFTs） are assumed to be either the same in the same grid cell, or largely stochastic. We investigated the uncertainties in the competition of establishment among coexisting woody PFTs from three aspects： the dependence of PFT establishments on vegetation states; background establishment; and relative establishment potentials of different PFTs. Sensitivity experi- ments showed that the dependence of establishment rate on the fractional coverage of a PFT favored the dominant PFT by increasing its share in establishment. While a small background establishment rate had little impact on equilibrium states of the ecosystem, it did change the timescale required for the establishment of alien species in pre-existing forest due to their disadvantage in seed competition during the early stage of invasion. Meanwhile, establishment purely fiom background （the scheme commonly used in current DGVMs） led to inconsistent behavior in response to the change in PFT specification （e.g., number of PFTs and their specification）. Furthermore, the results also indicated that trade-off between irtdividual growth and reproduction/colonization has significant influences on the competition of establishment. Hence, further development of es- tablishment parameterization in DGVMs is essential in reducing the uncertainties in simulations of both ecosystem structures and successions.  相似文献   

Risk mitigation and the social cost of carbon     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

The social cost of carbon – i.e., the marginal present-value cost imposed by greenhouse gas emissions – is determined by a complex interaction between factual assumptions, modeling methods, and value judgments. Among the most crucial factors is society's willingness to tolerate potentially catastrophic environmental risks. To explore this issue, the present analysis employs a stochastic climate–economy model that accounts for uncertainties in baseline economic growth, baseline emissions, greenhouse gas mitigation costs, carbon cycling, climate sensitivity, and climate change damages. In this model, preferences are specified to reflect the high degree of risk aversion revealed by private investment decisions, signaled by the large observed gap between the average rates of return paid by safe and risky financial instruments. In contrast, most climate–economy models assume much lower risk aversion. Given high risk aversion, the analysis finds that investment in climate stabilization yields especially large net benefits by forestalling low-probability threats to long-run human well-being. Accordingly, the social cost of carbon attains the markedly high value of $25,700 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in a baseline scenario in which emissions are unregulated. This value falls to just $4 per ton as the stringency of control measures is successively increased. These results cast doubt on the idea that the social cost of carbon takes on a uniquely defined, objective value that is independent of policy decisions. This does not, however, rule out the use of carbon prices to achieve the benefits of climate stabilization using least-cost mitigation measures.  相似文献   

Determination of trace and rare-earth elements in Chinese soil and clay reference materials by ICP-MS   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Ye Liu  Chunrong Diwu  Yan Zhao  Xiaoming Liu  Honglin Yuan  Jianqi Wang 《中国地球化学学报》2014,33(1):95-102

Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry(ICP-MS) has become a powerful tool for providing reliable analytical results in many laboratories around the word. In this study, the mixture of HF and HNO3 acids in high-temperature and high-pressure closed-vessel digestion technique were used to decompose some Chinese reference materials, and thirty seven elements were determined by ICP-MS. Most of the results for Chinese soil reference materials were found to be in reasonable agreement with the reference values, except Cs, Ta, Li, Ge, Zn, Nd, Tb and Ta whose values need to be revised. Their precisions were typically lower than 5% RSD. However, the Precisions of Chinese clay reference materials, especially for GBW03102 and GBW03102a, were significantly different with reference values, probably reflecting the existence of a coarser-grained fraction(70 μm) in samples, and the formation of fluorides in Al-rich samples during sample decomposition by using the mixture of HF and HNO3 acids. Moreover, thirty-seven trace elements covering the mass range from Li to U in four Chinese clay reference materials were firstly provided with good precision and accuracy in this study.  相似文献   

基于遥感影像的黄河内蒙古段冰-水分类研究          下载免费PDF全文

翟涌光  张鑫  冀鸿兰  牟献友  张宝森 《干旱区地理》2022,45(3):763-773

及时获取凌汛期河冰和水体的空间分布特征,对于预测冰凌灾害、提高防凌信息化管理水平有重要意义。遥感技术是当前获取河冰和水体空间分布的最主要手段之一。但是,黄河水体有大量悬浮泥沙,这给基于遥感技术的高精度冰-水分类带来了挑战。以黄河内蒙古段为例,基于Landsat 8 OLI遥感影像数据,在利用归一化积雪指数（NDSI）及河道矢量数据排除无关地物的基础上,对比了近红外波段反射率值、归一化差异水体指数（NDWI）、归一化积雪指数（NDSI）、改进的归一化积雪指数（MNDSI）以及归一化差异未封冻水体指数（NDUWI）在黄河内蒙古段典型河道河冰、水体分类中的表现,计算各指标总体分类精度及Kappa系数并进行阈值稳定性分析。结果表明：在利用NDSI和高清历史影像排除河道外无关地物后,NDUWI在各子段影像中的总体分类精度和Kappa系数均达到90.00%及0.90以上,其河冰、水体最优区分阈值大体分布于阈值中值附近。研究结果可为凌汛期黄河冰凌监测方法的选取以及冰上爆破位置的拟定提供依据。  相似文献   

Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions     

Hilary McMillan  Jim Freer  Florian Pappenberger  Tobias Krueger  Martyn Clark 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1270-1284

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Stage‐discharge uncertainty derived with a non‐stationary rating curve in the Choluteca River,Honduras     

I. Westerberg  J.‐L. Guerrero  J. Seibert  K. J. Beven  S. Halldin 《水文研究》2011,25(4):603-613

Uncertainty in discharge data must be critically assessed before data can be used in, e.g. water resources estimation or hydrological modelling. In the alluvial Choluteca River in Honduras, the river‐bed characteristics change over time as fill, scour and other processes occur in the channel, leading to a non‐stationary stage‐discharge relationship and difficulties in deriving consistent rating curves. Few studies have investigated the uncertainties related to non‐stationarity in the stage‐discharge relationship. We calculated discharge and the associated uncertainty with a weighted fuzzy regression of rating curves applied within a moving time window, based on estimated uncertainties in the observed rating data. An 18‐year‐long dataset with unusually frequent ratings (1268 in total) was the basis of this study. A large temporal variability in the stage‐discharge relationship was found especially for low flows. The time‐variable rating curve resulted in discharge estimate differences of ? 60 to + 90% for low flows and ± 20% for medium to high flows when compared to a constant rating curve. The final estimated uncertainty in discharge was substantial and the uncertainty limits varied between ? 43 to + 73% of the best discharge estimate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Flow,frequency, and uncertainty estimation for an extreme historical flood event in the Highlands of Scotland,UK     

David Cameron 《水文研究》2007,21(11):1460-1470

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Recharge estimation using remotely sensed evapotranspiration in an irrigated catchment in southeast Australia     

F. Githui  B. Selle  T. Thayalakumaran 《水文研究》2012,26(9):1379-1389

Reliable estimates of groundwater recharge are required for the sustainable management of surface and ground water resources in semi‐arid regions particularly in irrigated regions. In this study, groundwater recharge was estimated for an irrigated catchment in southeast Australia using a semi‐distributed hydrological model (SWAT). The model was calibrated under the dry climatic conditions for the period from August 2002 to July 2003 using flow and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET). The model was able to simulate observed monthly drain flow and spatially distributed remotely sensed ET. Recharge tended to be higher for irrigated land covers, such as perennial pasture, than for non‐irrigated land. On average, the estimated annual catchment recharge ranged between 147 and 289 mm which represented about 40% of the total rainfall and irrigation inputs. The optimized soil parameters indirectly reflected flow bypassing the soil matrix that could be responsible for this substantial amount of recharge. Overall, the estimated recharge was much more than that previously estimated for the wetter years. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Input data resolution‐induced uncertainty in watershed modelling     

Abhijit Patil  Zhi‐Qiang Deng  Ronald F. Malone 《水文研究》2011,25(14):2302-2312

The temporal‐spatial resolution of input data‐induced uncertainty in a watershed‐based water quality model, Hydrologic Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF), is investigated in this study. The temporal resolution‐induced uncertainty is described using the coefficient of variation (CV). The CV is found to decrease with decreasing temporal resolution and follow a log‐normal relation with time interval for temperature data while it exhibits a power‐law relation for rainfall data. The temporal‐scale uncertainties in the temperature and rainfall data follow a general extreme value distribution and a Weibull distribution, respectively. The Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) is employed to represent the spatial resolution induced uncertainty. The spatial resolution uncertainty in the dissolved oxygen and nitrate‐nitrogen concentrations simulated using HSPF is observed to follow a general extreme value distribution and a log‐normal distribution, respectively. The probability density functions (PDF) provide new insights into the effect of temporal‐scale and spatial resolution of input data on uncertainties involved in watershed modelling and total maximum daily load calculations. This study exhibits non‐symmetric distributions of uncertainty in water quality modelling, which simplify weather and water quality monitoring and reducing the cost involved in flow and water quality monitoring. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献