山东夏季降水量场预测模型研究及预测试验   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

胡桂芳  奚秀芬 《气象》2002,28(12):15-20

从预测山东夏季降水场的需要出发，用山东1961－2001年夏季降水资料，研究了山东夏季降水的基本分布型式及其与北半球500hPa月平均高度、大气环流特征量及北太平洋海温之间关系。结果表明：不同的分布型存在不同的前期预测强信号。以这些强信号为主要预报因子结合考虑降水趋势振荡，构建出山东夏季降水场预测模型，并进行了预测试验。  相似文献   

沙尘暴天气的归类判别分析预报模式     

高涛  刘景涛  康铃 《干旱气象》2001,19(2):14-20

在大量分析了历史上 4 0年发生在内蒙古中西部地区的 37场沙尘暴天气过程的基础上 ,总结归纳了其大气环流特征 ,将他们划分成 4个环流类型。参考SaatyT .L .,提出的综合选优的方法[1] ,建立判别矩阵 ,然后计算归类判别预报 ,根据判别函数值判断实时待判样本的归属。参照归属类历史沙尘暴的天气形势和实况出现的范围以及强度作出沙尘暴天气预报 ,并设计了一个沙尘暴天气的归类判别分析预报模式。该模式已较成功地应用于 2 0 0 0年春季内蒙古地区的沙尘暴天气预报业务中 ,取得了较好的预报效果。实践证明 ,它是一个客观化、定量化和计算自动化的实用的预报模式 ,是我们目前作沙尘暴预报的重要技术手段之一。  相似文献   

大同遥测地震台网小震群活动与大同-阳高中强地震预报讨论          下载免费PDF全文

李祝  薛振岳  赵淑珍  金文臣  秦保燕 《地震工程学报》1996,18(4):17-22

根据大同遥测地震台网记录到的小震群资料，用组合模式理论［１］对本区的小震群时空演化规律进行了分析研究。结果表明，对于１９８９年１０月１８日在本区发生的大同—阳高５．８级地震，利用震前小震群资料得出的预报震中与实际震中有较好的一致性。另外，通过震群与外因相关性的分析，对发震时间的预报也取得了较好的效果  相似文献   

山东碳酸岩磷灰石的特征及其研究意义   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

储同庆 《矿物岩石》1992,12(3):5-12

鲁中隆起的北缘分布着100多个燕山期的碳酸岩体。本文详细研究了岩体中磷灰石的一些重要特征,包括晶体形态、物理性质、光学常数、晶胞参数、化学成分、包裹体及钕锶同位素组成等。并据所得资料对岩体的成因,成岩物质来源等问题进行探讨。  相似文献   

重磁异常的人机联作校正－迭代反演     

杨高印  管志宁 《现代地质》1995,(3)

本文提出了三度体重磁异常的人机联作校正－迭代反演方法。该方法用二度半组合多边形棱柱体来逼近三度体，从而把三度体重磁异常反演问题转化为二度半体的反演问题；为了消除组合体迭加场的影响，该方法采用了一种校正－迭代技术。理论模型反演计算表明，该方法实际可行。  相似文献   

Multifractal modeling and spatial point processes   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Quiming Cheng  Frederik P. Agterberg 《Mathematical Geology》1995,27(7):831-845

The multifractal model can be applied to spatial point processes. It provides new, approximately power-law type, expressions for their second-order intensity and K (r) functions. The box-counting and cluster dimensions are different but mutually interrelated according to multifractal theory. This approach is used to describe the underlying spatial structure of gold mineral occurrences in the Iskut River area, northwestern British Columbia. The box-counting and cluster dimensions for the example are estimated to be 1.335±0.077 and 1.219±0.037, respectively. The relatively strong clustering of the gold deposits is reflected by the fact that both values are considerably less than the corresponding Euclidean dimension (=2).  相似文献   

从观鱼看庄子哲学的主旨     

康中乾 《广东海洋大学学报》2003,23(2):44-48

《庄子·秋水》篇中有一则庄、惠“濠梁观鱼”的故事 ,比较典型地表现了庄子的认识论思想 ,从审美的方法入手 ,在境界的意义上来看待 ,庄子哲学实质上是一种审美化的哲学 ,注重的是宇宙与人合二而一的本体论 ,即审美之“境”。  相似文献   

Equilibrium Evaporation and the Convective Boundary Layer   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

M. R. Raupach 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2000,96(1-2):107-142

A theory is developed for surface energy exchanges in well-mixed, partlyopen systems, embracing fully open and fully closed systems as limits.Conservation equations for entropy and water vapour are converted intoan exact rate equation for the potential saturation deficit D in a well-mixed, partly open region. The main contributions to changes in D arise from (1) the flux of D at the surface, dependent on a conductance g_q that is a weighted sum of the bulk aerodynamic and surface conductances; and (2) the exchange flux of D with the external environment by entrainment or advection, dependent on a conductance g_e that is identifiable with the entrainment velocity when the partly open region is a growing convective boundary layer (CBL). The system is fully open when g_e/g_q , and fully closed when g_e/g_q 0. The equations determine the steady state surface energy balance (SEB) in a partly open system, the associated steady-state deficit, and the settling time scale needed to reach the steady state. The general result for the steady-state SEB corresponds to the equations of conventional combination theory for the SEB of a vegetated surface, with the surface-layer deficit replaced by the external deficit and with g_q replaced by the series sum (g_q ^-1 + g_e ^-1)^-1. In the fully open limit D is entirely externally prescribed, while in the fully closed limit, D is internally determined and the SEB approaches thermodynamic equilibrium energy partition. In the case of the CBL, the conductances g_q and g_e are themselves functions of D through short-term feedbacks, induced by entrainment in the case of g_e and by both physiological and aerodynamic (thermal stability) processes in the case of g_q. The effects of these feedbacks are evaluated. It is found that a steady-state CBL is physically achievable only over surfaces with at least moderate moisture availability; that entrainment has a significant accelerating effect on equilibration; that the settling time scale is well approximated by h/(g_q + g_e), where h is the CBL depth; and that this scale is short enough to allow a steady state to evolve within a semi-diurnal time scale only when h is around 500 m or less.  相似文献   

Influence of wave groups on SSC patterns over vortex ripples     

Paul V. Villard  Philip D. Osborne  Christopher E. Vincent 《Continental Shelf Research》2000,20(17):1

Estimates of spatial and temporal variations in suspended sand concentrations (SSC) made with a multi-transducer Acoustic Backscatter Sensor (ABS) under a repeated wave group over a mobile rippled bed in the wave research flume at the National Hydraulics Laboratory in Ottawa, Canada, reveal an number of complex and intriguing patterns. Ensemble averages of 8 nearly identical wave groups provided much more robust estimates of SSC and allowed a detailed examination of the wave group effects. The largest SSC near the bed (< 0.10 m) occurs in phase with the largest waves in the group. Above approximately 0.10 m elevation, SSC lags behind the near bed SSC by as much as 2–3 waves; introducing significant curvature (on a semi-log plot) to the SSC profile. The log linear segments of the SSC profile grow and decay systematically on the scale of the wave group. The range in lengths of log-linear profile segments ( 0.03–0.355 m) suggest that the boundary layer thickness also fluctuates throughout the passage of the wave group. Furthermore, there are significant variations in the patterns of SSC, which occur under the largest and smallest waves in the group. Under the largest waves vertical bands of alternating high and low SSC produce an intra-wave modulation in the upper water column ( 0.075–0.30 m). The equivalent horizontal excursion of these bands scales to the ripple length. Under the smaller waves the intra-wave modulation of the SSC disappears and is replaced by temporally homogenous suspension that expands vertically through several individual wave cycles. The former pattern of homogenous suspension appears to be associated with growth of a boundary layer due to the persistent uni-directional horizontal flow during this part of the group together with the persistence of antecedent bed generated turbulence and vorticity which maintains the suspension. The latter pattern of bands of high and low SSC indicates a strong temporal and spatial constraint on the SSC (phase coupling) induced by the presence of the bedforms which may be enhanced by strong reversals in both flow and vorticity under the large waves in the group.  相似文献   

现代冲积河流的河型空间转化模式探讨   总被引：11，自引：2，他引：9  

倪晋仁  王随继  王光谦 《沉积学报》2000,18(1):1-6

论述了现代冲积河流系统中常见河型的自然分布及转化特征,归纳了河型从上游向下游发生空间转化的 5种主要模式。这些河型转化模式发生的相对频率是不同的,其中从辫状河流向曲流河流转化的发生频率最大。文中通过具体实例总结了这些转化模式分别发生时的主要影响因素。  相似文献