近20年华北地电阻率异常空间演化及强震短期前兆判别标志研究     

郑文俊  田山  邵永新 《中国地震》2005,21(2):260-268

开展了华北地电阻率异常参数提取的研究，以1980—2001年的异常参数为输入进行了全时空扫描，并对其动态图像演化做全面分析，由此提取出华北地区5级以上地震的地电阻率短期前兆的判别标志。为了进行初步检验，本文依上述判别标志对华北近年地电阻率动态图像做了对比分析。  相似文献   

Prediction of ground displacements and velocities from groundwater level changes at the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain)   总被引：2，自引：5，他引：2  

Jordi Corominas  José Moya  Alberto Ledesma  Antonio Lloret  Josep A. Gili 《Landslides》2005,2(2):83-96

In active landslides, the prediction of acceleration of movement is a crucial issue for the design and performance of warning systems. The landslide of Vallcebre in the Eastern Pyreenes, Spain, has been monitored since 1996 and data on rainfall, groundwater levels and ground displacements are measured on a regular basis. Displacements observed in borehole wire extensometers have shown an immediate response of the landslide to rainfall episodes. This rapid response is likely due to the presence of preferential drainage ways. The occurrence of nearly constant rates of displacement in coincidence with steady groundwater levels suggests the presence of viscous forces developed during the movement. An attempt to predict both landslide displacements and velocities was performed at Vallcebre by solving the momentum equation in which a viscous term (Bingham and power law) was added. Results show that, using similar rheological parameters for the entire landslide, computed displacements reproduce quite accurately the displacements observed at three selected wire extensometers. These results indicate that prediction of displacements from groundwater level changes is feasible.  相似文献   

Simulation of quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems in northern China: Lightning activities and storm structure   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wanli Li  Xiushu Qie  Shenming Fu  Debin Su  Yonghai Shen 《大气科学进展》2016,33(1):85-100

Two intense quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems(QLMCSs) in northern China were simulated using the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model and the 3D-Var(three-dimensional variational) analysis system of the ARPS(Advanced Regional Prediction System) model.A new method in which the lightning density is calculated using both the precipitation and non-precipitation ice mass was developed to reveal the relationship between the lightning activities and QLMCS structures.Results indicate that,compared with calculating the results using two previous methods,the lightning density calculated using the new method presented in this study is in better accordance with observations.Based on the calculated lightning densities using the new method,it was found that most lightning activity was initiated on the right side and at the front of the QLMCSs,where the surface wind field converged intensely.The CAPE was much stronger ahead of the southeastward progressing QLMCS than to the back it,and their lightning events mainly occurred in regions with a large gradient of CAPE.Comparisons between lightning and non-lightning regions indicated that lightning regions featured more intense ascending motion than non-lightning regions;the vertical ranges of maximum reflectivity between lightning and non-lightning regions were very different;and the ice mixing ratio featured no significant differences between the lightning and non-lightning regions.  相似文献   

Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties     

Feifan Zhou  Munehiko Yamaguchi  Xiaohao Qin 《大气科学进展》2016,33(7):841-851

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.  相似文献   

MJO prediction skill,predictability, and teleconnection impacts in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2016

This study evaluates performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model (BCC_AGCM2.2). By using the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices, it is shown that the MJO prediction skill of BCC_AGCM2.2 extends to about 16–17 days before the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient drops to 0.5 and the root-mean-square error increases to the level of the climatological prediction. The prediction skill showed a seasonal dependence, with the highest skill occurring in boreal autumn, and a phase dependence with higher skill for predictions initiated from phases 2–4. The results of the MJO predictability analysis showed that the upper bounds of the prediction skill can be extended to 26 days by using a single-member estimate, and to 42 days by using the ensemble-mean estimate, which also exhibited an initial amplitude and phase dependence. The observed relationship between the MJO and the North Atlantic Oscillation was accurately reproduced by BCC_AGCM2.2 for most initial phases of the MJO, accompanied with the Rossby wave trains in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics driven by MJO convection forcing. Overall, BCC_AGCM2.2 displayed a significant ability to predict the MJO and its teleconnections without interacting with the ocean, which provided a useful tool for fully extracting the predictability source of subseasonal prediction.  相似文献   

基于CMIP5模式的中国气候变化敏感性预估与分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

梁玉莲  韩明臣  延晓冬  赖雨薇 《气象科学》2016,36(2):158-164

以CMIP5提供的26个全球气候系统模式的温度和降水数据为基础,采用区域气候变化指数(Regional Climate Change Index,RCCI)分析中国的不同区域对21世纪气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明,三种排放情景(RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 8.5)下,21世纪全期,气候变化最敏感的区域分布在西藏地区,其次为我国西北地区以及东北地区,气候变化敏感性最低的区域分布在我国内蒙古中东部、华北地区以及长江中下游一带,且高排放情景对应更高的气候变化敏感性。对RCCI指数贡献因子分析结果表明,对中国气候变化敏感性贡献的大小依次为Δσ_TΔσ_pΔRRWAF。冬夏两季温度变化的大值区与RCCI指数的大致区分布一致,RCCI大小的分布很大程度上由温度变化的敏感性决定。而夏季降水变化的大值区主要出现在西藏地区、华南地区和东北地区,冬季降水变化的大值区则主要出现在黄河以南长江以北的中原地区以及东北地区。  相似文献   

Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan     

Aiymgul Kerimray  Kanat Baigarin  Rocco De Miglio  Giancarlo Tosato 《Climate Policy》2016,16(3):332-352

This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO₂ from combustion by about 85 MtCO₂ by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO₂ not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO₂ by 2030.  相似文献   

测绘技术进步状况和2010年定位方向预测分析     

郭淑香  刘长生 《地理信息世界》2000,(1)

该文是对测绘技术进步对经济发展的作用进行定量分析,并运用经济、数学、统计等科学方法,依据产出增长数学方程,对测绘生产单位产值增长、技术进步速度和水平等进行测算,预测２０１０年测绘生产发展规模、技术水平等,提出对策建议,供管理决策者及部门参考。  相似文献   

Wave run-up on bermed coastal structures     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

Reliable estimation of wave run-up is required for the effective and efficient design of coastal structures when flooding or wave overtopping volumes are an important consideration in the design process. In this study, a unified formula for the wave run-up on bermed structures has been developed using collected and existing data. As data on berm breakwaters was highly limited, physical model tests were conducted and the run-up was measured. Conventional governing parameters and influencing factors were then used to predict the dimensionless run-up level with 2% exceedance probability. The developed formula includes the effect of water depth which is required in understanding the influence of sea level rise and consequent changes of wave height to water depth ratio on the future hydraulic performance of the structures. The accuracy measures such as RMSE and Bias indicated that the developed formula is more accurate than the existing formulas. Additionally, the new formula was validated using field measurements and its superiority was observed when compared to the existing prediction formulas. Finally, the new design formula incorporating the partial safety factor was introduced as a design tool for engineers.  相似文献   

基于EMD方法的地心运动时间序列分析     

乔灵娜  赵春梅  马天明 《测绘通报》2019,(2):6-11

针对时间序列混有的高频信息会影响地心运动规律分析的问题,采用网平移法对IGS提供的GNSS周解进行解算,得到2007-2017年地心运动时间序列,对其进行分解重构,剔除高频项,并利用重构时序对地心运动规律作进一步分析探讨。结果表明：本文解算的地心运动在T_x、T_y和T_z方向的精度均为毫米级。EMD方法重构的时序保留了原序列的基本信息,且抑制了高频项的影响,提高了周期贡献率,3个方向的贡献率分别提高了12.3%、16.7%及6.3%。通过分析重构后的时序发现,周年项振幅为各周期对应振幅的最大值,分别为2.32、1.89和2.07 mm;T_y和T_z方向长期变化趋势较T_x更为明显,分别为0.13和-0.27 mm/a;半年项较小,且在T_x和T_y方向上具有时变性。此外,还发现了一些其他较小的年际变化。  相似文献